Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Reliability analysis of stability against piping and sliding in diversion dams, considering four cutoff wall configurations

Abstract The stability against piping and sliding, which is subject to numerous sources of uncertainty, is of great importance in the design of diversion dams. In this study, the performance of four cutoff wall configurations, including a single wall and two walls with half the length of the single wall, was evaluated stochastically using the random finite element method. The Cholesky decomposition technique in conjunction with three types of Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) was employed to generate numerous random fields. The results indicate that the probabilities of failure related to different cutoff wall configurations are similar, considering isotropic hydraulic conductivity. However, there are noticeable differences between the probabilities of failure of these configurations in anisotropic situations. Moreover, the use of a single cutoff wall on the upstream face of an impervious blanket provides the lowest probability of failure for piping. In addition, the exponential ACF ends up with greater exit hydraulic gradients than the second-order Markov and binary noise ACFs. In addition, the sliding stability of the ordinary and earthquake load combinations was examined stochastically using random field theory and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probability of failure appears to increase with an increase in the autocorrelation distance

Probabilistic simulation of advection-reaction-dispersion equation using random lattice Boltzmann method

Abstract Mass transfer is subject to numerous sources of uncertainties due to scarcity of observational data. In this research, a numerical procedure was developed for the probabilistic study of a two-dimensional advection-dispersion problem, while considering chemical reactions. Innovatively, the lattice Boltzmann method was coupled with the concept of random field theory for the probabilistic simulations. The effects of various coefficients of variations (COV) and a number of autocorrelation distances were considered for the stochastic parameters, including dispersion coefficient, pore velocity, and the reaction term. The results indicated that the introduced probabilistic framework can be employed to effectively describe the effects of uncertainties in parameters related to the advection-dispersion equation. Moreover, it was deduced that the mass travel time and the time-concentration curves were influenced significantly by the variations of COV and autocorrelation distance for pore velocity. Interestingly, the mass transfer in the transverse direction increased (through the dispersion phenomenon) with a rise in the values of COV for longitudinal pore velocity. However, different values of COV and autocorrelation distances for the dispersion coefficient and the reaction term caused small alterations in the mass travel time and time-concentration curve

Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries

The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children