Urban pluvial flood modelling with real time rainfall information – UK case studies

FRMRC2 (Flood Risk Management Research Consortium: Phase 2) Work package 3.6. Review paperIn order to effectively prevent, mitigate and manage urban pluvial flooding, it is necessary to accurately model and predict the spatial and temporal distribution of both rainfall and surface flooding. A number of different modelling and prediction techniques have been applied to three UK case studies. The case studies illustrated potential improvements in the duration of model simulations as well as localised rainfall estimation (downscaling). A method of describing uncertainty in flow forecasts has been illustrated. The provision of urban pluvial flood forecasts, however, remains a challenging issue and it is anticipated that a combination of several techniques may be necessary, depending on catchment size and required forecast accuracy and lead time.Defra; Environment Agency; EPSRC; Irish Office of Public Works; Scottish Rivers Agency; SNIFFE

Medical Management of Renal Cell Cancer

In 2018, there were an estimated 400,000 new cases of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) worldwide—with 64,000 cases in the United States and 12,600 in the United Kingdom (UK). The medical management of RCC is an integral part of treatment as between one-quarter and one-third of patients will present with metastatic disease. There has been a rapid evolution of targeted and novel treatments for RCC over the last two decades. This chapter explores the biology of renal cell carcinoma and current treatment strategies

Clinical and Patient-reported Outcome Measures in Men Referred for Consideration of Surgery to Treat Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms:Baseline Results and Diagnostic Findings of the Urodynamics for Prostate Surgery Trial; Randomised Evaluation of Assessment Methods (UPSTREAM)

Background: Clinical evaluation of male lower urinary tract symptoms (MLUTS) in secondary care uses a range of assessments. It is unknown how MLUTS evaluation influences outcome of therapy recommendations and choice, notably urodynamics (UDS; filling cystometry and pressure flow studies). Objective: To report participants’ sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and initial diagnostic findings of the Urodynamics for Prostate Surgery Trial; Randomised Evaluation of Assessment Methods (UPSTREAM). UPSTREAM is a randomised controlled trial evaluating whether symptoms are noninferior and surgery rates are lower if UDS is included. Design, setting, and participants: A total of 820 men (≥18 yr of age) seeking treatment for bothersome LUTS were recruited from 26 National Health Service hospital urology departments. Intervention: Care pathway based on routine, noninvasive tests (control) or routine care plus UDS (intervention arm). Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The primary outcome is International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and the key secondary outcome is surgery rates 18 mo after randomisation. International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaires were captured for MLUTS, sexual function, and UDS satisfaction. Baseline clinical and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), and UDS findings were informally compared between arms. Trends across age groups for urinary and sexual PROMs were evaluated with a Cuzick's test, and questionnaire items were compared using Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results and limitations: Storage LUTS, notably nocturia, and impaired sexual function are prominent in men being assessed for surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical evaluations were similar between arms. Overall mean IPSS and quality of life scores were 18.94 and 4.13, respectively. Trends were found across age groups, with older men suffering from higher rates of incontinence, nocturia, and erectile dysfunction, and younger men suffering from increased daytime frequency and voiding symptoms. Men undergoing UDS testing expressed high satisfaction with the procedure. Conclusions: Men being considered for surgery have additional clinical features that may affect treatment decision making and outcomes, notably storage LUTS and impaired sexual function. Patient summary: We describe initial assessment findings from a large clinical study of the treatment pathway for men suffering with bothersome urinary symptoms who were referred to hospital for further treatment, potentially including surgery. We report the patient characteristics and diagnostic test results, including symptom questionnaires, bladder diaries, flow rate tests, and urodynamics.</p

ANDES, the high-resolution spectrograph for the ELT: RIZ Spectrograph preliminary design

We present here the preliminary design of the RIZ module, one of the visible spectrographs of the ANDES instrument 1. It is a fiber-fed high-resolution, high-stability spectrograph. Its design follows the guidelines of successful predecessors such as HARPS and ESPRESSO. In this paper we present the status of the spectrograph at the preliminary design stage. The spectrograph will be a warm, vacuum-operated, thermally controlled and fiber-fed echelle spectrograph. Following the phase A design, the huge etendue of the telescope will be reformed in the instrument with a long slit made of smaller fibers. We discuss the system design of the spectrographs system.Comment: Paper submitted to the SPIE astronomical telescope and instrumentation 2024, conference title : Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation for Astronomy X, paper reference number : 13096-17

Influenza vaccination of pregnant women and protection of their infants

BACKGROUND There are limited data on the efficacy of vaccination against confirmed influenza in pregnant women with and those without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and protection of their infants. METHODS We conducted two double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3) in South Africa during 2011 in pregnant women infected with HIV and during 2011 and 2012 in pregnant women who were not infected. The immunogenicity, safety, and efficacy of IIV3 in pregnant women and their infants were evaluated until 24 weeks after birth. Immune responses were measured with a hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay, and influenza was diagnosed by means of reverse-transcriptase–polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assays of respiratory samples. RESULTS The study cohorts included 2116 pregnant women who were not infected with HIV and 194 pregnant women who were infected with HIV. At 1 month after vaccination, seroconversion rates and the proportion of participants with HAI titers of 1:40 or more were higher among IIV3 recipients than among placebo recipients in both cohorts. Newborns of IIV3 recipients also had higher HAI titers than newborns of placebo recipients. The attack rate for RT-PCR–confirmed influenza among both HIV-uninfected placebo recipients and their infants was 3.6%. The attack rates among HIV-uninfected IIV3 recipients and their infants were 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively, and the respective vaccine-efficacy rates were 50.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.5 to 71.2) and 48.8% (95% CI, 11.6 to 70.4). Among HIV-infected women, the attack rate for placebo recipients was 17.0% and the rate for IIV3 recipients was 7.0%; the vaccine-efficacy rate for these IIV3 recipients was 57.7% (95% CI, 0.2 to 82.1). CONCLUSIONS Influenza vaccine was immunogenic in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected pregnant women and provided partial protection against confirmed influenza in both groups of women and in infants who were not exposed to HIV. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01306669 and NCT01306682.)The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1002747), the National Institutes of Health, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Colorado Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute (UL1 TR000154, for REDCap), the South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Technology and National Research Foundation in Vaccine-Preventable Diseases, and the Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit of the Medical Research Council.http://www.nejm.org/am201

Impact of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the outcome of neurosurgical patients: A nationwide study in Spain

Objective To assess the effect of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the outcome of neurosurgical patients in Spain. Settings The initial flood of COVID-19 patients overwhelmed an unprepared healthcare system. Different measures were taken to deal with this overburden. The effect of these measures on neurosurgical patients, as well as the effect of COVID-19 itself, has not been thoroughly studied. Participants This was a multicentre, nationwide, observational retrospective study of patients who underwent any neurosurgical operation from March to July 2020. Interventions An exploratory factorial analysis was performed to select the most relevant variables of the sample. Primary and secondary outcome measures Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of mortality and postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Sixteen hospitals registered 1677 operated patients. The overall mortality was 6.4%, and 2.9% (44 patients) suffered a perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of those infections, 24 were diagnosed postoperatively. Age (OR 1.05), perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 4.7), community COVID-19 incidence (cases/10 5 people/week) (OR 1.006), postoperative neurological worsening (OR 5.9), postoperative need for airway support (OR 5.38), ASA grade =3 (OR 2.5) and preoperative GCS 3-8 (OR 2.82) were independently associated with mortality. For SARS-CoV-2 postoperative infection, screening swab test <72 hours preoperatively (OR 0.76), community COVID-19 incidence (cases/10 5 people/week) (OR 1.011), preoperative cognitive impairment (OR 2.784), postoperative sepsis (OR 3.807) and an absence of postoperative complications (OR 0.188) were independently associated. Conclusions Perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in neurosurgical patients was associated with an increase in mortality by almost fivefold. Community COVID-19 incidence (cases/10 5 people/week) was a statistically independent predictor of mortality. Trial registration number CEIM 20/217

Machine Learning and External Validation of the IDENTIFY Risk Calculator for Patients with Haematuria Referred to Secondary Care for Suspected Urinary Tract Cancer

Background: The IDENTIFY study developed a model to predict urinary tract cancer using patient characteristics from a large multicentre, international cohort of patients referred with haematuria. In addition to calculating an individual's cancer risk, it proposes thresholds to stratify them into very-low-risk (<1%), low-risk (1–<5%), intermediate-risk (5–<20%), and high-risk (≥20%) groups. Objective: To externally validate the IDENTIFY haematuria risk calculator and compare traditional regression with machine learning algorithms. Design, setting, and participants: Prospective data were collected on patients referred to secondary care with new haematuria. Data were collected for patient variables included in the IDENTIFY risk calculator, cancer outcome, and TNM staging. Machine learning methods were used to evaluate whether better models than those developed with traditional regression methods existed. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the detection of urinary tract cancer, calibration coefficient, calibration in the large (CITL), and Brier score were determined. Results and limitations: There were 3582 patients in the validation cohort. The development and validation cohorts were well matched. The AUC of the IDENTIFY risk calculator on the validation cohort was 0.78. This improved to 0.80 on a subanalysis of urothelial cancer prevalent countries alone, with a calibration slope of 1.04, CITL of 0.24, and Brier score of 0.14. The best machine learning model was Random Forest, which achieved an AUC of 0.76 on the validation cohort. There were no cancers stratified to the very-low-risk group in the validation cohort. Most cancers were stratified to the intermediate- and high-risk groups, with more aggressive cancers in higher-risk groups. Conclusions: The IDENTIFY risk calculator performed well at predicting cancer in patients referred with haematuria on external validation. This tool can be used by urologists to better counsel patients on their cancer risks, to prioritise diagnostic resources on appropriate patients, and to avoid unnecessary invasive procedures in those with a very low risk of cancer. Patient summary: We previously developed a calculator that predicts patients’ risk of cancer when they have blood in their urine, based on their personal characteristics. We have validated this risk calculator, by testing it on a separate group of patients to ensure that it works as expected. Most patients found to have cancer tended to be in the higher-risk groups and had more aggressive types of cancer with a higher risk. This tool can be used by clinicians to fast-track high-risk patients based on the calculator and investigate them more thoroughly

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Points-based physical activity: a novel approach to facilitate changes in body composition in inactive women with overweight and obesity

Background Physical activity (PA) interventions for the promotion of weight-management may benefit from increased choice and flexibility to overcome commonly-perceived barriers to PA. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a novel “points-based” approach to PA on body composition in inactive women, who are overweight or obese. Methods Seventy-six overweight or obese, inactive women were randomly allocated to one of three conditions: ‘Points-based’ PA (PBPA; 30 “PA points”•week− 1), Structured exercise (StructEx; 150 min moderate-intensity exercise•week− 1) or control (CONT; continue habitual inactive lifestyle) for a 24-week intervention. PA points for activities were adapted from MET values, and 30 points was equivalent to 150 min of brisk walking. Measures of body composition (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry) and anthropometry were obtained at weeks 0, 4, 12 and 24. Self-report activities were recorded weekly, with objective measures of PA (tri-axial accelerometry) and self-report measures of food intake obtained at weeks 0 and 24. Results Fifty-eight women completed the study and provided data for primary outcomes. Of these, n = 41 and n = 19 provided data for food intake and objectively assessed PA. Mixed-design ANOVAs demonstrated that those in PBPA achieved a significant weight-loss at 24 weeks of − 3.3 ± 5.9 kg (− 3.4 ± 7.1%, p = 0.004). Waist circumference was reduced in PBPA at 24 weeks (− 2.8 ± 4.6 cm), compared with CONT (+ 2.1 ± 6.6 cm, p = 0.024). There was a trend for greater reductions in fat mass for those in PBPA vs. CONT (− 2.3 ± 4.6 kg vs. + 0.1 ± 2.0 kg, p = 0.075). Android fat was reduced in PBPA at both 12 weeks (− 6.1 ± 12.6%, p = 0.005) and 24 weeks (− 10.1 ± 18.4%, p = 0.005), while there was a trend for greater reductions in visceral adipose tissue in PBPA (− 5.8 ± 26.0%) vs. CONT at 24 weeks (+ 7.8 ± 18.3%, p = 0.053). Body composition, body weight and waist circumference were unchanged in StructEx. There were trends for increases in light-activity and reductions in sedentary time in PBPA. There was a trend for a reduction in daily energy intake of − 445 ± 564 kcal (p = 0.074), and a significant reduction in daily fat intake (p = 0.042) in PBPA. Conclusion A “points-based” approach to physical activity appears to be an effective strategy for inducing modest reductions in body weight and body fat in inactive women with overweight and obesity