Does the World Bank have a micro-macro paradox or do the data deceive?

In 1986, Mosely first drew attention to an apparent paradox in the performance of international aid. Microeconomic data from evaluations of aid financed projects showed a majority of projects were successful, whereas macroeconomic data from regressions of aid on growth were discouraging. The paradox, if real, implied that the aggregate impact of aid was less the sum of its parts. Mosely asked whether the paradox was real of whether the “data deceived.” This question, which has come to be equated with the issue of whether aid works, has been the subject of numerous cross-country regressions to test whether aid has an impact on growth (or related variables). But the regression results have been inconclusive, and the methodology has come under attack. Evidence from case studies offers an alternative test. One prominent case study approach is that of Picciotto (2009), which claims to find strong evidence for the existence of the paradox, namely the fact that one third of World Bank country assistance program evaluations show success at the project (micro) level but not at the country (macro) level. This paper re-evaluates Piciotto’s claimed findings.aid, aid effectiveness, world bank

Zebra Finch Song Phonology and Syntactical Structure across Populations and Continents-A Computational Comparison

StH was supported by an LIBC grant to Clara C. Levelt and CtC

What do patients need to know? A study to assess patients’ satisfaction with information about medicines

Objectives: This study aimed to determine the information needs and reported adherence of patients prescribed medicines for chronic conditions in those who have received a community pharmacy advanced service and those who have not. Methods: A questionnaire was constructed using validated tools to measure medication information satisfaction and adherence together with questions eliciting information regarding the use of pharmacy services and demographic characteristics. This questionaire was distributed from four community pharmacies to a convenience sample of 400 patients as they collected their medicines. Patients were eligible if prescribed more than one regular medicine and attending the pharmacy for longer than three months. The questionnaire was returned directly to the university. Key Findings: 232 (58%) questionnaires were returned. All respondents desired further information about their prescribed medicines, particularly about potential medication problems. Dissatisfaction centred on side effects, interactions and certain medicine characteristics such as how long it will take to act. Satisfaction with information about medicines and adherence were significantly greater in a subgroup reporting that they had received an advanced pharmacy service e.g. medicine use review. Conclusion: Patients who had received an advanced service reported greater adherence and satisfaction with medicine related information. This was a small, observational study, using a convenience sample of four pharmacies; in order to draw definitive conclusions, a larger study with participants randomised to receive an advanced service is required

The national portfolio for postgraduate family medicine training in South Africa : a descriptive study of acceptability, educational impact, and usefulness for assessment

Background: Since 2007 a portfolio of learning has become a requirement for assessment of postgraduate family medicine training by the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa. A uniform portfolio of learning has been developed and content validity established among the eight postgraduate programmes. The aim of this study was to investigate the portfolio's acceptability, educational impact, and perceived usefulness for assessment of competence. Methods: Two structured questionnaires of 35 closed and open-ended questions were delivered to 53 family physician supervisors and 48 registrars who had used the portfolio. Categorical and nominal/ordinal data were analysed using simple descriptive statistics. The open-ended questions were analysed with ATLAS.ti software. Results: Half of registrars did not find the portfolio clear, practical or feasible. Workshops on portfolio use, learning, and supervision were supported, and brief dedicated time daily for reflection and writing. Most supervisors felt the portfolio reflected an accurate picture of learning, but just over half of registrars agreed. While the portfolio helped with reflection on learning, participants were less convinced about how it helped them plan further learning. Supervisors graded most rotations, suggesting understanding the summative aspect, while only 61% of registrars reflected on rotations, suggesting the formative aspects are not yet optimally utilised. Poor feedback, the need for protected academic time, and pressure of service delivery impacting negatively on learning. Conclusion: This first introduction of a national portfolio for postgraduate training in family medicine in South Africa faces challenges similar to those in other countries. Acceptability of the portfolio relates to a clear purpose and guide, flexible format with tools available in the workplace, and appreciating the changing educational environment from university-based to national assessments. The role of the supervisor in direct observations of the registrar and dedicated educational meetings, giving feedback and support, cannot be overemphasized

Molecular imaging of inflammation and intraplaque vasa vasorum: A step forward to identification of vulnerable plaques?

Current developments in cardiovascular biology and imaging enable the noninvasive molecular evaluation of atherosclerotic vascular disease. Intraplaque neovascularization sprouting from the adventitial vasa vasorum has been identified as an independent predictor of intraplaque hemorrhage and plaque rupture. These intraplaque vasa vasorum result from angiogenesis, most likely under influence of hypoxic and inflammatory stimuli. Several molecular imaging techniques are currently available. Most experience has been obtained with molecular imaging using positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography. Recently, the development of targeted contrast agents has allowed molecular imaging with magnetic resonance imaging, ultrasound and computed tomography. The present review discusses the use of these molecular imaging techniques to identify inflammation and intraplaque vasa vasorum to identify vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques at risk of rupture and thrombosis. The available literature on molecular imaging techniques and molecular targets associated with inflammation and angiogenesis is discussed, and the clinical applications of molecular cardiovascular imaging and the use of molecular techniques for local drug delivery are addressed

Fluorides for the prevention of early tooth decay (demineralised white lesions) during fixed brace treatment

Demineralised white lesions (DWLs) can appear on teeth during fixed brace treatment because of early decay around the brackets that attach the braces to the teeth. Fluoride is effective in reducing decay in susceptible individuals in the general population. Individuals receiving orthodontic treatment may be prescribed various forms of fluoride treatment. This review compares the effects of various forms of fluoride used during orthodontic treatment on the development of DWLs. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2004

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)