Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer

[EN] Any change in the components of the water balance in a coastal aquifer, whether natural or anthropogenic, can alter the freshwater-salt water equilibrium. In this sense climate change (CC) and land use and land cover (LULC) change might significantly influence the availability of groundwater resources in the future. These coastal systems demand an integrated analysis of quantity and quality issues to obtain an appropriate assessment of hydrological impacts using density-dependent flow solutions. The aim of this work is to perform an integrated analysis of future potential global change (GC) scenarios and their hydrological impacts in a coastal aquifer, the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. It is a Mediterranean aquifer that extends over 75 km(2) in which important historical LULC changes have been produced and are planned for the future. Future CC scenarios will be defined by using an equi-feasible and non-feasible ensemble of projections based on the results of a multi-criteria analysis of the series generated from several regional climatic models with different downscaling approaches. The hydrological impacts of these CC scenarios combined with future LULC scenarios will be assessed with a chain of models defined by a sequential coupling of rainfall-recharge models, crop irrigation requirements and irrigation return models (for the aquifer and its neighbours that feed it), and a density-dependent aquifer approach. This chain of models, calibrated using the available historical data, allow testing of the conceptual approximation of the aquifer behaviour. They are also fed with series representatives of potential global change scenarios in order to perform a sensitivity analysis regarding future scenarios of rainfall recharge, lateral flows coming from the hydraulically connected neighbouring aquifer, agricultural recharge (taking into account expected future LULC changes) and sea level rise (SLR). The proposed analysis is valuable for improving our knowledge about the aquifer, and so comprises a tool to design sustainable adaptation management strategies taking into account the uncertainty in future GC conditions and their impacts. The results show that GC scenarios produce significant increases in the variability of flow budget components and in the salinity.This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds, the PMAFI/06/14 project with UCAM funds and the Plan de Garantia Juvenil from MINECO, co-financing by BEI and FSE. We would like to thank the Spain02 (AEMET and UC) and CORDEX projects and the Jucar Water Agency (CHJ) for the data provided for this study. We appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions provided by the editor and two anonymous referees.Pulido Velázquez, D.; Renau-Pruñonosa, A.; Llopis Albert, C.; Morell, I.; Collados-Lara, A.; Senent-Aparicio, J.; Leticia Baena-Ruiz (2018). Integrated assessment of future potential global change scenarios and their hydrological impacts in coastal aquifers - a new tool to analyse management alternatives in the Plana Oropesa-Torreblanca aquifer. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. 22(5):3053-3074. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3053-2018S30533074225Alcalá, F. J. and Custodio, E.: Spatial average aquifer recharge through atmospheric ride mass balance and its uncertainty in continental Spain, Hydrol. Process, 28, 218–236, 2014.Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. 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Clinical and genomic analysis of a randomised phase II study evaluating anastrozole and fulvestrant in postmenopausal patients treated for large operable or locally-advanced hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of neoadjuvant anastrozole and fulvestrant treatment of large operable or locally-advanced hormone- receptor-positive breast cancer not eligible for initial breast-conserving surgery, and to identify genomic changes occurring after treatment. Methods: 120 post-menopausal patients were randomised to receive 1 mg anastrozole (61 patients) or 500 mg fulvestrant (59 patients) for 6 months. Genomic DNA copy number profiles were generated for a subgroup of 20 patients before and after treatment. Results: 108 patients were evaluable for efficacy and 118 for toxicity. The objective response rate determined by clinical palpation was 58.9% (95% CI 45.0-71.9) in the anastrozole arm and 53.8% (95% CI 39.5-67.8) in the fulvestrant arm. The breast- conserving surgery rate was 58.9% (95% CI 45.0-71.9) in the anastrozole arm and 50.0% (95% CI 35.8-64.2) in the fulvestrant arm. Pathological responses >50% occurred in 24 patients (42.9%) in the anastrozole arm and 13 (25.0%) in the fulvestrant arm. The Ki-67 score fell after treatment but there was no significant difference between the reduction in the two arms (anastrozole 16.7% [95%CI 13.3-21.0] before, 3.2% [95%CI 1.9-5.5] after, n=43; fulvestrant 17.1% [95%CI 13.1-22.5] before, 3.2% [95%CI 1.8-5.7] after, n=38) or between the reduction in Ki-67 in clinical responders and non- responders. Genomic analysis appeared to show a reduction of clonal diversity following treatment with selection of some clones with simpler copy number profiles. Conclusion: Both anastrozole and fulvestrant were effective and well-tolerated, enabling breast-conserving surgery in over 50% of patients. Clonal changes consistent with clonal selection by the treatment were seen in a subgroup of patients

SARS-CoV-2 viral load in nasopharyngeal swabs is not an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome

The aim was to assess the ability of nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load at first patient’s hospital evaluation to predict unfavorable outcomes. We conducted a prospective cohort study including 321 adult patients with confirmed COVID-19 through RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs. Quantitative Synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA cycle threshold values were used to calculate the viral load in log10 copies/mL. Disease severity at the end of follow up was categorized into mild, moderate, and severe. Primary endpoint was a composite of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death (n = 85, 26.4%). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load over the second quartile (≥ 7.35 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.003) and second tertile (≥ 8.27 log10 copies/mL, p = 0.01) were associated to unfavorable outcome in the unadjusted logistic regression analysis. However, in the final multivariable analysis, viral load was not independently associated with an unfavorable outcome. Five predictors were independently associated with increased odds of ICU admission and/or death: age ≥ 70 years, SpO2, neutrophils > 7.5 × 103/µL, lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 300 U/L, and C-reactive protein ≥ 100 mg/L. In summary, nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 viral load on admission is generally high in patients with COVID-19, regardless of illness severity, but it cannot be used as an independent predictor of unfavorable clinical outcome

Dendritic cell deficiencies persist seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 infection induces an exacerbated inflammation driven by innate immunity components. Dendritic cells (DCs) play a key role in the defense against viral infections, for instance plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs), have the capacity to produce vast amounts of interferon-alpha (IFN-α). In COVID-19 there is a deficit in DC numbers and IFN-α production, which has been associated with disease severity. In this work, we described that in addition to the DC deficiency, several DC activation and homing markers were altered in acute COVID-19 patients, which were associated with multiple inflammatory markers. Remarkably, previously hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients remained with decreased numbers of CD1c+ myeloid DCs and pDCs seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Moreover, the expression of DC markers such as CD86 and CD4 were only restored in previously nonhospitalized patients, while no restoration of integrin β7 and indoleamine 2,3-dyoxigenase (IDO) levels were observed. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the immunological sequelae of COVID-19

Epidemiological trends of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain, 2015-2019

Altres ajuts: Spanish AIDS Research Network; European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER).Objectives: We assessed the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and active HCV infection (HCV-RNA-positive) in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Spain in 2019 and compared the results with those of four similar studies performed during 2015-2018. Methods: The study was performed in 41 centres. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 1%. Patients were selected by random sampling with proportional allocation. Results: The reference population comprised 41 973 PLWH, and the sample size was 1325. HCV serostatus was known in 1316 PLWH (99.3%), of whom 376 (28.6%) were HCV antibody (Ab)-positive (78.7% were prior injection drug users); 29 were HCV-RNA-positive (2.2%). Of the 29 HCV-RNA-positive PLWH, infection was chronic in 24, it was acute/recent in one, and it was of unknown duration in four. Cirrhosis was present in 71 (5.4%) PLWH overall, three (10.3%) HCV-RNA-positive patients and 68 (23.4%) of those who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy (p = 0.04). The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies decreased steadily from 37.7% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2019 (p < 0.001); the prevalence of active HCV infection decreased from 22.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Uptake of anti-HCV treatment increased from 53.9% in 2015 to 95.0% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In Spain, the prevalence of active HCV infection among PLWH at the end of 2019 was 2.2%, i.e. 90.0% lower than in 2015. Increased exposure to DAAs was probably the main reason for this sharp reduction. Despite the high coverage of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents, HCV-related cirrhosis remains significant in this population

The genomic substrate for adaptive radiation in African cichlid fish

Cichlid fishes are famous for large, diverse and replicated adaptive radiations in the Great Lakes of East Africa. To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying cichlid phenotypic diversity, we sequenced the genomes and transcriptomes of five lineages of African cichlids: the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), an ancestral lineage with low diversity; and four members of the East African lineage: Neolamprologus brichardi/pulcher (older radiation, Lake Tanganyika), Metriaclima zebra (recent radiation, Lake Malawi), Pundamilia nyererei (very recent radiation, Lake Victoria), and Astatotilapia burtoni (riverine species around Lake Tanganyika). We found an excess of gene duplications in the East African lineage compared to tilapia and other teleosts, an abundance of non-coding element divergence, accelerated coding sequence evolution, expression divergence associated with transposable element insertions, and regulation by novel microRNAs. In addition, we analysed sequence data from sixty individuals representing six closely related species from Lake Victoria, and show genome-wide diversifying selection on coding and regulatory variants, some of which were recruited from ancient polymorphisms. We conclude that a number of molecular mechanisms shaped East African cichlid genomes, and that amassing of standing variation during periods of relaxed purifying selection may have been important in facilitating subsequent evolutionary diversification