Changes in life expectancy 1950–2010: contributions from age- and disease-specific mortality in selected countries

BACKGROUND: Changes of life expectancy over time serve as an interesting public health indicator for medical, social and economic developments within populations. The aim of this study was to quantify changes of life expectancy between 1950 and 2010 and relate these to main causes of death. METHODS: Pollard’s actuarial method of decomposing life expectancy was applied to compare the contributions of different age- and disease-groups on life expectancy in 5-year intervals. RESULTS: From the 1960 to 70s on, declines in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality play an increasing role in improving life expectancy in many developed countries. During the past decades gains in life expectancy in these countries were mainly observed in age groups ≥65 years. A further consistent pattern was that life expectancy increases were stronger in men than in women, although life expectancy is still higher in women. In Japan, an accelerated epidemiologic transition in causes of death was found, with the highest increases between 1950 and 1955. Short-term declines and subsequent gains in life expectancy were observed in Eastern Europe and the former states of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), reflecting the changes of the political system. CONCLUSIONS: Changes of life years estimated with the decomposing method can be directly interpreted and may therefore be useful in public health communication. The development within specific countries is highly sensitive to changes in the political, social and public health environment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0089-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Particulate matter air pollution components and incidence of cancers of the stomach and the upper aerodigestive tract in the European Study of Cohorts of Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)

© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.Introduction: Previous analysis from the large European multicentre ESCAPE study showed an association of ambient particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) air pollution exposure at residence with the incidence of gastric cancer. It is unclear which components of PM are most relevant for gastric and also upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer and some of them may not be strongly correlated with PM mass. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to elemental components of PM2.5 and PM10 and gastric and UADT cancer incidence in European adults. Methods: Baseline addresses of individuals were geocoded and exposure was assessed by land-use regression models for copper (Cu), iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) representing non-tailpipe traffic emissions; sulphur (S) indicating long-range transport; nickel (Ni) and vanadium (V) for mixed oil-burning and industry; silicon (Si) for crustal material and potassium (K) for biomass burning. Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders were used for cohort-specific analyses. Combined estimates were determined with random effects meta-analyses. Results: Ten cohorts in six countries contributed data on 227,044 individuals with an average follow-up of 14.9 years with 633 incident cases of gastric cancer and 763 of UADT cancer. The combined hazard ratio (HR) for an increase of 200 ng/m3 of PM2.5_S was 1.92 (95%-confidence interval (95%-CI) 1.13;3.27) for gastric cancer, with no indication of heterogeneity between cohorts (I2 = 0%), and 1.63 (95%-CI 0.88;3.01) for PM2.5_Zn (I2 = 70%). For the other elements in PM2.5 and all elements in PM10 including PM10_S, non-significant HRs between 0.78 and 1.21 with mostly wide CIs were seen. No association was found between any of the elements and UADT cancer. The HR for PM2.5_S and gastric cancer was robust to adjustment for additional factors, including diet, and restriction to study participants with stable addresses over follow-up resulted in slightly higher effect estimates with a decrease in precision. In a two-pollutant model, the effect estimate for total PM2.5 decreased whereas that for PM2.5_S was robust. Conclusion: This large multicentre cohort study shows a robust association between gastric cancer and long-term exposure to PM2.5_S but not PM10_S, suggesting that S in PM2.5 or correlated air pollutants may contribute to the risk of gastric cancer.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Overweight/Obesity and Respiratory and Allergic Disease in Children: International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Two

BackgroundChildhood obesity and asthma are increasing worldwide. A possible link between the two conditions has been postulated.MethodsCross-sectional studies of stratified random samples of 8–12-year-old children (n = 10 652) (16 centres in affluent and 8 centres in non-affluent countries) used the standardized methodology of ISAAC Phase Two. Respiratory and allergic symptoms were ascertained by parental questionnaires. Tests for allergic disease were performed. Height and weight were measured, and overweight and obesity were defined according to international definitions. Prevalence rates and prevalence odds ratios were calculated.ResultsOverweight (odds ratio = 1.14, 95%-confidence interval: 0.98; 1.33) and obesity (odds ratio = 1.67, 95%-confidence interval: 1.25; 2.21) were related to wheeze. The relationship was stronger in affluent than in non-affluent centres. Similar results were found for cough and phlegm, rhinitis and eczema but the associations were mostly driven by children with wheeze. There was a clear association of overweight and obesity with airways obstruction (change in FEV1/FVC, −0.90, 95%-confidence interval: −1.33%; −0.47%, for overweight and −2.46%, 95%-confidence interval: −3.84%; −1.07%, for obesity) whereas the results for the other objective markers, including atopy, were null.ConclusionsOur data from a large international child population confirm that there is a strong relation of body mass index with wheeze especially in affluent countries. Moreover, body mass index is associated with an objective marker of airways obstruction (FEV1/FVC) but no other objective markers of respiratory and allergic disorders

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations

Long-term exposure to elemental constituents of particulate matter and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cohorts: Results from the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects

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Prevalence and Prognostic Value of Psychological Stress Events in Patients with First Myocardial Infarction—Long-Term Follow-Up Study

While there is good evidence that symptoms of depression determine prognosis of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), the role of psychological stress is less clear. We evaluated the prognostic value of stressful events in patients with initial myocardial infarction (MI) with respect to subsequent cardiovascular events. The KAROLA-study included patients with CHD who participated in an in-patient rehabilitation program. A total of 577 patients with initial MI were included and self-reported psychological stressful events before their MI was assessed by a structured questionnaire. Hazard ratios were used to evaluate the long-term association of stressful events with secondary cardiovascular events. Additionally, associations of stressful events with depression, anxiety and other cardiovascular risk factors were investigated. Unusual stress at work (26.5%) and sleep disorder (23.4%) were the most frequently reported stressful events that occurred in the last 4 weeks before MI. However, only death of a family member showed a statistically significant increase in risk for subsequent cardiovascular events (HR: 1.59; 95%-CI: 1.01–2.50) and this result was not corrected for multiple testing. Notably, we found higher symptom scores of anxiety and depression associated with all single stressful event items. In conclusion, we found no clear patterns that psychological stressful events before MI would increase the long-term risk of subsequent adverse CHD events directly. However, we saw increased symptom scores of anxiety and depression in persons with stressful events

Risk for femoral fractures in Parkinson's disease patients with and without severe functional impairment.

BACKGROUND:Impaired balance is a major problem in patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) resulting in an increased risk of falls and fall-related fractures. Most studies which analyzed the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD were performed either in specialized centers or excluded very frail patients. The current study used a large population-based dataset in order to analyze the risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. METHODS:Data from more than 880.000 individuals aged 65 years or older and insured between 2004 and 2009 at a large German health insurance company were used for the analyses. Persons with idiopathic PD were identified by the dispensing of Parkinson-specific medication and by hospital diagnoses, if available. People without PD served as the reference group. Incident femoral fractures were obtained from hospital diagnoses. Analyses were stratified by gender and information on severe functional impairment (care need) as provided by reimbursement claims. RESULTS:Compared with the reference group, persons with idiopathic PD had a more than doubled risk to sustain a femoral fracture. The risk was higher in men (HR = 2.61; 95%-CI: 2.28-2.98) than in women (HR = 1.79; 95%-CI: 1.66-1.94). The increased risk was only observed in people without severe functional impairment. The sensitivity analysis using a refined definition of idiopathic PD patients yielded similar results. CONCLUSION:The findings confirm the increased risk of femoral fractures in patients with idiopathic PD. The relative risk is particularly high in male PD patients and in patients without severe functional impairment

Prognostic value of long-term trajectories of depression for incident diabetes mellitus in patients with stable coronary heart disease

Background Diabetes mellitus (DM) and depression are bidirectionally interrelated. We recently identified long-term trajectories of depression symptom severity in individuals with coronary heart disease (CHD), which were associated with the risk for subsequent cardiovascular events (CVE). We now investigated the prognostic value of these trajectories of symptoms of depression with the risk of incident DM in patients with stable coronary heart disease. Methods The KAROLA cohort included CHD patients participating in an in-patient rehabilitation program (years 1999/2000) and followed for up to 15 years. We included 1048 patients (mean age 59.4 years, 15% female) with information on prevalent DM at baseline and follow-up data. Cox proportional hazards models were used to model the risk for incident DM during follow-up by depression trajectory class adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, body mass index, and physical activity. In addition, we modeled the excess risk for subsequent CVE due to incident DM during follow-up for each of the depression trajectories. Results DM was prevalent in 20.7% of patients at baseline. Over follow-up, 296 (28.2%) of patients had a subsequent CVE. During follow-up, 157 (15.0%) patients developed incident DM before experiencing a subsequent CVE. Patients following a high-stable depression symptom trajectory were at substantially higher risk of developing incident DM than patients following a low-stable depression symptom trajectory (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.35, 4.65)). A moderate-stable and an increasing depression trajectory were associated with HRs of 1.48 (95%-CI (1.10, 1.98)) and 1.77 (95%-CI (1.00, 3.15)) for incident DM. In addition, patients in the high-stable depression trajectory class who developed incident DM during follow-up were at 6.5-fold risk (HR = 6.51; 95%-CI (2.77, 15.3)) of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event. Conclusions In patients with CHD, following a trajectory of high stable symptoms of depression was associated with an increased risk of incident DM. Furthermore, incident DM in these patients was associated with a substantially increased risk of subsequent CVE. Identifying depressive symptoms and pertinent treatment offers might be an important and promising approach to enhance outcomes in patients with CHD, which should be followed up in further research and practice