Changes in global ocean bottom properties and volume transports in CMIP5 models under climate change scenarios

Changes in bottom temperature, salinity and density in the global ocean by 2100 for CMIP5 climate models are investigated for the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The mean of 24 models shows a decrease in density in all deep basins except the North Atlantic which becomes denser. The individual model responses to climate change forcing are more complex: regarding temperature, the 24 models predict a warming of the bottom layer of the global ocean; in salinity, there is less agreement regarding the sign of the change, especially in the Southern Ocean. The magnitude and equatorward extent of these changes also vary strongly among models. The changes in properties can be linked with changes in the mean transport of key water masses. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakens in most models and is directly linked to changes in bottom density in the North Atlantic. These changes are due to the intrusion of modified Antarctic Bottom Water, made possible by the decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation. In the Indian, Pacific and South Atlantic, changes in bottom density are congruent with the weakening in Antarctic Bottom Water transport through these basins. We argue that the greater the 1986-2005 meridional transports, the more changes have propagated equatorwards by 2100. However, strong decreases in density over 100 years of climate change cause a weakening of the transports. The speed at which these property changes reach the deep basins is critical for a correct assessment of the heat storage capacity of the oceans as well as for predictions of future sea level rise

Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling

Since 1950, there has been an increase in rainfall over North West Australia (NWA), occurring mainly during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer season. A recent study using 20th century multi-member ensemble simulations in a global climate model forced with and without increasing anthropogenic aerosols suggests that the rainfall increase is attributable to increasing Northern Hemisphere aerosols. The present study investigates the dynamics of the observed trend toward increased rainfall and compares the observed trend with that generated in the model forced with increasing aerosols. We find that the observed positive trend in rainfall is projected onto two modes of variability. The first mode is associated with an anomalously low mean sea level pressure (MSLP) off NWA instigated by the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) gradients towards the coast. The associated cyclonic flows bring high moisture air to northern Australia, leading to an increase in rainfall. The second mode is associated with an anomalously high MSLP over much of the Australian continent; the anticyclonic circulation pattern with northwesterly flows west of 130°E and generally opposite flows in northeastern Australia, determine that when rainfall is anomalously high, west of 130oE, rainfall is anomalously low east of this longitude. The sum of the upward trends in these two modes compares well to the observed increasing trend pattern. The modeled rainfall trend, however, is generated by a different process. The model suffers from an equatorial cold-tongue bias: the tongue of anomalies associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation extends too far west into the eastern Indian Ocean. Consequently, there is an unrealistic relationship in the SH summer between Australian rainfall and eastern Indian Ocean SST: the rise in SST is associated with an increasing rainfall over NWA. In the presence of increasing aerosols, a significant SST increase occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. As a result, the modeled rainfall increase in the presence of aerosol forcing is accounted for by these unrealistic relationships. It is not clear whether, in a model without such defects, the observed trend can be generated by increasing aerosols. Thus, the impact of aerosols on Australian rainfall remains an open question

Multiple causes of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

The eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean is subject to interannual fluctuations of sea surface temperatures, with climatic impacts on the surrounding continents. The dynamic mechanism underlying Atlantic temperature variability is thought to be similar to that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, where air-sea coupling leads to a positive feedback between surface winds in the western basin, sea surface temperature in the eastern basin, and equatorial oceanic heat content. Here we use a suite of observational data, climate reanalysis products, and general circulation model simulations to reassess the factors driving the interannual variability. We show that some of the warm events can not be explained by previously identified equatorial wind stress forcing and ENSO-like dynamics. Instead, these events are driven by a mechanism in which surface wind forcing just north of the equator induces warm ocean temperature anomalies that are subsequently advected toward the equator. We find the surface wind patterns are associated with long-lived subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies and suggest they therefore reflect a link between equatorial and subtropical Atlantic variability

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate.

Mid-Holocene climate was characterized by strong summer solar heating that decreased Arctic sea ice cover. Motivated by recent studies identifying Arctic sea ice loss as a key driver of future climate change, we separate the influences of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-Holocene climate. By performing idealized climate model perturbation experiments, we show that Arctic sea ice loss causes zonally asymmetric surface temperature responses especially in winter: sea ice loss warms North America and the North Pacific, which would otherwise be much colder due to weaker winter insolation. In contrast, over East Asia, sea ice loss slightly decreases the temperature in early winter. These temperature responses are associated with the weakening of mid-high latitude westerlies and polar stratospheric warming. Sea ice loss also weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, although this weakening signal diminishes after 150-200 years of model integration. These results suggest that mid-Holocene climate changes should be interpreted in terms of both Arctic sea ice cover and insolation forcing

Have Australian rainfall and cloudiness increased due to the remote effects of Asian anthropogenic aerosols?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94749/1/jgrd13340.pd

Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004): GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity, maximum winter mixed layer depth, and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere, and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these, the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere, and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude (mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases, which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere, but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: (1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome, (2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors, (3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone, and (4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give a global increase in primary production of 0.7% at the low end to 8.1% at the high end, with very large regional differences. The main cause of both the response to warming and the variation between algorithms is the temperature sensitivity of the primary production algorithms. We also show results for the period between the industrial revolution and 2050 and 2090.J. L. Sarmiento and R. Slater were supported by the NOAA Office of Global Programs grant NA56GP0439 to the Carbon Modeling Consortium for model development and by NSF grant OCE00973166 for model and observational interpretations as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project. R. Barber was supported by NSF grant OCE 0136270 as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project. S. Doney and J. Kleypas wish to thank the Community Climate System Model science team and the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR and acknowledge support from NOAA-OGP grant NOAA-NA96GP0360S. Spall is funded through the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs contract PECD 7/12/37

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. <br><br> Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a <i>z</i>-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. <br><br> Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model

Southern Hemisphere Cloud–Dynamics Biases in CMIP5 Models and Their Implications for Climate Projections

This study quantifies cloud–radiative anomalies associated with interannual variability in the latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet, in 20 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Two distinct model types are found. In the first class of models (type I models), total cloud fraction is reduced at SH midlatitudes as the jet moves poleward, contributing to enhanced shortwave radiative warming. In the second class of models (type II models), this dynamically induced cloud radiative warming effect is largely absent. Type I and type II models have distinct deficiencies in their representation of observed Southern Ocean clouds, but comparison with two independent satellite datasets indicates that the cloud–dynamics behavior of type II models is more realistic. Because the SH midlatitude jet shifts poleward in response to CO₂ forcing, the cloud–dynamics biases uncovered from interannual variability are directly relevant for climate change projections. In CMIP5 model experiments with abruptly quadrupled atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, the global-mean surface temperature initially warms more in type I models, even though their equilibrium climate sensitivity is not significantly larger. In type I models, this larger initial warming is linked to the rapid adjustment of the circulation and clouds to CO₂ forcing in the SH, where a nearly instantaneous poleward shift of the midlatitude jet is accompanied by a reduction in the reflection of solar radiation by clouds. In type II models, the SH jet also shifts rapidly poleward with CO₂ quadrupling, but it is not accompanied by cloud radiative warming anomalies, resulting in a smaller initial global-mean surface temperature warming