Active hedge: hedge meets active learning

Agmt dtd 12/16/2022 - LongShortWay, Inc; W911NF2110246 - Department of Defense/ARO; CCF-2007350 - National Science Foundation; CCF-1955981 - National Science Foundationhttps://proceedings.mlr.press/v162/kumar22a/kumar22a.pdfPublished versio

U.S. Strategic Options towards Iran: Understanding the U.S.–Iranian Relations through Iranian Domestic Politics

The ongoing nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran have made greater progress on more substantial issues than any previous talks. This report argues that Iran’s unprecedented willingness to negotiate is strongly influenced by two factors: a united P5+1 and more importantly, a convergence of interests among Iran’s domestic factions. While there has long been knowledge of the challenges posed by Iran’s often-competing factions, no other study pinpoints them as a primary variable in the nuclear negotiations. Based on 50 interviews with high-level Iran experts and government officials and independent research, our study provides a unique framework for understanding the dynamics of Iranian domestic politics and its impact on the efficacy of U.S. policies. This study considers three scenarios the U.S. could encounter on July 20, 2014, when the current Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) expires: the P5+1 and Iran could sign a comprehensive deal; another interim deal could be reached; or negotiations could break down. The common thread throughout these recommendations is that the U.S. must find a way to capitalize on the factional convergence and avoid undermining it. The U.S. should always negotiate with Iran as a unitary actor, rather than favor certain factions; avoid measures that prompt one faction to undercut another faction; and understand that while not unique in having domestic competition, Iran’s political factions have a stronger effect on the success of negotiations than many have realized. If a comprehensive agreement is reached, we recommend pursuing limited engagement that seeks to broaden cooperation with Iran by working on issues that interest all Iranian factions, while also having deterrent threats in place should Iran renege. In the case of another interim deal, we recommend that the U.S. embrace balanced diplomacy, which increases the level of positive and negative inducements meant to persuade Iran to reach a comprehensive agreement. This recommendation, which mimics current U.S. policy, should focus solely on nuclear issues, unlike the first scenario. If nuclear negotiations break down, we recommend coercive diplomacy that involves gradual pressure, ranging from increased sanctions to authorizing the use of force. The challenge here is credibly threatening Iran without alienating the other P5+1 members or pushing Iran’s factions to unite against the United States. In all future negotiations, the U.S. should capitalize on Iranian domestic convergences and engage Iran as a whole.United States State Departmen

Collage Vol. II

JUDY COCHRAN: Editorial, 4-5 ROBERTA CHAPMEN: Photo, 6 ANITRA CHUGHTAI (Translations): Haikus, 7 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 8 MARK VANDERLINDE-ABERNATHY, ALYSSA LANDRY (Translator): Memories of a Spider (Les souvenirs d\u27une araignee), 9 MARK VANDERLINE-ABERNATHY, AMY NORSKOG (Translator): Tomato Fields (Champ de tomates), 10 SARAH BISHOP, HEFEDH ZANINA (Translator): Dear John (Cher John), 11 RYAN BUTZ (Translator): Basho\u27s Haiku, Issa\u27s Haiku, 12-13 JENNIFER HUMBERT, FADOUA EL BOUAMRAOUI (Translator): Pressed Lips (Levres Serrees), 15 ADELE REEVES (Translator): Contemporary song by Mr. Children, 16-17 BRODY PAGEL, GRACE DUGAR (Translator): The Lizard King (Le Roi Lezard), 18 JIMMY PIPKIN (Translator): In Love with You, 19 MOLLY ROSCOE: Saturday Night at Rusty\u27s (Samedi Soir a Rusty\u27s), 20 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 21 MATT MESSMER (Translator): Waseda University School Song, 22-23 TIMOTHY COOPER: Wenn du grosh bist… (When you\u27re Tall…), 24 DAVID HARMAN: Der Dunkle Stern (The Dark Star), 25 ANN TOWNSEND, JUDY COCHRAN (Translator): From a Window (D\u27une Fenetre), 26-27 SARA CAHILL: El sauce lloron (The Weeping Willow), 28-32 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 30 JENNIFER HUMBERT, MATT BISHOP: Past, Present (passe, present), 33 CAROL GENEYA KAPLAN, FADOUA EL BOUAMRAOUI (Translator): Une Autre Femme (Another Woman), 34-35 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 36 ANN TOWNSEND, JUDY COCHRAN (Translator): The Mowers (Les Faucheurs), 37 PRISCILLA PATON: Photo, 38 GONZALO TUESTA: La Grande Dame De Paris (The Great Lady of Paris), 39 SARAH PILLERDORF (Translator): Japanese Cartoons by Tezuka Osamu, 41-45 DANIELLE GERKEN: Schuhe der Heimat (Boots of Home), 47 CURTIS PLOWGIAN: Le peste de la langue francaise, 48-52 PRISCILLA PATON: Photo, 50 ZANE HOUSEHOLDER: Vive la Republique! (Film), 54 JENNIFER ZIMMER: EL tenis y las frustraciones (Tennis and Frustrations), La tumba de Ben (Ben\u27s Grave), 56-57 AUTUMN LOTZE: Times Square in the rain, 58-59 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 60 STEPHEN M. JULKA: Colors of the Earth, 61 THOMAS BRESSOUD: Java, 62 ERIC NELSON: World, 63 SARAH CLAPP (Translator): At a long day\u27s end (Natsume Soseki), A friend has come and is now leaving, Eating persimmons (Masaoka Shiki), 64 CHARLES O\u27KEEFE: Photo, 65 JOHN BURZYNSKI, MEGAN FETTER (Translator): Home is where the heart is, 66 RICHARD BANAHAN: Photo, 67 KIM FREEMAN: Baltimore, 68 JACOB RIDRIGUEZ-NOBLE: Home (Heimat), 69 SUZANNE KENNEDY: Oft verberge ich mich (Oft I hide myself), 70 RICHARD BANAHAN: Photo, 7

Knowledge transfer and management in tourism organisations: an emerging research agenda

Authors' final draft version. Final version published in Tourism Management; available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com/This paper reviews current research on knowledge management and knowledge transfer in the context of innovations. Specific attention is focussed on the integration of management perspectives into tourism research. The paper explores some of the key mechanisms and conduits of knowledge transfer within tourism. In doing so it explores such concepts as interlocking directorships, communities of practice, learning regions and labour mobility. There is also an emerging research agenda on knowledge management within tourism but progress is variable with most research being within the hotel sector, where a range of recent studies have examined aspects of knowledge transfer. The paper also draws attention to the need to give closer attention to the nature of innovations within tourism and to consider these in a knowledge management framework

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

U.S. Strategic Options towards Iran: Understanding the U.S.–Iranian Relations through Iranian Domestic Politics

The ongoing nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran have made greater progress on more substantial issues than any previous talks. This report argues that Iran’s unprecedented willingness to negotiate is strongly influenced by two factors: a united P5+1 and more importantly, a convergence of interests among Iran’s domestic factions. While there has long been knowledge of the challenges posed by Iran’s often-competing factions, no other study pinpoints them as a primary variable in the nuclear negotiations. Based on 50 interviews with high-level Iran experts and government officials and independent research, our study provides a unique framework for understanding the dynamics of Iranian domestic politics and its impact on the efficacy of U.S. policies. This study considers three scenarios the U.S. could encounter on July 20, 2014, when the current Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) expires: the P5+1 and Iran could sign a comprehensive deal; another interim deal could be reached; or negotiations could break down. The common thread throughout these recommendations is that the U.S. must find a way to capitalize on the factional convergence and avoid undermining it. The U.S. should always negotiate with Iran as a unitary actor, rather than favor certain factions; avoid measures that prompt one faction to undercut another faction; and understand that while not unique in having domestic competition, Iran’s political factions have a stronger effect on the success of negotiations than many have realized. If a comprehensive agreement is reached, we recommend pursuing limited engagement that seeks to broaden cooperation with Iran by working on issues that interest all Iranian factions, while also having deterrent threats in place should Iran renege. In the case of another interim deal, we recommend that the U.S. embrace balanced diplomacy, which increases the level of positive and negative inducements meant to persuade Iran to reach a comprehensive agreement. This recommendation, which mimics current U.S. policy, should focus solely on nuclear issues, unlike the first scenario. If nuclear negotiations break down, we recommend coercive diplomacy that involves gradual pressure, ranging from increased sanctions to authorizing the use of force. The challenge here is credibly threatening Iran without alienating the other P5+1 members or pushing Iran’s factions to unite against the United States. In all future negotiations, the U.S. should capitalize on Iranian domestic convergences and engage Iran as a whole.United States State Departmen