Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects

Knowledge of previous tasks: task similarity influences bias in task duration predictions

Bias in predictions of task duration has been attributed to misremembering previous task duration and using previous task duration as a basis for predictions. This research sought to further examine how previous task information affects prediction bias by manipulating task similarity and assessing the role of previous task duration feedback. Task similarity was examined through participants performing two tasks 1 week apart that were the same or different. Duration feedback was provided to all participants (Experiment 1), its recall was manipulated (Experiment 2), and its provision was manipulated (Experiment 3). In all experiments, task similarity influenced bias on the second task, with predictions being less biased when the first task was the same task. However, duration feedback did not influence bias. The findings highlight the pivotal role of knowledge about previous tasks in task duration prediction and are discussed in relation to the theoretical accounts of task duration prediction bias

Moving onwards: an action continuation strategy in finding the way

peer-reviewedIn four studies, we examined people's strategies when deciding between multiple routes of equivalent length in way-finding tasks. The results reveal the important role of continuing behavior when faced with a choice from multiple viable routes. After affirming the existence of asymmetric preferences for alternatives (Studies 1 and 2), we observed that variations of simple known-environment mazes supported action continuation as prevailing process over alternative strategies such as preference for long initial path segments, paths with a least deviating \ud angle, and a modified hill climbing strategy (Study 3). Moreover, asymmetric preferences disappeared with the absence of initial behavior to inform subsequent decision making (Study 4). Results are discussed within the context of decision making, navigation strategies, and everyday life path finding.ACCEPTEDpeer-reviewe

Structures in gas–liquid churn flow in a large diameter vertical pipe

Gas–Liquid two phase co-current flow in a vertical riser with an internal diameter of 127 mm was investigated in the churn flow pattern. This paper presents detailed experimental data obtained using a Wire Mesh Sensor. It shows that the most obvious features of the flow are huge waves travelling on the liquid film. Wisps, large tendrils of liquid and the product of incomplete atomisation, which had previously detected in smaller diameter pipes, have also been found in the larger diameter pipe employed here. The output of the Wire Mesh Sensor has been used to determine the overall void fraction. When examined within a drift flux framework, it shows a distribution coefficient of ∼1, in contrast to data for lower gas flow rates. Film thickness time series extracted from the Wire Mesh Sensor output have been examined and the trends of mean film thickness, that of the base film and the wave peaks are presented and discussed. The occurrence of wisps and their frequencies have been quantified

When Feedback Interventions Backfire: Why Higher Performance Feedback May Result in Lower Self-Perceived Competence and Satisfaction with Performance

In relative performance evaluation systems, appraisers may choose to adopt stricter or laxer evaluation criteria. When laxer (vs. stricter) criteria are used, higher absolute performance evaluations become easier (vs. harder) to achieve. Thus, each appraisee's absolute performance feedback and the mean of the distribution of absolute performance feedback are shifted upward (vs. downward). Yet, relative performance remains constant. When evaluation outcomes depend solely on relative performance, can the adoption of laxer (vs. stricter) criteria-leading to higher absolute performance feedback but no change in relative performance-influence appraisees' satisfaction with performance? Despite the ubiquity of such systems in organizations, research has not addressed this question. This article points to an important gap between practitioners' beliefs and research findings. We show that while most appraisers believe that higher absolute performance feedback will automatically result in more satisfaction with performance, the opposite may also happen. Specifically, we find that appraisees with a stronger (vs. weaker) chronic or contextual need to engage in social comparison are more satisfied with lower (vs. higher) absolute performance feedback. Overall, we demonstrate why and how feedback interventions in relative performance evaluation systems may backfire, and suggest a set of practical guidelines for maximizing appraisees' satisfaction with performance in such systems

Validity of willingness to pay measures under preference uncertainty

This paper is part of the project ACCEPT, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (grant number 01LA1112A). The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access fund of the Leibniz Association. All data is available on the project homepage (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/forschung/umwelt/projekte/accept) and from Figshare (https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.3113050.v1).Recent studies in the marketing literature developed a new method for eliciting willingness to pay (WTP) with an open-ended elicitation format: the Range-WTP method. In contrast to the traditional approach of eliciting WTP as a single value (Point-WTP), Range-WTP explicitly allows for preference uncertainty in responses. The aim of this paper is to apply Range-WTP to the domain of contingent valuation and to test for its theoretical validity and robustness in comparison to the Point-WTP. Using data from two novel large-scale surveys on the perception of solar radiation management (SRM), a little-known technique for counteracting climate change, we compare the performance of both methods in the field. In addition to the theoretical validity (i.e. the degree to which WTP values are consistent with theoretical expectations), we analyse the test-retest reliability and stability of our results over time. Our evidence suggests that the Range-WTP method clearly outperforms the Point-WTP method.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Decision-makers are resilient in the face of social exclusion

A growing body of evidence suggests that social exclusion impairs people’s capacity for active deliberation and logical reasoning. Building on this finding and on the postulate from the dual-process theory that analytical thinking is essential in order to make good judgments and decisions, we hypothesised that social exclusion will alter judgment and choice behaviour. We tested this hypothesis in three experiments in which social exclusion was manipulated using the Cyberball paradigm, an online ball-tossing game in which participants either received the ball a fair number of times or were excluded by the other two players. We focused on a range of tasks designed to be sensitive to participants’ ability to engage in analytical thinking and careful deliberation, including the Cognitive Reflection Test (Experiment 1) and a set of anchoring, intertemporal preference, disjunction and confidence tasks (Experiments 2 and 3). Our results unanimously failed to support the hypothesis that social exclusion influences people’s judgments and decision-making. We discuss the implications of our findings for social exclusion theory

Software Project Management

With the increasing push by the U.S. government to verify that their subcontractors have achieved certain Capability Maturity Model (CMM) levels, there is an increased need to understand the workings of the CMM. Judy Bamberger states “the CMM is one of the most misunderstood pieces of technical literature in existence. ” [Bemberger] This paper will be an attempt to de-fog the CMM language and help the reader achieve a better understanding of it. After several decades of missed deadlines, overrun budgets and sub-par quality products, software developers realized that mismanagement of the software process was their primary shortfall. This realization started the research initiative that led to the CMM. In late 1986, the Software Engineering Institute (SEI) and Mitre Corporation began development of a process maturity framework that would enable software process improvement by developers. This framework was released by SEI in a September 1987 description document. [Humphrey 1] Since the SEI was a government funded organization, they could not evaluate private organizations. This situation led to the development of the software-process assessment and the software-process evaluation. They also developed a maturity questionnaire to appraise software process maturity. [Humphrey 2] After four years of experience with the process maturity framework, the SEI evolved it into the CMM. This evolution was consummated by the release of version 1.0 of the CMM in 1991