An Empirically grounded Agent Based simulator for Air Traffic Management in the SESAR scenario

In this paper we present a simulator allowing to perform policy experiments relative to the air traffic management. Different SESAR solutions can be implemented in the model to see the reaction of the different stakeholders as well as other relevant metrics (delay, safety, etc). The model describes both the strategic phase associated to the planning of the flight trajectories and the tactical modifications occurring in the en-route phase. An implementation of the model is available as an open-source software and is freely accessible by any user. More specifically, different procedures related to business trajectories and free-routing are tested and we illustrate the capabilities of the model on an airspace which implements these concepts. After performing numerical simulations with the model, we show that in a free-routing scenario the controllers perform less operations but the conflicts are dispersed over a larger portion of the airspace. This can potentially increase the complexity of conflict detection and resolution for controllers. In order to investigate this specific aspect, we consider some metrics used to measure traffic complexity. We first show that in non-free-routing situations our simulator deals with complexity in a way similar to what humans would do. This allows us to be confident that the results of our numerical simulations relative to the free-routing can reasonably forecast how human controllers would behave in this new situation. Specifically, our numerical simulations show that most of the complexity metrics decrease with free-routing, while the few metrics which increase are all linked to the flight level changes. This is a non-trivial result since intuitively the complexity should increase with free-routing because of problematic geometries and more dispersed conflicts over the airspace

What are the implications of climate change for trans-Atlantic aircraft routing and flight time?

The effect of wind changes on aircraft routing has been identified as a potential impact of climate change on aviation. This is of particular interest for trans-Atlantic flights, where the pattern of upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, in particular the location and strength of the jet stream, strongly influences both the optimal flight route and the resulting flight time. Eastbound trans-Atlantic flights can often be routed to take advantage of the strong tailwinds in the jet stream, shortening the flight time and reducing fuel consumption. Here we investigate the impact of climate change on upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, using five climate model simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, considering a high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario. The impact on aircraft routing and flight time are quantified using flight routing software. The climate models agree that the jet stream will be on average located 1 degree further north, with a small increase in mean strength, by 2100. However daily variations in both its location and speed are significantly larger than the magnitude of any changes due to climate change. The net effect of climate change on trans-Atlantic aircraft routes is small; in the annual-mean eastbound routes are 1 min shorter and located further north and westbound routes are 1 min longer and more spread out around the great circle. There are, however, seasonal variations; route time changes are larger in winter, while in summer both eastbound and westbound route times increase

The economic value of additional airport departure capacity

This article presents a model for the economic value of extra capacity at an airport. The model is based on a series of functional relationships linking the benefits of extra capacity and the associated costs. It takes into account the cost of delay for airlines and its indirect consequences on the airport, through the loss or gain of aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. The model is highly data-driven and to this end a number of data sources have been used. In particular, special care has been used to take into account the full distribution of delay at the airports rather than its average only. The results with the simple version of the model show the existence of a unique maximum for the operating profit of the airport in terms of capacity. The position of this maximum is clearly dependent on the airport and also has an interesting behaviour with the average number of passenger per aircraft at the airport and the predictability of the flight departure times. In addition, we also show that there exists an important trade-off between an increased predictability and the punctuality at the airport. Finally, it is shown that a more complex behavioural model for passengers can introduce several local maxima in the airport profit and thus drive the airport towards suboptimal decisions

Preliminary noise assessment of aircraft with distributed electric propulsion

Electric and hybrid-electric propulsion technologies in aviation are becoming more attractive for aviation stakeholders not only due to the resulting reduction or elimination of the dependency on oil, whose availability and price are uncertain, but also because they are more reliable and efficient than traditional internal combustion engines. Moreover, combined with distributed electric propulsion (DEP), these technologies have shown potential in significantly reducing civil aircraft community noise impact and contribute towards delivering the strict mid-to-long-term environmental goals set by organisations worldwide, such as ACARE and NASA. This paper examines the noise impact of a concept tube and wing aircraft that falls in the A320 category and features various DEP systems using different power supply units (turboshaft engines or batteries) and number of electric propulsors. Meanwhile, considerations required for the transition from conventional to electric propulsion are discussed. Estimated Noise-Power-Distance (NPD) curves and noise exposure contour maps are also presented. It is concluded that indeed, the propulsors’ number is a key parameter for optimising the environmental performance of DEP aircraft and hence maximising the noise benefits. Also, it is shown that based on the entry into service year (2035) technology, totally electric aircraft tend to have a larger noise footprint than aircraft using hybrid electric propulsion systems

Adaptive trajectory planning for flight management systems

Current Flight Management Systems (FMS) can autonomously fly an aircraft from takeoff through landing but may not provide robust operation to anomalous events. We present an adaptive trajectory planner capable of dynamically adjusting its world model and re-computing feasible flight trajectories in response to changes in aircraft performance characteristics. To demonstrate our approach, we consider the class of situations in which an emergency landing at a nearby airport is desired (or required) for safety considerations. Our system incorporates a constraint-based search engine to select and prioritize emergency landing sites, then it synthesizes a waypoint-based trajectory to the best airport based on post-anomaly flight dynamics. We present an engine failure/fuel starvation case study and illustrate the utility of our approach during a simulated thrusting power failure for a B-747 over the Bay Area

The Rebound Effect in the Aviation Sector

The rebound effect, i.e., the (partial) offset of the energy efficiency improvement potential due to a reduction in marginal usage costs and the associated increase in consumer demand, has been extensively studied for residential energy demand and automobile travel. This study presents a quantitative estimate of the rebound effect for an air traffic network including the 22 busiest airports, which serve 14 of the highest O-D cities within the domestic U.S. aviation sector. To satisfy this objective, passenger flows, aircraft operations, flight delays and the resulting energy use are simulated. Our model results indicate that the average rebound effect in this network is about 19%, for the range of aircraft fuel burn reductions considered. This is the net impact of an increase in air transportation supply to satisfy the rising passenger demand, airline operational effects that further increase supply, and the mitigating effects of an increase in flight delays. Although the magnitude of the rebound effect is small, it can be significant for a sector that has comparatively few options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

A framework for the classification and prioritization of arrival and departure routes in Multi-Airport Systems Terminal Manoeuvring Areas

© 2015 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc, AIAA. All right reserved.Typically major cities (London, New York, Tokyo) are served by several airports effectively creating a Multi-Airport System or Metroplex. The operations of the Metroplex airports are highly dependent on one another, which renders their efficient management difficult. This paper proposes a framework for the prioritization of arrival and departure routes in Multi-Airport Systems Terminal Manoeuvring Areas. The framework consists of three components. The first component presents a new procedure for clustering arrival and departure flights into dynamic routes based on their temporal and spatial distributions through the identification of the important traffic flow patterns throughout the day of operations. The second component is a novel Analytic Hierarchy Process model for the prioritization of the dynamic routes, accounting for a set of quantitative and qualitative characteristics important for Multi-Airport Systems operations. The third component is a priority-based model for the facility location of the optimal terminal waypoints (fixes), which accounts for the derived priorities of each dynamic route, while meeting the required separation distances. The proposed Analytic Hierarchy Process model characteristics are validated by subject matter experts. The developed framework is applied to the London Metroplex case study

Applying complexity science to air traffic management

Complexity science is the multidisciplinary study of complex systems. Its marked network orientation lends itself well to transport contexts. Key features of complexity science are introduced and defined, with a specific focus on the application to air traffic management. An overview of complex network theory is presented, with examples of its corresponding metrics and multiple scales. Complexity science is starting to make important contributions to performance assessment and system design: selected, applied air traffic management case studies are explored. The important contexts of uncertainty, resilience and emergent behaviour are discussed, with future research priorities summarised

Shining the light on public attitudes toward laser attacks on aircraft

With increasing incidents being reported, laser attacks present a significant threat to aircraft safety. Although no aircraft accidents have yet been directly attributed to laser attacks to date, experts agree that it is a legitimate threat to safety. To better understand this phenomenon, and ways in which it can be addressed, an important area to understand is the public perception of the severity of such incidents. This would include examining the attitudes the general public hold toward laser attacks, and what views they may hold towards regulation and punishment for these offences. Members of the general public (N=208) completed an online survey that examined their views towards the perceived occurrences and severity of laser attacks, whilst also examining their expectation of criminality and punishment of using a laser against an aircraft. Responses were analysed and presented, with discussion around the nature of public perception and expectation to laser attacks. Mitigations and interventions are explored, focussing on targeted educational/awareness programs that can be used to increase the awareness amongst the general public on the consequences of laser attacks on aircraft