Methodological and empirical challenges in modelling residential location choices

The modelling of residential locations is a key element in land use and transport planning. There are significant empirical and methodological challenges inherent in such modelling, however, despite recent advances both in the availability of spatial datasets and in computational and choice modelling techniques. One of the most important of these challenges concerns spatial aggregation. The housing market is characterised by the fact that it offers spatially and functionally heterogeneous products; as a result, if residential alternatives are represented as aggregated spatial units (as in conventional residential location models), the variability of dwelling attributes is lost, which may limit the predictive ability and policy sensitivity of the model. This thesis presents a modelling framework for residential location choice that addresses three key challenges: (i) the development of models at the dwelling-unit level, (ii) the treatment of spatial structure effects in such dwelling-unit level models, and (iii) problems associated with estimation in such modelling frameworks in the absence of disaggregated dwelling unit supply data. The proposed framework is applied to the residential location choice context in London. Another important challenge in the modelling of residential locations is the choice set formation problem. Most models of residential location choices have been developed based on the assumption that households consider all available alternatives when they are making location choices. Due the high search costs associated with the housing market, however, and the limited capacity of households to process information, the validity of this assumption has been an on-going debate among researchers. There have been some attempts in the literature to incorporate the cognitive capacities of households within discrete choice models of residential location: for instance, by modelling households’ choice sets exogenously based on simplifying assumptions regarding their spatial search behaviour (e.g., an anchor-based search strategy) and their characteristics. By undertaking an empirical comparison of alternative models within the context of residential location choice in the Greater London area this thesis investigates the feasibility and practicality of applying deterministic choice set formation approaches to capture the underlying search process of households. The thesis also investigates the uncertainty of choice sets in residential location choice modelling and proposes a simplified probabilistic choice set formation approach to model choice sets and choices simultaneously. The dwelling-level modelling framework proposed in this research is practice-ready and can be used to estimate residential location choice models at the level of dwelling units without requiring independent and disaggregated dwelling supply data. The empirical comparison of alternative exogenous choice set formation approaches provides a guideline for modellers and land use planners to avoid inappropriate choice set formation approaches in practice. Finally, the proposed simplified choice set formation model can be applied to model the behaviour of households in online real estate environments.Open Acces

Market and Funding Liquidity Stress Testing of the Luxembourg Banking Sector

This paper performs market and funding liquidity stress testing of the Luxembourg banking sector using stochastic haircuts and run-off rates. It takes into account not only the shocks to the banking sector and banks? responses to them, but second-round effects due to the effects of banks? reactions on asset prices and reputation. In general, banks? business lines and, therefore their buffers? composition, determine the net effect of the shocks on banks? stochastic liquidity buffers. So, results differ across banks. Second-round effects exemplify the relevance of contagion effects that reduce the systemic benefits of diversification. While systemic liquidity risk is low following a shock to the interbank market, for Luxembourg, with its high number of subsidiaries of large foreign financial institutions, the results indicate the importance of monitoring the liquidity of parent groups to which Luxembourg institutions belong. In particular, shocks to related-party deposits are important. Finally, the results, including those of a run-on-deposits shock, show the relevance of system-wide measures to minimize the systemic effects of liquidity crises.stress test, liquidity risk, banks, stochastic, contagion, macro-prudential

Models for Learning (Mod4L) Final Report: Representing Learning Designs

The Mod4L Models of Practice project is part of the JISC-funded Design for Learning Programme. It ran from 1 May – 31 December 2006. The philosophy underlying the project was that a general split is evident in the e-learning community between development of e-learning tools, services and standards, and research into how teachers can use these most effectively, and is impeding uptake of new tools and methods by teachers. To help overcome this barrier and bridge the gap, a need is felt for practitioner-focused resources which describe a range of learning designs and offer guidance on how these may be chosen and applied, how they can support effective practice in design for learning, and how they can support the development of effective tools, standards and systems with a learning design capability (see, for example, Griffiths and Blat 2005, JISC 2006). Practice models, it was suggested, were such a resource. The aim of the project was to: develop a range of practice models that could be used by practitioners in real life contexts and have a high impact on improving teaching and learning practice. We worked with two definitions of practice models. Practice models are: 1. generic approaches to the structuring and orchestration of learning activities. They express elements of pedagogic principle and allow practitioners to make informed choices (JISC 2006) However, however effective a learning design may be, it can only be shared with others through a representation. The issue of representation of learning designs is, then, central to the concept of sharing and reuse at the heart of JISC’s Design for Learning programme. Thus practice models should be both representations of effective practice, and effective representations of practice. Hence we arrived at the project working definition of practice models as: 2. Common, but decontextualised, learning designs that are represented in a way that is usable by practitioners (teachers, managers, etc).(Mod4L working definition, Falconer & Littlejohn 2006). A learning design is defined as the outcome of the process of designing, planning and orchestrating learning activities as part of a learning session or programme (JISC 2006). Practice models have many potential uses: they describe a range of learning designs that are found to be effective, and offer guidance on their use; they support sharing, reuse and adaptation of learning designs by teachers, and also the development of tools, standards and systems for planning, editing and running the designs. The project took a practitioner-centred approach, working in close collaboration with a focus group of 12 teachers recruited across a range of disciplines and from both FE and HE. Focus group members are listed in Appendix 1. Information was gathered from the focus group through two face to face workshops, and through their contributions to discussions on the project wiki. This was supplemented by an activity at a JISC pedagogy experts meeting in October 2006, and a part workshop at ALT-C in September 2006. The project interim report of August 2006 contained the outcomes of the first workshop (Falconer and Littlejohn, 2006). The current report refines the discussion of issues of representing learning designs for sharing and reuse evidenced in the interim report and highlights problems with the concept of practice models (section 2), characterises the requirements teachers have of effective representations (section 3), evaluates a number of types of representation against these requirements (section 4), explores the more technically focused role of sequencing representations and controlled vocabularies (sections 5 & 6), documents some generic learning designs (section 8.2) and suggests ways forward for bridging the gap between teachers and developers (section 2.6). All quotations are taken from the Mod4L wiki unless otherwise stated

The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models, appropriately identified, are estimated to draw out the differential effect of information on expectations and realisations. Rationality is then tested and we seek to explain deviations of realisations from expectations at a micro-economic level, possibly with reference to macroeconomic shocks. A bivariate regime-switching ordered probit model, distinguishing between states of rationality and irrationality, is then estimated to identify whether individual characteristics affect the probability of an individual using some alternative model to rationality to form their expectations. --household behaviour,expectation formation

The clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour after a negative human immunodeficiency virus test in men who have sex with men: systematic and realist reviews and intervention development

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) experience significant inequalities in health and well-being. They are the group in the UK at the highest risk of acquiring a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Guidance relating to both HIV infection prevention, in general, and individual-level behaviour change interventions, in particular, is very limited. Objectives: To conduct an evidence synthesis of the clinical effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour among MSM after a negative HIV infection test. To identify effective components within interventions in reducing HIV risk-related behaviours and develop a candidate intervention. To host expert events addressing the implementation and optimisation of a candidate intervention. Data sources: All major electronic databases (British Education Index, BioMed Central, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, Educational Resource Index and Abstracts, Health and Medical Complete, MEDLINE, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, PubMed and Social Science Citation Index) were searched between January 2000 and December 2014. Review methods: A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions was conducted. Interventions were examined using the behaviour change technique (BCT) taxonomy, theory coding assessment, mode of delivery and proximity to HIV infection testing. Data were summarised in narrative review and, when appropriate, meta-analysis was carried out. Supplemental analyses for the development of the candidate intervention focused on post hoc realist review method, the assessment of the sequential delivery and content of intervention components, and the social and historical context of primary studies. Expert panels reviewed the candidate intervention for issues of implementation and optimisation. Results: Overall, trials included in this review (n = 10) demonstrated that individual-level behaviour change interventions are effective in reducing key HIV infection risk-related behaviours. However, there was considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the trials. Exploratory meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction in behaviours associated with high risk of HIV transmission (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.91). Additional stratified analyses suggested that effectiveness may be enhanced through face-to-face contact immediately after testing, and that theory-based content and BCTs drawn from ‘goals and planning’ and ‘identity’ groups are important. All evidence collated in the review was synthesised to develop a candidate intervention. Experts highlighted overall acceptability of the intervention and outlined key ways that the candidate intervention could be optimised to enhance UK implementation. Limitations: There was a limited number of primary studies. All were from outside the UK and were subject to considerable clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity. The findings of the meta-analysis must therefore be treated with caution. The lack of detailed intervention manuals limited the assessment of intervention content, delivery and fidelity. Conclusions: Evidence regarding the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions suggests that they are effective in changing behaviour associated with HIV transmission. Exploratory stratified meta-analyses suggested that interventions should be delivered face to face and immediately after testing. There are uncertainties around the generalisability of these findings to the UK setting. However, UK experts found the intervention acceptable and provided ways of optimising the candidate intervention. Future work: There is a need for well-designed, UK-based trials of individual behaviour change interventions that clearly articulate intervention content and demonstrate intervention fidelity

A conceptualisation of management situations relevant for collaborative IS research projects

Collaborative research projects as a means to organise Information Systems research and prototyping activities become increasingly widespread. Their management is challenged by a multiplicity of different partners, activities and results. Required is a project management approach that allows for flexibility within the project life-cycle to address changing needs. We present research in progress aimed at conceptualising the notion of project management relevant situations in this context. This discriminates the conditions and circumstances under which management involvement becomes necessary and thus enables the definition of a suitable management approach. We identify a set of constituent factors to describe different situations based on a literature review and interviews with project managers involved in collaborative research projects. Future research is presented with respect to completing the full analysis cycle of our thematic analysis and the development of a situation-specific project management approach

A Study of the Relationships of Strategic IS Planning (SISP) Approaches, Objectives and Context with SISP Success in UK Organizations

Strategic IS planning (SISP) is an important area for IS research. This study develops the SISP research agenda by examining, in a single study, how the SISP approach used, the SISP objectives of organisations and key dimensions of the SISP context relate together with SISP success. A conceptual model is developed based on SISP theory, strategy process theory and organisational theory. The proposed model was tested with a mail survey of the IT directors (or equivalent) of 70 UK organisations and structural equation modeling was used to analyse the data. Results support an influence on SISP success from both SISP approach and SISP objectives. Within SISP context only the IS maturity of the organisation and the orientation of its business strategy were found to strongly influence SISP success. No support was found for the influence of external environment, organisational structure or IS function structure on SISP success. SISP objectives were also found to influence SISP success indirectly through SISP approach. Similarly IS maturity and strategy orientation influence SISP success indirectly through SISP approach. These findings contribute to SISP theory and potentially provide an improved model for practitioners to pursue higher levels of success from their SISP activities

Logical analysis of data as a tool for the analysis of probabilistic discrete choice behavior

Probabilistic Discrete Choice Models (PDCM) have been extensively used to interpret the behavior of heterogeneous decision makers that face discrete alternatives. The classification approach of Logical Analysis of Data (LAD) uses discrete optimization to generate patterns, which are logic formulas characterizing the different classes. Patterns can be seen as rules explaining the phenomenon under analysis. In this work we discuss how LAD can be used as the first phase of the specification of PDCM. Since in this task the number of patterns generated may be extremely large, and many of them may be nearly equivalent, additional processing is necessary to obtain practically meaningful information. Hence, we propose computationally viable techniques to obtain small sets of patterns that constitute meaningful representations of the phenomenon and allow to discover significant associations between subsets of explanatory variables and the output. We consider the complex socio-economic problem of the analysis of the utilization of the Internet in Italy, using real data gathered by the Italian National Institute of Statistics

Responding—or Not—to IT Project Risks: Conceptualizing Risk Response as Planned Behavior

Prior research suggests that IT project managers’ risk response behavior sometimes differs from the prescriptions in the literature. Conceptualizing performing a risk response as planned behavior, this study draws upon the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and develops a model to enrich the understanding of the relationship between perceiving risk and enacting—or not—a risk response. The model includes the TPB constructs—behavioral attitude, perceived pressure and perceived control. It also leverages the notion of ‘background factors’ in TPB that allows the inclusion of antecedents of behavioral attitude, in the present study, perceived risk of project without the risk response and perceived risk of enacting the risk response. The research design comprises three studies. Study 1 selected three specific risk responses. Study 2 elicited IT project managers’ beliefs about each risk response. Study 3 (in progress), tests the proposed model—enriched with the elicited beliefs—for each risk response

Institutional Pressures and Isomorphism: The Impact on Intelligence-led Policing Adoption

Previous research employing an institutional theoretical framework posits environmental factors play an integral role in the adoption of police practices. The present study applies this framework to examine the adoption of intelligence-led policing (ILP). Data from a purposive sample of national intelligence personnel from 254 agencies are used to employ both a measurement and structural model to explain ILP adoption. Weighted least squares estimation is employed through an asymptotic distribution free function to estimate the measurement and structural equation models. Models exhibit good fit indices, while institutional pressures, among others, had a significant and positive effect on ILP adoption. Findings support the role of institutional pressures in the diffusion of police practice. Implications for future research and policy are discussed