Modelo de lógica difusa para pronosticar la inflación en Colombia

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo abordar la discusión del problema inflacionario en Colombia a través de un modelo alternativo que permite realizar estimaciones en condiciones de incertidumbre esto es a través de un modelo de lógica difusa. Para esto se realiza una contextualización de las diferentes teorías que explican el proceso inflacionario y adicionalmente se plantea el por qué se considera la inflación como una variable de incertidumbre para lo cual y de acuerdo a teoría se definen las variables que afectan el ciclo inflacionario en Colombia y se realiza una estimación a través de un modelo de lógica difusa, los resultados muestran que los problemas económicos como lo es el cálculo de la inflación pueden ser tratados a través de este tipo de metodologías

Potenciales flujos de inversión en renta variable en Colombia dada la implementación del esquema multifondos

El presente trabajo analiza el Modelo Multifondos implementado en el sistema privado de pensiones en Colombia y plantea los potenciales flujos de inversión que este puede llegar a tener en el mercado de renta variable. Para realizar este análisis se enuncian todos los aspectos relevantes acerca del modelo Multifondos, para lo cual se describen los aspectos legales, la situación actual del modelo en Colombia además se plantean escenarios probables de acuerdo a la evolución de estos esquemas en Chile y Perú los cuales son estudiados en el desarrollo del trabajo, esto dada la similitud de modelos al implementado en Colombia. De igual manera se analizan las reformas que actualmente adelanta el Gobierno con el objetivo de mejorar el sistema pensional. La investigación es de carácter cuantitativo la cual es fundamentada en fuentes primarias de información como lo son la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, la Superintendencia de Pensiones de Chile y la Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros de Perú, también se tienen presente fuentes secundaras como trabajos de investigación anteriores.This study analyzes the Multi-fund Model implemented for the private pension system in Colombia and proposes the potential investment flows of the model for the market of variable-income rates. For the conduction of this analysis all the relevant features concerning the Multifund model are taken into consideration, describing legal issues, the current situation of the model in Colombia, and proposing probable scenarios in accordance with the evolution of such schemes in Chile and Peru, which are assessed in this work given the similarities of those models with the scheme implemented in Colombia. Similarly, an analysis is made to the Bills currently discussed by the Government intending to improve the pension system. The research is of quantitative nature and supported on primary information sources such as The Finance Superintendence of Colombia, The Pensions Superintendence of Chile and the Bank and Insurance Superintendence of Peru secondary information sources used include previous research works, among others

Impact of Biological Agents on Postsurgical Complications in Inflammatory Bowel Disease : A Multicentre Study of Geteccu

Background: The impact of biologics on the risk of postoperative complications (PC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still an ongoing debate. This lack of evidence is more relevant for ustekinumab and vedolizumab. Aims: To evaluate the impact of biologics on the risk of PC. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in 37 centres. Patients treated with biologics within 12 weeks before surgery were considered "exposed". The impact of the exposure on the risk of 30-day PC and the risk of infections was assessed by logistic regression and propensity score-matched analysis. Results: A total of 1535 surgeries were performed on 1370 patients. Of them, 711 surgeries were conducted in the exposed cohort (584 anti-TNF, 58 vedolizumab and 69 ustekinumab). In the multivariate analysis, male gender (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-2.0), urgent surgery (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.2), laparotomy approach (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-1.9) and severe anaemia (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3-2.6) had higher risk of PC, while academic hospitals had significantly lower risk. Exposure to biologics (either anti-TNF, vedolizumab or ustekinumab) did not increase the risk of PC (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.97-1.58), although it could be a risk factor for postoperative infections (OR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.03-2.27). Conclusions: Preoperative administration of biologics does not seem to be a risk factor for overall PC, although it may be so for postoperative infections

5to. Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad. Memoria académica

El V Congreso Internacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación para la Sociedad, CITIS 2019, realizado del 6 al 8 de febrero de 2019 y organizado por la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, ofreció a la comunidad académica nacional e internacional una plataforma de comunicación unificada, dirigida a cubrir los problemas teóricos y prácticos de mayor impacto en la sociedad moderna desde la ingeniería. En esta edición, dedicada a los 25 años de vida de la UPS, los ejes temáticos estuvieron relacionados con la aplicación de la ciencia, el desarrollo tecnológico y la innovación en cinco pilares fundamentales de nuestra sociedad: la industria, la movilidad, la sostenibilidad ambiental, la información y las telecomunicaciones. El comité científico estuvo conformado formado por 48 investigadores procedentes de diez países: España, Reino Unido, Italia, Bélgica, México, Venezuela, Colombia, Brasil, Estados Unidos y Ecuador. Fueron recibidas un centenar de contribuciones, de las cuales 39 fueron aprobadas en forma de ponencias y 15 en formato poster. Estas contribuciones fueron presentadas de forma oral ante toda la comunidad académica que se dio cita en el Congreso, quienes desde el aula magna, el auditorio y la sala de usos múltiples de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, cumplieron respetuosamente la responsabilidad de representar a toda la sociedad en la revisión, aceptación y validación del conocimiento nuevo que fue presentado en cada exposición por los investigadores. Paralelo a las sesiones técnicas, el Congreso contó con espacios de presentación de posters científicos y cinco workshops en temáticas de vanguardia que cautivaron la atención de nuestros docentes y estudiantes. También en el marco del evento se impartieron un total de ocho conferencias magistrales en temas tan actuales como la gestión del conocimiento en la universidad-ecosistema, los retos y oportunidades de la industria 4.0, los avances de la investigación básica y aplicada en mecatrónica para el estudio de robots de nueva generación, la optimización en ingeniería con técnicas multi-objetivo, el desarrollo de las redes avanzadas en Latinoamérica y los mundos, la contaminación del aire debido al tránsito vehicular, el radón y los riesgos que representa este gas radiactivo para la salud humana, entre otros

Effectiveness of an intervention for improving drug prescription in primary care patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy:Study protocol of a cluster randomized clinical trial (Multi-PAP project)

This study was funded by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias ISCIII (Grant Numbers PI15/00276, PI15/00572, PI15/00996), REDISSEC (Project Numbers RD12/0001/0012, RD16/0001/0005), and the European Regional Development Fund ("A way to build Europe").Background: Multimorbidity is associated with negative effects both on people's health and on healthcare systems. A key problem linked to multimorbidity is polypharmacy, which in turn is associated with increased risk of partly preventable adverse effects, including mortality. The Ariadne principles describe a model of care based on a thorough assessment of diseases, treatments (and potential interactions), clinical status, context and preferences of patients with multimorbidity, with the aim of prioritizing and sharing realistic treatment goals that guide an individualized management. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a complex intervention that implements the Ariadne principles in a population of young-old patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. The intervention seeks to improve the appropriateness of prescribing in primary care (PC), as measured by the medication appropriateness index (MAI) score at 6 and 12months, as compared with usual care. Methods/Design: Design:pragmatic cluster randomized clinical trial. Unit of randomization: family physician (FP). Unit of analysis: patient. Scope: PC health centres in three autonomous communities: Aragon, Madrid, and Andalusia (Spain). Population: patients aged 65-74years with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic diseases) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs prescribed in ≥3months). Sample size: n=400 (200 per study arm). Intervention: complex intervention based on the implementation of the Ariadne principles with two components: (1) FP training and (2) FP-patient interview. Outcomes: MAI score, health services use, quality of life (Euroqol 5D-5L), pharmacotherapy and adherence to treatment (Morisky-Green, Haynes-Sackett), and clinical and socio-demographic variables. Statistical analysis: primary outcome is the difference in MAI score between T0 and T1 and corresponding 95% confidence interval. Adjustment for confounding factors will be performed by multilevel analysis. All analyses will be carried out in accordance with the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: It is essential to provide evidence concerning interventions on PC patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity, conducted in the context of routine clinical practice, and involving young-old patients with significant potential for preventing negative health outcomes. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02866799Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

CIBERER : Spanish national network for research on rare diseases: A highly productive collaborative initiative

Altres ajuts: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII); Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.CIBER (Center for Biomedical Network Research; Centro de Investigación Biomédica En Red) is a public national consortium created in 2006 under the umbrella of the Spanish National Institute of Health Carlos III (ISCIII). This innovative research structure comprises 11 different specific areas dedicated to the main public health priorities in the National Health System. CIBERER, the thematic area of CIBER focused on rare diseases (RDs) currently consists of 75 research groups belonging to universities, research centers, and hospitals of the entire country. CIBERER's mission is to be a center prioritizing and favoring collaboration and cooperation between biomedical and clinical research groups, with special emphasis on the aspects of genetic, molecular, biochemical, and cellular research of RDs. This research is the basis for providing new tools for the diagnosis and therapy of low-prevalence diseases, in line with the International Rare Diseases Research Consortium (IRDiRC) objectives, thus favoring translational research between the scientific environment of the laboratory and the clinical setting of health centers. In this article, we intend to review CIBERER's 15-year journey and summarize the main results obtained in terms of internationalization, scientific production, contributions toward the discovery of new therapies and novel genes associated to diseases, cooperation with patients' associations and many other topics related to RD research

Impact of Biological Agents on Postsurgical Complications in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Multicentre Study of Geteccu

Background: The impact of biologics on the risk of postoperative complications (PC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still an ongoing debate. This lack of evidence is more relevant for ustekinumab and vedolizumab. Aims: To evaluate the impact of biologics on the risk of PC. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in 37 centres. Patients treated with biologics within 12 weeks before surgery were considered “exposed”. The impact of the exposure on the risk of 30-day PC and the risk of infections was assessed by logistic regression and propensity score-matched analysis. Results: A total of 1535 surgeries were performed on 1370 patients. Of them, 711 surgeries were conducted in the exposed cohort (584 anti-TNF, 58 vedolizumab and 69 ustekinumab). In the multivariate analysis, male gender (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2–2.0), urgent surgery (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2–2.2), laparotomy approach (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and severe anaemia (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3–2.6) had higher risk of PC, while academic hospitals had significantly lower risk. Exposure to biologics (either anti-TNF, vedolizumab or ustekinumab) did not increase the risk of PC (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.97–1.58), although it could be a risk factor for postoperative infections (OR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.03–2.27). Conclusions: Preoperative administration of biologics does not seem to be a risk factor for overall PC, although it may be so for postoperative infections