Long-term slip history discriminates among occurrence models for seismic hazard assessment

We propose a Bayesian framework for the combination of catalogs of large earthquakes and dated cumulative slip data. It provides a quantitative way of discriminating or ranking the different renewal models. Indeed, once the datasets and priors are chosen, no additional expert opinion is required, and the ranking comes out of the Bayes factors directly. This way, the experience of experts is valorized, but the effects of group dynamics do not directly influence the weighing of the different candidate models

Evidence for Holocene palaeoseismicity along the Basel—Reinach active normal fault (Switzerland): a seismic source for the 1356 earthquake in the Upper Rhine graben

We conducted a palaeoseismic study with geomorphologic mapping, geophysical prospecting and trenching along an 8-km-long NNE—SSW trending fault scarp south of Basel. The city as well as 40 castles within a 20-km radius were destroyed or heavily damaged by the earthquake of 1356 October 18 (Io = IX-X), the largest historical seismic event in central Europe. Active river incisions as well as late Quaternary alluvial terraces are uplifted along the linear Basel—Reinach (BR) fault scarp. The active normal fault is comprised of at least two main branches reaching the surface as evident by resistivity profiles, reflection seismic data and direct observations in six trenches. In trenches, the normal fault rupture affects three colluvial wedge deposits up to the base of the modern soil. Radiocarbon as well as thermoluminescence (TL) age determinations from other trenches helped to reconstruct the Holocene event chronology. We identified three seismic events with an average coseismic movement of 0.5—0.8 m and a total vertical displacement of 1.8 m in the last 7800 yr and five events in the last 13 200 yr. The most recent event occurred in the interval ad 500—1450 (2σ) and may correspond to the 1356 earthquake. Furthermore, the morphology suggests both a southern and northern fault extensions that may reach 20 km across the Jura mountains and across the Rhine valley. Taking this fault length and a 10-km-thick seismogenic layer suggests a Mw 6.5 or greater event as a possible scenario for the seismic hazard assessment of the Basel regio

Paleoseismology of the North Anatolian Fault at Güzelköy (Ganos segment, Turkey): Size and recurrence time of earthquake ruptures west of the Sea of Marmara

International audienceThe Ganos fault is the westernmost segment of the North Anatolian Fault that experienced the Mw = 7.4 earthquake of 9 August 1912. The earthquake revealed 45-km-long of surface ruptures inland, trending N70 E, and 5.5 m of maximum right lateral offset near Güzelköy. The long-term deformation of the fault is clearly expressed by several pull-apart basins and sag ponds, pressure and shutter ridges and offset streams. In parallel with detailed geomorphologic investigations, we measured co-seismic and cumulative displacements along the fault, and selected the Güzelköy site for paleoseismology. A microtopographic survey at the site yields 10.5 AE 0.5 m and 35.4 AE 1.5 m cumulative lateral offsets of stream channels and geomorphologic features. Seven paleoseismic parallel and cross-fault trenches document successive faulting events and provide the timing of past earthquakes on the Ganos fault segment. Radiocarbon dating of successive colluvial wedges in trench T1, and the fresh scarplet above (probably 1912 surface rupture) indicate the occurrence of three faulting events since the 14th century. Parallel trenches (3, 5, 6 and 7) expose paleo-channels and show a cumulative right-lateral offset of 16.5 AE 1.5 m next to the fault, and 21.3 AE 1.5 m total channel deflection. Radiocarbon dating of past channel units and fault scarp-related colluvial deposits imply an average 17 +/À 5 mm/year slip rate and 323 AE 142 years recurrence interval of large earthquakes during the last 1000 years on the Ganos fault. The succession of past faulting events and inferred slip rate west of the Marmara Sea provide more constraint on the long-term faulting behavior in the seismic gap of the North Anatolian Fault and may contribute to a better seismic hazard assessment in the Istanbul region

GPR measurements to assess the Emeelt active fault's characteristics in a highly smooth topographic context, Mongolia

International audienceTo estimate the seismic hazard, the geometry (dip, length and orientation) and the dynamics (type of displacements and amplitude) of the faults in the area of interest need to be understood. In this paper, in addition to geomorphologic observations, we present the results of two ground penetrating radar (GPR) campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011 along the Emeelt fault in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, located in an intracontinental region with low deformation rate that induces long recurrence time between large earthquakes. As the geomorphology induced by the fault activity has been highly smoothed by erosion processes since the last event, the fault location and geometry is difficult to determine precisely. However, by using GPR first, a non-destructive and fast investigation, the fault and the sedimentary deposits near the surface can be characterized and the results can be used for the choice of trench location. GPR was performed with a 50 MHz antenna over 2-D lines and with a 500 MHz antenna for pseudo-3-D surveys. The 500 MHz GPR profiles show a good consistency with the trench observations, dug next to the pseudo-3-D surveys. The 3-D 500 MHz GPR imaging of a palaeochannel crossed by the fault allowed us to estimate its lateral displacement to be about 2 m. This is consistent with a right lateral strike-slip displacement induced by an earthquake around magnitude 7 or several around magnitude 6. The 2-D 50 MHz profiles, recorded perpendicular to the fault, show a strong reflection dipping to the NE, which corresponds to the fault plane. Those profiles provided complementary information on the fault such as its location at shallow depth, its dip angle (from 23 • to 35 •) and define its lateral extension. Central Asia is known for its high level of seismic hazards, especially Mongolia, which has been one of the most seismically active intracontinental regions in the world with four large earthquakes (magnitude around 8) along its active faults in the western part of the country during the last century (Khilko et al. 1985). The deformation in Mongolia is located between compressive structures related to the collision and penetration of the Indian plate into the Eurasian plate and extensive structures in the north of the country related with the Baykal rift (Tapponnier & Molnar 1979; Baljinnyam et al. 1993; Schlupp 1996; Bayasgalan & Jackson 1999). The seismic activity observed in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar (UB), capital of Mongolia, is relatively low compared to the activity observed in western Mongolia. Nevertheless, since 2005, the seismic activity around UB not only has increased, but is also organized (see Fig. 1) at the west of UB along two perpendicular directions, which determine two active faults: Emeelt fault, discovered in 2008 (NNW-SSE direction, 25-km-long minimum and situated about 10 km W of UB) and Hustai fault (WSW–ENE direction, 80 km long, with its NE tip at less than 20 km west of UB); their length and morphology indicate that they can produce earthquakes of magnitude 6.5–7.5 (Schlupp et al. 2012). Most of the Mongolian population (1.2 million over 3 million) is concentrated at UB, which is the main political and economical centre of the country. Hence, the study of seismic hazard and the estimation of the probability of future destructive earthquakes are of primary importance for the country (Dugarmaa et al. 2006). Since the last large earthquake, the faults geomorphology has been highly smoothed by erosional processes and the exact location of the fault plane surface rupture is thus hidden within a several metre wide strip. The GPR method has been proven to give good and useful results to characterize faults by identifying offsets of radar reflections (Malik et al. 2007; Christie et al. 2009; Yalçiner et al. 2013) an

Hardware And Software For Reproducible Research In Audio Array Signal Processing

In our demo, we present two hardware platforms for prototyping audio array signal processing. Pyramic is a 48-channel microphone array fitted on an FPGA and Compact Six is a portable microphone array with six microphones, closer to the technical constraints of consumer electronics. A browser based interface was developed that allows the user to interact with the audio stream from the arrays in real time. The software component of this demo is a Python module with implementations of basic audio signal processing blocks and popular techniques like STFT, beamforming, and DoA. Both the hardware design files and the software are open source and freely shared. As part of a collaboration with IBM Research, their beamforming and imaging technologies will also be portrayed. The hardware will be demonstrated through an installation processing the microphone signals into light patterns on a circular LED array. The demo will be interactive and let visitors play with different algorithms for DoA (SRP, FRIDA [1], Bluebild) and beamforming (MVDR, Flexibeam [2]). The availability of an open platform with reference implementations encourages reproducible research and minimizes setup-time when testing and benchmarking new audio array signal processing algorithms. It can also serve as a useful educational tool, providing a means to work with real-life signals

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Erratum to: Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project

In the original publication of the article, Fig. 11 was published incorrectly. The correct version of Fig. 11 is provided her

Rapid response to the M_w 4.9 earthquake of November 11, 2019 in Le Teil, Lower Rhône Valley, France

On November 11, 2019, a Mw 4.9 earthquake hit the region close to Montelimar (lower Rhône Valley, France), on the eastern margin of the Massif Central close to the external part of the Alps. Occuring in a moderate seismicity area, this earthquake is remarkable for its very shallow focal depth (between 1 and 3 km), its magnitude, and the moderate to large damages it produced in several villages. InSAR interferograms indicated a shallow rupture about 4 km long reaching the surface and the reactivation of the ancient NE-SW La Rouviere normal fault in reverse faulting in agreement with the present-day E-W compressional tectonics. The peculiarity of this earthquake together with a poor coverage of the epicentral region by permanent seismological and geodetic stations triggered the mobilisation of the French post-seismic unit and the broad French scientific community from various institutions, with the deployment of geophysical instruments (seismological and geodesic stations), geological field surveys, and field evaluation of the intensity of the earthquake. Within 7 days after the mainshock, 47 seismological stations were deployed in the epicentral area to improve the Le Teil aftershocks locations relative to the French permanent seismological network (RESIF), monitor the temporal and spatial evolution of microearthquakes close to the fault plane and temporal evolution of the seismic response of 3 damaged historical buildings, and to study suspected site effects and their influence in the distribution of seismic damage. This seismological dataset, completed by data owned by different institutions, was integrated in a homogeneous archive and distributed through FDSN web services by the RESIF data center. This dataset, together with observations of surface rupture evidences, geologic, geodetic and satellite data, will help to unravel the causes and rupture mechanism of this earthquake, and contribute to account in seismic hazard assessment for earthquakes along the major regional Cévenne fault system in a context of present-day compressional tectonics