Cancelled M&A deals and target shareholder returns

This thesis investigates the effect terminated M&A deals have on the share prices of acquisition targets. The share price development is examined up to 20 days before and 20 days after the deal’s termination announcement date, due to the findings of previous studies which conclude that prices return to pre-offer levels in the long run. Furthermore, this thesis analyses whether the market response to terminated M&A deals has changed during the 21st century. As the previous research has mainly focused on cancelled transactions in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s, this thesis contributes to the existing literature by studying recent M&A withdrawals in the UK. The sample of this study covers 42 unsuccessful M&A deals between the years 2004 and 2020 in which the target company was listed in the London Stock Exchange. The investor reaction to M&A termination announcements is studied by calculating the expected and abnormal returns with market model methodology. The expected return of the target companies for each event day is estimated over a period of 120 days. The abnormal returns, which reflect the market response to new and unexpected information, are examined over event windows of various length. Negative and statistically significant abnormal returns are found around the termination announcement date. Consistent with the results of previous studies conducted in the US, target shareholder returns begin to decline a few days before the announcement but the negative price effect seems to diminish with time, as positive returns are found after the announcement for event windows of +6 to +10, +11 to +15 and +16 to +20 days. On the other hand, the results indicate that the investor reaction to cancelled M&A deals has changed over the recent years. The cumulative average abnormal return of terminated deals between the years 2004 to 2011 is more negative over each event window than the respective return of terminated deals between the years 2012 and 2019. The findings suggest that the stock market considers M&A termination announcements as major and meaningful events. The returns of acquisition targets decrease significantly around the announcement but begin to recover within a few days after the event. The results also indicate that the London Stock Exchange should not be considered as fully informationally efficient because target returns continue to decrease further on event date +2, thus indicating that the announcement’s new and unexpected information is not fully incorporated into share prices immediately after the event.Tämä pro gradu -tutkielma tarkastelee peruuntuneiden yritysjärjestelyiden vaikutusta kaupan kohteena olleen yhtiön osakekurssiin. Kohdeyhtiöiden kurssikehitystä tarkastellaan aikavälillä 20 päivää ennen ja 20 päivää yrityskaupan peruuntumispäivämäärän jälkeen, johtuen aikaisempien tutkimusten tuloksista jotka viittaavat siihen että hinnat palaavat suunniteltua kauppaa edeltävälle tasolle pitkällä aikavälillä. Lisäksi tässä työssä tutkitaan, onko markkinoiden keskimääräinen reaktio peruuntuneisiin yrityskauppoihin muuttunut jollakin tapaa 2000-luvun aikana. Aiempien tutkimusten keskittyessä pääasiassa peruuntuneisiin kauppoihin Yhdysvaltojen markkinoilla 1980- ja 1990-lukujen aikana, tämä tutkielma pyrkii täydentämään olemassa olevaa kirjallisuutta analysoimalla viimeaikaisia epäonnistuneita yritysjärjestelyitä Iso- Britannian markkinoilla. Tämä tutkimus kattaa kaikkiaan 42 peruuntunutta yritysjärjestelyä vuosina 2004–2020, joissa kaupan kohdeyhtiö oli listattuna Lontoon pörssissä. Sijoittajien reaktioita lehdistötiedotteisiin yrityskauppojen peruuntumisesta tutkitaan laskemalla yhtiöiden odotetut ja poikkeavat tuotot markkinamallimenetelmällä. Kohdeyhtiöiden kunkin päivän odotettu tuotto arvioidaan 120 päivän ajanjakson aikana. Poikkeavat tuotot, joita tutkitaan eripituisten tarkasteluaikavälien sisällä, heijastavat markkinoiden reaktiota uuteen ja odottamattomaan tietoon. Kohdeyhtiöillä havaitaan negatiivisia ja tilastollisesti merkitseviä poikkeavia tuottoja yrityskaupan peruuntumispäivämäärän tienoilla. Aiempien yhdysvaltalaistutkimusten tapaan kohdeyhtiöiden osakkeen hinta alkaa laskea muutama päivä ennen peruuntumisilmoitusta, mutta negatiivinen hintavaikutus näyttää heikentyvän ajan myötä, sillä osakkeenomistajien tuotot ovat positiivisia tapahtuman jälkeen tarkasteluaikaväleillä +6 ja +10, +11 ja +15 sekä +16 ja +20 päivää. Toisaalta tulokset osoittavat että sijoittajat reagoivat peruutettuihin yritysjärjestelyihin eri tavalla kuin aikaisemmin. Vuosien 2004 ja 2011 välillä peruuntuneiden yrityskauppojen kumulatiivinen keskimääräinen poikkeava tuotto on negatiivisempi jokaisella tarkasteluaikavälillä kuin vuosien 2012 ja 2019 välillä peruutettujen kauppojen vastaava tuotto. Tulokset osoittavat, että osakemarkkinat mieltävät yrityskauppojen peruuntumisilmoitukset tärkeiksi ja merkittävinä tapahtumiksi. Kaupan kohteena olleiden yhtiöiden tuotot laskevat merkittävästi ilmoituspäivämäärän ympärillä, mutta alkavat palaamaan kohti aiempaa tasoa muutama päivä tapahtuman jälkeen. Tulokset viittaavat myös siihen että Lontoon pörssiä ei voida pitää täysin informatiivisesti tehokkaana, sillä kohdeyhtiöiden tuotot laskevat edelleen peruuntumisilmoituksen jälkeisenä päivänä +2, mikä osoittaa että ilmoituksen sisältämä uusi ja odottamaton informaatio ei välity täysimääräisenä osakekursseihin heti tapahtuman jälkeen

Working while travelling: Tourism development opportunities for agricultural regions

While the backpacker visitor has received increasing attention over the past several decades, the notion of backpackers who work during their travels, despite some exceptions, has not been considered in such detail. Therefore, this paper examines the concept of the working backpacker and considers the opportunities this market subset can offer rural and regional areas. Utilising an Australian case study where 234 working backpacker visitors were surveyed; a preliminary analysis of this market is presented as well as the identification of possible implications and opportunities for rural and regional areas, particularly where agriculture dominates the local economic base. The study found that working backpackers, although visiting the area solely for employment purposes, still stimulate demand for tourism products and activities that showcase local assets and culture. Coupled with the fact that working backpackers often stay in these regions for a considerable length of time, the research shows that there is an opportunity for regional and rural areas is to capitalise on this opportunity and expand the economic base by value adding to the working backpackers’ experience through the provision of simple services and activities that backpackers can participate in during their leisure time. It is suggested that such efforts can generate significant economic opportunities for the region through tourism

Seasonality in EPS Forecast Errors in the Finnish Stock Market – Seasonal Affective Disorder or Fundamental Driven?

EPS forecasts are one of the most important factors affecting stock prices. Previous literature has identified seasonality in analysts’ EPS forecast error. While traditional finance intends to explain the seasonality with firm fundamentals, behavioral finance emphasizes cognitive explanations. One such explanation is Seasonal Affective Disorder, according to which forecasts become more pessimistic as depression increases in the fall. The main purpose of this thesis is to identify if SAD effect explains forecast error seasonality in EPS consensus estimates with a 1-year horizon, or if the error is explainable by traditional factors. Since previous literature combining analysts and SAD effect is based on data from the US, this thesis uses unique data from Finnish stock markets, where the effect should be theoretically stronger. Seasonality in EPS forecast error is studied with panel data consisting of 3665 common observations between 2010 and 2014. Along with SAD effect, independent variables control for firm specific fundamentals, changes in macroeconomic conditions, and analyst related factors. Regression analysis is performed for different subsamples according to firm size and forecast season. Validity of the results is verified by additional robustness tests that control for weaknesses in the methodology and possible inappropriate independent variables. The results show general optimism, which is greater for small firms, and a seasonal pattern in forecast error. For full sample, the forecasts are 28.2% too optimistic on average. The error is the smallest in January (14.6%), peaks in March (38.2%), declines until September (21.8%), and stays flat for the year-end. Although there is weak pro SAD effect evidence, this is mitigated by robustness tests and inconsistent findings for small firms. Positive relationship is found between forecast error and previous quarter actual EPS suggesting that positive momentum decreases forecast error. Information asymmetry and analyst uncertainty about a firm’s earnings, on the other hand, are negatively related to forecast error and an increase in the variables causes higher optimism. Overall, the evidence suggests that in the setup fundamentals and analyst related factors drive forecast error instead of SAD effect. Although forecast error is not fully explainable by the chosen factors, this thesis presents a clear seasonal pattern, which is stronger for small firms, which helps investors to correct the bias in estimates.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Inferences of magma interaction processes from mineral chemistry and geothermobarometry of mingled and mixed rock types in the Ahvenisto complex, SE Finland

1.64 Ga Ahveniston anortosiitti-mangeriitti-charnokiitti-graniitti (AMCG) -kompleksi sijaitsee Kaakkois-Suomessa. Aiemmissa tutkimuksissa alueelta on havaittu löytyvän magman vuorovaikutusrakenteita, jotka ovat syntyneet magman sekoittumisen ja sekaantumisen myötä. Nämä rakenteet muodostavat alueita, joissa sekoittuminen esiintyy monzodioriittisten tyynyjen ja graniittisten juonien synnyttäminä verkko-juoni (net-veined) komplekseina. Monzodioriittiset ja graniittiset magmat ovat sekoittuessaan muodostaneet koostumukseltaan keskiasteisia hybridikiviä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli raportoida monzodioriittisten kivien, sarvivälkegraniitin ja hybridikivien päämineraalien (plagioklaasi, kalimaasälpä, amfiboli, pyrokseeni) pääalkuaineiden mineraalikoostumus sekä testata geotermobarometrien soveltumista magman eri vuorovaikutusrakenteisiin liittyvien kivityyppien kiteytymispaineiden ja -lämpötilojen arvioimiseen. Ahveniston kompleksin magman vuorovaikutusrakenteet voidaan tunnistaa magman sekoittumiseen ja sekkantumiseen liittyvien kivityyppien mineraalikemiassa. Mineraalikemia vahvistaa, että sarvivälkegraniitti on sekoittumissarjan primitiivisin graniittifaasi ja, että sen mineraalikoostumus kehittyy sekoittumisen myötä siirryttäessä sarjassa kohti lopullista hybridikiveä. Monzodioriittien mineraalikemia paljastaa, että Ahveniston monzodioriittisten kivien mineraalikoostumuksessa on alueellisia eroja, joiden perusteella ne voidaan tunnistaa. Sarvivälke-plagioklaasi termobarometrejä ja kahden pyrokseenin termometrejä käytettiin Ahveniston kompleksin paikalleen asettumisen olosuhteiden selvittämiseen ja tuloksia verrattiin aiempiin tutkimuksiin. Sarvivälke-plagioklaasi termobarometrit ehdottivat sekoittumisrakenteisiin liittyvien kivien kiteytymislämpötilaksi ~790–860°C. Lähdeaineiston perusteella todennäköisiksi paineolosuhteiksi valittiin 100 MPa ja 300 MPa. Tulosten perusteella voidaan kuitenkin päätellä, että paineella on ollut vain vähäinen vaikutus kiteytymislämpötiloihin. Kahden pyrokseenin termometrien perusteella voidaan monzodioriittisissä kivissä erotella samankaltainen alueellinen ero myös kiteytymislämpötilojen suhteen, kuten mineraalikoostumuksen suhteen. Kahden pyrokseenin thermometrien lämpötilatuloksissa esiintyy jonkin verran vaihtelua, joka aiheuttaa epävarmuutta tulosten tulkinnassa, Vaihtelu selittyy sillä, että termometrien kalibrointistandardit eivät kata Ahveniston kompleksin mafisten silikaattimineraalien kaltaista, erittäin korkean Fe/Mg suhteen omaavaa mineraaliparageneesiä.The 1.64 Ga Ahvenisto complex in the southeastern Finland, is an anorthosite-mangerite-charnokite-granite (AMCG) suite, which has been discovered to host conspicuous magma interaction structures formed in magma mixing and mingling. These structures form areas where the consequences of mingling are found as monzodioritic pillows and granitic veins forming net-veined complexes. Mixing of monzodioritic and hornblende granitic magmas has produced hybrid rocks with intermediate composition. The main goals of the study were to report the major element mineral chemistry of the main minerals (plagioclase, alkali-feldspar, amphibole, and pyroxene) from the hybrid rocks, hornblende granite, and monzodiorite and to test the suitability of geothermobarometric methods for the rock types related to the different magma interaction structures and to evaluate crystallization pressures and temperatures of the pertinent magmas. The magma interaction structures of the Ahvenisto complex are recognized in the mineral chemistry of the mingling and mixing related rocks. The mineral chemistry confirms that the hornblende-granite represents the most primitive granitic phase in the mixing set and the composition of the minerals change as the mixing proceeds towards the final hybrid rock. The mineral chemistry from the monzodiorites reveals that the monzodiorites from different areas of the Ahvenisto complex have distinguished features and they can be separated by their composition. Hornblende-plagioclase thermobarometers and two-pyroxene thermometers were used, and the results were compared to the previous studies related to the emplacement conditions of the Ahvenisto complex. The hornblende-plagioclase thermobarometers suggest that the crystallization of the mixing related rocks took place at ~790–860°C. For the temperature results, pressures of 100 MPa and 300 MPa were used based on earlier studies and a conclusion is drawn that the pressure has had only minor impact on the temperature. The two-pyroxene thermometers show similar regional difference for the crystallization temperatures of the monzodioritic rocks as recognized in the mineral chemistry. The results from the two-pyroxene thermometers show wider variation in the temperatures, which leaves some uncertainty on the liability of the results. The variation is mainly explained by the mineral chemistry of the mafic silicate minerals in the Ahvenisto complex rocks being very iron-rich and outside the calibration standards of the geothermobarometers

Kehitysyhteistyötä matkailun avulla. Case: Nalare-naisryhmä Keniassa

Tämä opinnäytetyö pyrkii antamaan eettisesti ja ekologisesti kestävän kehityksen mukaisia kehittämisideoita Nalare-naisryhmän perustamalle ja ylläpitämälle matkailukylälle Pohjois-Keniassa Nalare-Satiman alueella. Pohjana matkailukylän kehittämiselle on halu tehdä Nalare-naisryhmää konkreettisesti avustavaa kehitysyhteistyötä matkailun ideoinnin ja toteutuksen avulla. Tässä kehitysyhteistyössä punaisena lankana on naisten omien toiveiden, ympäristön ja kulttuurin säilymisen huomioon ottaminen. Kehitysyhteistyössä matkailun avulla ulkopuolinen osapuoli voi auttaa Nalare-naisryhmää näkemään potentiaalisia kehityssuuntia matkailutuotteelleen, auttaa valitsemaan sopivan kohderyhmän, jolla on kiinnostusta tuotteeseen ja auttaa tuotteen lopullisessa hiomisessa ja markkinoinnissa. Teoriapohjana opinnäytetyössä käytettiin kehityksen käsitettä, kehitysyhteistyötä, matkailun kestävää kehitystä, naisryhmiä ja –järjestöjä, sekä valittua tutkimusmenetelmää käsittelevään kirjallisuutta, internet-lähteitä ja tieteellisiä artikkeleita. Työssä esitellään Samburu-heimon kulttuuria ja elämää, sillä nämä muodostavat oman osansa matkailutuotteen vetovoimasta. Tut-kimuksen tärkeimpiä yksittäisiä havaintoja ovat osallistavan kehitysyhteistyön positiiviset vaikutukset ja naisten voimauttaminen matkailutuotteen kehittämisen kautta. Näillä molemmilla ilmiöillä on kauaskantoiset vaikutukset naisten perheisiin ja lopulta koko yhteisöön. Tässä opinnäytetyössä mietitään myös Samburuiden perinteiseen kulttuuriin kuuluvien negatiivisten tapojen merkitystä matkailuun alueella ja miten Samburuiden tietoisuutta tapojen haitallisuudesta olisi mahdollista lisätä. Varsinaista vaikutusta matkailuun esimerkiksi tyttöjen ympärileikkauksella ei tietenkään ole, mutta mietimme miksi matkailijoiden on tärkeää tiedostaa nämä tavat matkatessaan alueelle. Lopputuloksena esitellään kehitysehdotuksia ja mahdollisuuksia jatkotutkimuksille. Kaikkein tärkein askel tästä eteenpäin on naisten omien mielipiteiden ja toiveiden tutkiminen mahdol-lisimman tarkkaan ja puolueettoman taitavan tulkin avustuksella. Koeryhmän avulla on selvitetty mitä mieltä länsimaalainen matkailija on tämäntyylisestä matkailukylästä ja minkälaiselle kohderyhmälle kylän toimintaa on järkevää suunnata. On luonnollista selvittää kylän toimintaa ylläpitävien naisten odotukset ja voimavarat toiminnalle sekä peilata niitä mahdollisen kohderyhmän tarpeisiin ja toiveisiin.Development Cooperation with the Help of Tourism Case: Women's Group Nalare in Kenya This Bachelor's thesis tries to produce ethically and ecologically sustainable development ideas for the tourist village that Nalare women group has generated in northern Kenya’s Satima-Nalare region. The basic reason for the development of the tourism village is the will to do development co-operation that will give the women concrete ways and new ideas on taking their village a step ahead of the rest of the tourism destinations in their area. In this development co-operation the key is to listen to the wishes and needs of the Nalare women and to maintain their environment and cultural heritage. When development co-operation is done through tourism the tourists can help the Nalare women see new potential trends for their tourism product, help in choosing the best target group for their product and help in the final polishing of the product and in the marketing of the complete product. The theoretical section of this thesis consists of defining the concept of development and the meaning of development co-operation. It also introduces the significance of women groups and trusts in development aid and co-operation and explains the choosing this particular research method for this research. The theoretical section is based on books, web-sources and scientific articles that are listed in the list of references, which can be found at the end of this thesis. This thesis also studies the culture of Samburu tribe and their lifestyle, because these form their own significant part of the attraction of the travelling destination. This thesis studies also the negative practices in the traditional samburu culture and their meaning for the tourism in the region. One way that tourism can help with these issues is by raising the awareness of the harmfulness of these traditions among the Samburu people. It is important that the tourists know about the harmful traditions that take place among the Samburus, for example the circumcisions of both male and female children. The two most important findings of this thesis are the positive effects of participatory development co-operation and the empowering of women through the developing of their tourism product. Both of these phenomena have far-reaching effects for the women themselves, their families and in the end the whole community. In the results of this thesis introduces development ideas and the possibilities for further studies about this subject. The most important step is to examine the needs and desires of the Samburu women as closely as possible and with the help of professional interpreter. An interpreter is an important part because the women need to be completely understood. The test group of tourists has given their opinions from the western point of view and some points about the potential target group for this kind of tourism; it is only natural to find out the wishes and resources of the women offering the tourism service. The direction is to start comparing these two aspects and finding the meeting point from which productive tourism village can develop

The Role of the Destination Management Organisation in Responding to Climate Change: Organisational Knowledge and Learning

U ovom radu riječ je o eksplorativnoj empirijskoj analizi koja ispituje mogućnost organizacijske adaptacije određene destinacije na klimatske promjene. Teorijski dio rada proizlazi iz stručne literature vezane uz organizacijsko učenje i adaptabilnost. Istraživanjem slučaja jednog od otoka Velike Britanije rad se posebno fokusira na koji način destinacijska-menadžment organizacija stječe znanja vezana uz klimatske promjene i kako primjenjuje stečena znanja u organizacijskom učenju i adaptabilnosti organizacije. Analiza identificira određeni broj izazova s kojima se suočava destinacijsko menadžment organizacija, posebice vezano uz vođenje i destinacijsku politiku.This research note reports on an exploratory empirical study that examined the extent of organisational adaptation of a destination to climate change. The note takes its theoretical stance from the organisational learning and adaptation literature. Utilising a case study of a UK island destination, the note focuses specifi cally on the way the destination management organisation acquires climate change knowledge and how it translates this knowledge into organisational learning and destination adaptation. The study identifi ed a number of challenges facing the destination management organisation, particularly in relation to leadership and destination governance

Effects of compost, biochar and ash mixed in till soil cover of mine tailings on plant growth and bioaccumulation of elements : A growing test in a greenhouse

Mine closures necessitate vegetation restoration to cover tailings fields and reduce environmental risks. Sole use of forest soil as growth medium provides only low fertility and slow plant growth especially in the harsh boreal climate conditions. This preliminary study examines the feasibility of recyclable waste materials added to forest till soil for improving vegetation success on reclaimed mine tailings. One compost type, three biochar types (Bc1-3) and two ash types (Ash1-2) were studied for physical and chemical properties as well as their effects on the growth and element accumulation of timothy (Phleum pratense L.), white clover (Trifolium repens L.) and Scot spine (Pinus sylvestris L.) during one growing period in a greenhouse. Oxidized surface tailings soil and Ash2 were the finest media components while compost and Ash1 were the coarsest. Tailings soil also had the highest salt contents and electrical conductivity, while in till soil they were at the lowest levels. Timothy and white clover germinated well in moist pure tailings soil but grew poorest in it. White clover grew poorly also in pure till soil. Best biomass growth was in the mixture of till, compost and Bc2 (from sewage sludge and woodchips). Planted pine seedlings grew relatively well in all media during the first growing season but Ash1 (from wood and peat) tended to promote height growth and pure till soil root biomass. In media containing Ash1, pine tissues accumulated B, Ca, Mg, K, Na and S. Elevated As content in tailings soil accumulated in plant shoot tissues slightly; only in the old needles of pine were As levels elevated. The results suggest that till and tailings media with compost added as a nitrogen source can promote adequate plant growth during initial growing seasons. Suitable types of biochar and ash amendments can further expedite plant establishment.Peer reviewe

Comparing supply and demand perspectives of destination competitiveness

The measurement of destination competitiveness usually entails the adoption of either a demand or supply perspective. The former comprises of collecting data from tourists while the latter involves supply-side stakeholders such as business owners and government entities. The overall aim of this paper is to challenge the idea of a choice between the two perspectives and to propose an evaluative framework that combines both: the Supply-Demand Analysis of Competitiveness. Its application is also presented and discussed using the city of Lisbon, Portugal as a case

Tourism as a Vehicle for Sustaining Indigenous Communities: The Australian Government Policy Response

The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which sustainable development principles underpin Australian State and Territory governments’ indigenous tourism policy and planning documents. Although tourism is increasingly being used as an instrument to provide new economic opportunities for Indigenous communities, it is vital that Indigenous tourism development is underpinned by sustainable development principles to ensure that tourism progresses in an appropriate and responsible manner that facilitates sustainable development. The analysis found that the majority of tourism policy documents were not underpinned by broad sustainable development objectives, with limited visions of sustainability that do not address the full gamut of issues affecting Australian indigenous communities and individuals