Identifying productive zones of the Sarvak formation by integrating outputs of different classification methods

International audienceSarvak formation is the second major carbonate reservoir in Iran. There are several geological, petrophysical and geophysical investigations which have been carried out on this important reservoir. In this work, Sarvak is studied to find productive zones. At first, four different methods were used to identify producing intervals from well log data and well test results. Then, final zoning is generated by integrating outputs of these four methods. One of them is the conventional cutoff based method; the other three methods are based on flow equation, Bayesian and fuzzy theories. Thereafter, by considering the classification correctness rate of each classifier in each well and technique of majority voting, a unique zoning for Sarvak formation is presented. Based on the final zoning, the whole Sarvak interval is divided into seven zones. Three of them are classified as oil producing zones, two of them cannot be classified as conventionally producing zones, and the remaining two are water producing. Zone number 2 not only has the highest production rate, but also is the most homogeneous zone among the productive zones. The novelty of this research is using well test results in defining productive classes, which improves the certainty of classification in comparison with previous works that were based on core analysis and log data

Comparative study of the role of municipalities in providing health care services

Introduction: One of the most important functions of municipalities as a public institution is to provide, maintain and promote the health of citizens. To improve the health of the community, we need to understand the function of the municipality in countries that affect the health and well-being of the population. Material and methods: This study is a comparative-descriptive study. After searching for databases and authoritative sources and documents, related research was introduced into the study. Considering the performance of municipalities in the provision of health services, 7 countries were selected as statistical samples. Finally, the comparative attitudes of selected countries based on the role of municipalities in providing health services, macroeconomic indicators and health economics were tabulated, compared and compared. Results: The municipalities of the selected countries in the provision of health services have been made in the form of four process factors, context, content and stakeholders, among which the health system infrastructure, government form, the degree of rehabilitation and the council system are considered as effective factors in the provision of health services. Conclusion: Development of cities and disproportionate facilities with the population, providing appropriate health services to the people is not possible except with the participation of all sectors, especially urban management. An overview of the experiences of the studied countries shows that the municipalities also play a key role in the development of the city as well as in the area of health

Factors associated with control of type 2 diabetes mellitus in North Iran

Backround. Diabetes is an important public health problem, one of four priority noncommunicable diseases targeted for action by world leaders. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting diabetes control in patients with type 2 diabetes in the rural areas of northern Iran. Methods. This study was conducted following a descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study design based on the data of 308 patients with type 2 diabetes in the rural areas of Golestan province. The samples were selected through two-stage stratified random sampling. Data were collected using a questionnaire (completed by the interviewer) and by measuring the blood glucose, blood pressure, and lipid profile of patients and also using data from patients’ records. Data were analyzed using descriptive and analytical statistics and SPSS version 19. Results. The mean age of patients was 57 ± 15 years and 220 patients (71%) were female. Fifty-five percent of patients had a family history of diabetes and 69% had comorbidity. The mean vegetable intake in patients was 3 days a week with 1.5 servings per day and only 20% had exercise at least three times a week. The proportion of patients with adequately controlled glycated hemoglobin (HBA1c), blood pressure (BP), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were 27, 91, 31, 41 and 55.5%, respectively. There was also a significant relationship between the controlled blood glucose with increasing age, absence of comorbidity, the number of nutrition counseling, and lowering blood triglycerides. Conclusion. The results of this study showed poor blood glucose control in the studied geography. Therefore, considering these data, it seems necessary to review the national plan for the prevention and control of diabetes

Synthesis of nanoparticles embedded in polymer: nanostructure of magnetic polyaniline/strontium trioxide-titanium for removing polyphenols from dairy wastewater

Dairy wastewater is one of the most pollutant resulting from food industry, which is mainly composed of complex substances such as organic compounds, mineral compounds, chlorides, sulfides, fats and oils. The presence of high organic loading in dairy wastewater causes negative effects on the environment. In this research, magnetic polyaniline with strontium-titanium trioxide was applied as an environmentally friendly, low-cost and efficient Nano adsorbent to reduce polyphenols from dairy wastewater. The synthesized nanocomposite shows a high absorption capacity compared to polyphenols. This feature can be attributed to van der Waals interaction (π-π and electrostatic interactions), n-π interaction, and hydrogen bonding of the adsorbent with the analyte. Polyaniline causes hydrogen and π-π interaction with polyphenols due to the presence of functional groups containing nitrogen and backbone of π-conjugated electrons. Also, the existence of metal orbitals in SrTiO3 enables the formation of Lewis acid base with polyphenols. SrTiO3 nanoparticles give outstanding physical properties, high thermal and chemical stability, acceptable specific surface area to the nanocomposite, which causes a synergistic effect with the unique properties of polyaniline. Finally, due to the presence of magnetic nanoparticles and with the help of an external magnet, time is saved in the separation step. Also, in this article, factors affecting the absorption of polyphenols such as solution pH, adsorbent amount, contact time, concentration and temperature were investigated. The results showed that MPANI@SrTiO3 shows high efficiency by removing 89.41% of polyphenols (under optimal conditions, pH 5, adsorbent amount 20 mg, time 150 minutes at room temperature and salt percentage 0.01(w/v% ). Validity of the proposed method was checked using adsorption isotherm and kinetic models. According to the data, the adsorption kinetics of polyphenols on the MPANI@SrTiO3 adsorbent corresponded to the semi-first-order, and the experimental equilibrium of the Langmuir model was matched with the maximum adsorption capacity of the single layer of 67.11 mg/g. Also, the thermodynamic parameters ΔG° (kJ/mol), ΔH° (kJ/mol) and ΔS° (kJ/mol K) were obtained as -19.8, -60.61 and -0.17, respectively, as a result of the nature of adsorption It corresponds to the exothermic mechanism and physical absorption

Thermoresistant Newcastle disease vaccine effectivelyprotects SPF, native, and commercial chickens inchallenge with virulent virus

Background: Due to the more stability and a better homogenecity in immune response, the use of thermoresistant vaccines in different chicken types has been increased. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of a newly developed Newcastle disease vaccine (ND.TR.IR ) originating from 1-2 strain in specific pathogen-free (SPF) and native and broiler chickens. Methods: Following determination of pathogenicity indices on the candidate seed, three efficacy examinations were conducted. In the first experiment, 120 1-day-old SPF chickens were randomly allocated to six groups and either vaccinated with ND.TR.IR via eye drop at 1, 7, and 21 days of age (V-1, V-7, and V-21), or considered as non-vaccinated control groups (C-1, C-7, and C-21). At 20th post-vaccination day, sera hemag-glutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres against ND virus (NDV) were measured and then the chickens were challenged by virulent NDV (vNDV). In the second and third experiments, the efficacy of ND.TR.IR vaccine was compared to routine vaccination program (B1 and LaSota) in native and broiler chickens that were vaccinated at 10 and 20 days of age, respectively. The HI antibody titres were measured on 10, 20, 30, and 40 days of age, and also challenge efficacy test with vNDV was conducted on 30 days of age. Results: The studied virus, as a vaccinal seed, complied with the pathogenicity indices of avirulent NDV and molecular identity of 1-2 strain. In the efficacy evaluation trials, the vaccinated chickens had higher HI antibody titres against NDV compared with their corresponding control chickens (p < 0.05). Results of the challenge tests indicated 95% and 100% protection against vNDV in native, SPF, and broiler-vaccinated chickens, respectively. Conclusions: The present findings indicated that administration of ND.TR.IR induced appropriate HI antibody titres against NDV in SPF, native, and broiler chickens associated with good protection in efficacy test

Maternal mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to explore maternal mortality in the EMR countries. The maternal mortality ratio in the EMR decreased 16.3% from 283 (241-328) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 237 (188-293) in 2015. Maternal mortality ratio was strongly correlated with socio-demographic status, where the lowest-income countries contributed the most to the burden of maternal mortality in the region. Progress in reducing maternal mortality in the EMR has accelerated in the past 15 years, but the burden remains high. Coordinated and rigorous efforts are needed to make sure that adequate and timely services and interventions are available for women at each stage of reproductive life

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe