Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI)

Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn). The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision-making

Assessing the association between thinking dispositions and clinical error

Background- Dual-process theory suggests that Type 1 thinking results in a propensity to make ‘intuitive’ decisions based on limited information. Type 2 processes, on the other hand, are able to analyse these initial responses and replace them with rationalised decisions. Individuals may have a preference for different modes of rationalisation, on a continuum from careful to cursory. These ‘dispositions’ of thinking reside in type 2 processes, and may result in error when the preference is for ‘quick and casual’ decision-making. Methods - We asked clinicians to answer a cognitive puzzle to which there was an obvious, but incorrect, answer, to measure their propensity for ‘quick and casual’ decision-making. The same clinicians were also asked to report the number of clinical errors they had committed in the previous two weeks. We hypothesized an association between committing error and settling for an incorrect answer, and that the cognitive puzzle would have predictive capability. Results- Ninety of 153 (59%) clinicians reported that they had committed error, while 103 (67%) gave the incorrect ‘intuitive’ answer to the cognitive puzzle. There was no statistically significant difference between clinicians who committed error and answered incorrectly, and those who did not and answered correctly (χ2 (1, n=1153)=0.021, p=0.885). Conclusions- The prevalence of clinical error in our study was higher than previously reported in the literature, and the propensity for accepting intuitive solutions was high. Although the cognitive puzzle was unable to predict who was more likely to commit error, the study offers insights into developing other predictive models for error

The intersection between Descriptivism and Meliorism in reasoning research: further proposals in support of 'soft normativism'

The rationality paradox centres on the observation that people are highly intelligent, yet show evidence of errors and biases in their thinking when measured against normative standards. Elqayam and Evans (e.g., 2011) reject normative standards in the psychological study of thinking, reasoning and deciding in favour of a ‘value-free’ descriptive approach to studying high-level cognition. In reviewing Elqayam and Evans’ position, we defend an alternative to descriptivism in the form of ‘soft normativism’, which allows for normative evaluations alongside the pursuit of descriptive research goals. We propose that normative theories have considerable value provided that researchers: (1) are alert to the philosophical quagmire of strong relativism; (2) are mindful of the biases that can arise from utilising normative benchmarks; and (3) engage in a focused analysis of the processing approach adopted by individual reasoners. We address the controversial ‘is–ought’ inference in this context and appeal to a ‘bridging solution’ to this contested inference that is based on the concept of ‘informal reflective equilibrium’. Furthermore, we draw on Elqayam and Evans’ recognition of a role for normative benchmarks in research programmes that are devised to enhance reasoning performance and we argue that such Meliorist research programmes have a valuable reciprocal relationship with descriptivist accounts of reasoning. In sum, we believe that descriptions of reasoning processes are fundamentally enriched by evaluations of reasoning quality, and argue that if such standards are discarded altogether then our explanations and descriptions of reasoning processes are severely undermined

Measuring individual differences in decision biases: methodological considerations

BACKGROUND: Individual differences in people’s susceptibility to heuristics and biases (HB) are often measured by multiple- bias questionnaires consisting of one or a few items for each bias. This research approach relies on the assumptions that (1) different versions of a decision bias task measure are interchangeable as they measure the same cognitive failure; and (2) that some combination of these tasks measures the same underlying construct. Based on these assumptions, in Study 1 we developed two versions of a new decision bias survey for which we modified 13 HB tasks to increase their comparability, construct validity, and the participants’ motivation. The analysis of the responses (N = 1279) showed weak internal consistency within the surveys and a great level of discrepancy between the extracted patterns of the underlying factors. To explore these inconsistencies, in Study 2 we used three original examples of HB tasks for each of seven biases. We created three decision bias surveys by allocating one version of each HB task to each survey. The participants’ responses (N = 527) showed a similar pattern as in Study 1, questioning the assumption that the different examples of the HB tasks are interchangeable and that they measure the same underlying construct. These results emphasize the need to understand the domain-specificity of cognitive biases as well as the effect of the wording of the cover story and the response mode on bias susceptibility before employing them in multiple-bias questionnaires

The implementation and execution of an internal control program in a Naval Shipyard.

http://archive.org/details/implementationex00sta

Individual differences in causal learning and decision making

This is an accepted author manuscript of an article subsequently published by Elsevier. The final published version can be found here: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2005.04.003In judgment and decision making tasks, people tend to neglect the overall frequency of base-rates when they estimate the probability of an event; this is known as the base-rate fallacy. In causal learning, despite people s accuracy at judging causal strength according to one or other normative model (i.e., Power PC, DP), they tend to misperceive base-rate information (e.g., the cause density effect). The present study investigates the relationship between causal learning and decision making by asking whether people weight base-rate information in the same way when estimating causal strength and when making judgments or inferences about the likelihood of an event. The results suggest that people differ according to the weight they place on base-rate information, but the way individuals do this is consistent across causal and decision making tasks. We interpret the results as reflecting a tendency to differentially weight base-rate information which generalizes to a variety of tasks. Additionally, this study provides evidence that causal learning and decision making share some component processes

The Role of Knowledge in Early Literacy

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/88052/1/RRQ.36.4.6.pd

Controller HIL testing of real-time distributed frequency control for future power systems

With the evolution of power system components and structures driven mainly by renewable energy technologies, reliability of the network could be compromised with traditional control methodologies. Therefore, it is crucial to thoroughly validate and test future power system control concepts before deployment. In this paper, a Controller Hardware in the Loop (CHIL) simulation for a real-time distributed control algorithm concept developed within the ELECTRA IRP project is performed. CHIL allows exploration of many real-world issues such as noise, randomness of event timings, and hardware design issues that are often not present on a simulation-only system. Octave has been used as the programming language of the controller in order to facilitate the transition between software simulation and real-time control testing. The distributed controller achieved frequency restoration with a collaborative response between different controllers very fast after the unbalanced area is located

The Snow Rake: Developing a Device to Remove Snow from Multiple Story Roofs

Heavy winter snowfall around the country puts the structural integrity of residential homes at risk. While single story homes are easy to clear, it is a daunting task to climb on a roof to remove snow from a multiple-story home. Two snow removal system prototypes were designed, fabricated, and tested which would allow a contracting team to clear snow on a multiple story roof from ground level. One of these prototypes shows great promise and would dramatically increase user safety

Blackstone Canal District Alliance (BCDA) and Fairfax Films: Worcester’s Role in the American Industrial Revolution

The problem this project assesses is the lack of knowledge on Worcester’s rich history among the local community. With the aid of the Blackstone Canal District Alliance and Fairfax Films, the project aims to evoke how the Blackstone Canal helped industrialize Worcester with a focus on the Blackstone Canal District. The goals of the project are met through the production of a promotional documentary film