RankPL: A Qualitative Probabilistic Programming Language

In this paper we introduce RankPL, a modeling language that can be thought of as a qualitative variant of a probabilistic programming language with a semantics based on Spohn's ranking theory. Broadly speaking, RankPL can be used to represent and reason about processes that exhibit uncertainty expressible by distinguishing "normal" from" surprising" events. RankPL allows (iterated) revision of rankings over alternative program states and supports various types of reasoning, including abduction and causal inference. We present the language, its denotational semantics, and a number of practical examples. We also discuss an implementation of RankPL that is available for download

Trends in citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature

Background: There are no analyses of citations to books on epidemiological and statistical methods in the biomedical literature. Such analyses may shed light on how concepts and methods changed while biomedical research evolved. Our aim was to analyze the number and time trends of citations received from biomedical articles by books on epidemiological and statistical methods, and related disciplines. Methods and Findings: The data source was the Web of Science. The study books were published between 1957 and 2010. The first year of publication of the citing articles was 1945. We identified 125 books that received at least 25 citations. Books first published in 1980-1989 had the highest total and median number of citations per year. Nine of the 10 most cited texts focused on statistical methods. Hosmer & Lemeshow's Applied logistic regression received the highest number of citations and highest average annual rate. It was followed by books by Fleiss, Armitage, et al., Rothman, et al., and Kalbfleisch and Prentice. Fifth in citations per year was Sackett, et al., Evidence-based medicine. The rise of multivariate methods, clinical epidemiology, or nutritional epidemiology was reflected in the citation trends. Educational textbooks, practice-oriented books, books on epidemiological substantive knowledge, and on theory and health policies were much less cited. None of the 25 top-cited books had the theoretical or sociopolitical scope of works by Cochrane, McKeown, Rose, or Morris. Conclusions: Books were mainly cited to reference methods. Books first published in the 1980s continue to be most influential. Older books on theory and policies were rooted in societal and general medical concerns, while the most modern books are almost purely on methods

Conceptual Design Model of Computerized Personal-Decision AID (ComPDA)

To date, the attentions given to the improvement of decision support at organizational level has been enormous. On the contrary, academic research in improving the performance of computerized decision aid (CDA) for personal decision is lacking, in which some are dated. Nowadays, the existence of CDA which handles personal decision is mushrooming and progressively getting attention from users. Despite that, users’ perceptions of the suitable decision strategy and technique for CDA have not been subjected to systematic investigation. Literature reviews also indicate that most users do not go for complex mathematical techniques despite the fact that these techniques are better at handling the risks and uncertainties in decisions. In fact, more often than not, the development process of CDAs does not seem to adhere to any conceptual and theoretical model. In view of that, this study aims to propose a conceptual design model for computerized personal-decision aid (ComPDA). The following objectives are outlined to support the general aim: (i) to identify appropriate decision strategy and technique for ComPDA, (ii) to incorporate identified strategy and technique in the construction of conceptual design model for ComPDA (iii) to validate the conceptual design model in different situations via prototyping method and (iv) to measure the users’ perceived helpfulness of the ComPDA prototypes. Participatory design method was implemented in order to achieve objective i and ii. The findings were incorporated into the construction of the conceptual design model of ComPDA. In achieving objective iii, the conceptual design model was validated in two different case studies via prototyping: A- choosing development methodology in mobile computing course (md-Matrix); and B- purchasing a mobile phone (ep-Matrix). In achieving objective iv, an instrument (named as Q-HELP) was developed to measure the helpfulness (HLP) of the prototypes. This study identified four relevant constructs pertinent to helpfulness; reliability (REL), decision making effort (EFF), confidence (CON), and decision awareness (AWR). Altogether, 122 respondents participated where 63 were from case study A and 59 from case study B. Eight hypotheses were formulated comprising testing for correlation between all the constructs in Q-HELP with helpfulness, testing the average time spent to make a selection with and without the proposed ComPDA and testing if the mean score of helpfulness of the proposed ComPDA is high. Paired Samples t Test, Pearson Correlation analyses and descriptive analyses were utilized to validate the hypotheses. The results show that: REL and HLP are significantly correlated, EFF and HLP are significantly correlated, CON and HLP are significantly correlated, AWR and HLP are significantly correlated, the use of md-Matrix and ep-Matrix significantly reduces the time spent to make selection, mean score of helpfulness of md-Matrix is fairly high and mean score of helpfulness of ep-Matrix is high. However, it is concluded that the overall results exhibit sufficient indication that md-Matrix and ep-Matrix were found helpful to users in terms of reliability, lessening the decision making effort, increasing confidence and also awareness in decision making. This study has produced the following outcomes, along with achieving all of its objectives: (i) a conceptual design model for ComPDA which incorporates suitable decision strategies and techniques identified via systematic investigations; (ii) two functional ComPDA prototypes to validate the conceptual design model and to demonstrate its applicability in different situations, (iii) an instrument for measuring helpfulness which includes dimensions from outcome and process aspects; and (iv) comparative analyses of decision models, strategies and techniques which provide basis for future studies.

On the KLM properties of a fuzzy DL with Typicality

The paper investigates the properties of a fuzzy logic of typicality. The extension of fuzzy logic with a typicality operator was proposed in recent work to define a fuzzy multipreference semantics for Multilayer Perceptrons, by regarding the deep neural network as a conditional knowledge base. In this paper, we study its properties. First, a monotonic extension of a fuzzy ALC with typicality is considered (called ALC^FT) and a reformulation the KLM properties of a preferential consequence relation for this logic is devised. Most of the properties are satisfied, depending on the reformulation and on the fuzzy combination functions considered. We then strengthen ALC^FT with a closure construction by introducing a notion of faithful model of a weighted knowledge base, which generalizes the notion of coherent model of a conditional knowledge base previously introduced, and we study its properties.Comment: 15 page

The Nineteenth Century Engagement Between Geological and Adventist Thought and its Bearing on the Twentieth Century Flood Geology Movement

The Seventh-day Adventist Church has from the early years of its existence reacted to the perceived challenge of geological thought to their nascent theology. In particular, the Sabbath of the fourth Commandment in Genesis 2 and the catastrophic global Flood described in Genesis 7 and 8 were targeted. The nineteenth century Adventist response has been one of shifting focus, changing strategies, and increasing intensity. Ellen White, the church’s co-founder and prophetess, was one of the first to sound a warning on theological implications of geology. Her perception of geology contained many pre-nineteenth century concepts disconnected from contemporary geological thinking. Long-time editor Uriah Smith used external documents, notably Presbyterian writings to guide the Adventist congregation with ways of responding to geological thought as it impacted on their faith. The first authentic Adventist evaluation of geology and its perceived link with evolution by Alonzo Jones took place in the mid-1880s. With his spirited response, Jones criticised geological stratigraphic concepts in order to neutralise the threat of burgeoning theistic evolutionary thought. His searching in the geological literature involved the use of contextomy. George McCready Price next ventured to nullify the established stratigraphic principles of geology in order to justify a single, global flood-based hypothesis to explain all fossiliferous sedimentary formations. To achieve this, he presented from established scientists selected citations out of their intended context. A special case is presented on Price’s questionable use of the reports of American field geologists McConnell and Willis on thrust faults in the Rocky Mountains. Price modified diagrams and failed to convey unmistakable evidence of a dynamic cause of complex stratigraphy to present his case for the global existence of reverse sequences of rock strata. He argued that since the geologists’ evidence for a fossil sequence of life in the rock stratigraphy is so greatly flawed, there must have been a single catastrophic event that better explained this. Adventist engagement with geological thought during this period saw a noticeable increase in the disregard of intellectual integrity. This study argues that intellectual dishonesty is not a valid way to support a preconceived interpretation of the scriptural narrative. History provides several examples where skewed accounts of events due to questionable intellectual sincerity have eventually been corrected. This research provides access points for interested persons to further investigate the historical aspects of the nineteenth century geology and Adventist thought engagement

The Nineteenth Century Engagement Between Geological and Adventist Thought and its Bearing on the Twentieth Century Flood Geology Movement

The Seventh-day Adventist Church has from the early years of its existence reacted to the perceived challenge of geological thought to their nascent theology. In particular, the Sabbath of the fourth Commandment in Genesis 2 and the catastrophic global Flood described in Genesis 7 and 8 were targeted. The nineteenth century Adventist response has been one of shifting focus, changing strategies, and increasing intensity. Ellen White, the church’s co-founder and prophetess, was one of the first to sound a warning on theological implications of geology. Her perception of geology contained many pre-nineteenth century concepts disconnected from contemporary geological thinking. Long-time editor Uriah Smith used external documents, notably Presbyterian writings to guide the Adventist congregation with ways of responding to geological thought as it impacted on their faith. The first authentic Adventist evaluation of geology and its perceived link with evolution by Alonzo Jones took place in the mid-1880s. With his spirited response, Jones criticised geological stratigraphic concepts in order to neutralise the threat of burgeoning theistic evolutionary thought. His searching in the geological literature involved the use of contextomy. George McCready Price next ventured to nullify the established stratigraphic principles of geology in order to justify a single, global flood-based hypothesis to explain all fossiliferous sedimentary formations. To achieve this, he presented from established scientists selected citations out of their intended context. A special case is presented on Price’s questionable use of the reports of American field geologists McConnell and Willis on thrust faults in the Rocky Mountains. Price modified diagrams and failed to convey unmistakable evidence of a dynamic cause of complex stratigraphy to present his case for the global existence of reverse sequences of rock strata. He argued that since the geologists’ evidence for a fossil sequence of life in the rock stratigraphy is so greatly flawed, there must have been a single catastrophic event that better explained this. Adventist engagement with geological thought during this period saw a noticeable increase in the disregard of intellectual integrity. This study argues that intellectual dishonesty is not a valid way to support a preconceived interpretation of the scriptural narrative. History provides several examples where skewed accounts of events due to questionable intellectual sincerity have eventually been corrected. This research provides access points for interested persons to further investigate the historical aspects of the nineteenth century geology and Adventist thought engagement

Thinking differently about reflective practice in Australian social work education: A rhapsody

There are many different ways of thinking about reflective practice in social work education in Australia. This research utilises a musical metaphor to illustrate this diversity. Written as a piece of music with album notes, the study utilises a reflexive methodology with a qualitative mixed method approach. Three studies were conducted to explore how reflective practice is understood in social work education and practice in Australia. The first study examined my own learning and teaching of reflective practice through an autoethnographic process. The findings indicated a range of models of reflective practice potentially available to the educator. Also explored in this study were the kinds of reflection these models make possible and visible to educators and students. The second study traced the emergence of reflective practice within Australian social work education by conducting a Foucauldian inspired archaeology. This study demonstrated the emergence of specific models in social work education and how their adoption has transformed the language and discourse of problem-solving within the discipline through the use of specific kinds of social theory. In the final study qualitative interviews with social work students, practitioners and educators were undertaken. This study explored the beliefs, attitudes and values held by participants about reflective practice. The final study illustrated the social and oral nature of reflective practice within the discipline. Participant interviews also indicated that reflective practice is a significant means for solving problems and building understanding for learning and practice for social workers. Overall, the study establishes that current models of reflective practice could be enhanced if more attention was paid to instructing students in critical reflection skills such as deconstruction, evaluation, critique, problematisation and interpretation. This would contribute greatly to the ability of social workers to effectively test the limits of their knowledge and practice in the interests of the people they serve

Amalan tanggungjawab sosial korporat : kajian terhadap proses pembuatan keputusan dan akauntabiliti pelaksanaan rancangan 'Bersamamu' oleh Media Prima Berhad

The accountability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) implementation in influencing the targeted community and the decision approach of the meaning of CSR should be seen from the practical and theoretical perspectives. The objectives of this study were to know ways of the decision approach in terms of the meaning of CSR and ways the decision-making processes are being made in program ‘BersamaMu’ at Media Prima Berhad. Specifically, there are three main objectives. Firstly, to determine CSR concept in the context of BersamaMu program. Secondly, to determine the decision making process in BersamaMu program. Thirdly, to investigate stimulating factors of rational decision making process of BersamaMu program. A total of 14 respondents who were involved in the production process of the CSR TV program were interviewed for this study. Through thematic analysis, several basic themes were identified and they were categorized into seven main themes. Firstly, CSR concepts in the context of BersamaMu program are poverty, development and participation to the targeted communities. Secondly, there are three types of decision making process, namely consensus-of-round-table, level of decision stages and perspective of stakeholders. Thirdly, situational context of the targeted community stimulated rational decision making process of BersamaMu program. The findings may offer a new approach in understanding the definition and decision making process of CSR through a set of decision-makers’ input and potential decision behaviors

Justice and the Human Alarm System: The Impact of Exclamation Points and Flashing Lights on the Justice Judgment Process

Extending theory within the justice domain and work on the human alarm system, the current paper argues that the process by which justice judgments are formed may be influenced reliably by the activation of psychological systems that people use to detect and handle alarming situations. Building on this analysis, it is further proposed that if this line of reasoning is true then presenting alarm-related stimuli, such as exclamation points and flashing lights, to people should lead to more extreme judgments about subsequent justice-related events than not presenting these alarming stimuli. Findings collected using different experimental paradigms provide evidence supporting these predictions both inside and outside the psychology lab. Implications for the social psychology of justice and the human alarm system literature are discussed