Strategic Generation Capacity Choice under Demand Uncertainty:Analysis of Nash Equilibria in Electricity Markets

Abstract: We analyze a two-stage game of strategic firms facing uncertain demand and exerting market power in decentralized electricity markets. These firms choose their generation capacities at the first stage while anticipating a perfectly competitive future electricity spot market outcome at the second stage; thus it is a closed loop game. In general, such games can be formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and examples have been posed in the literature that have multiple or no equilibria. Therefore, it is of interest to define general sets of conditions under which solutions exist and are unique, which would enhance the value of such models for policy andmarket intelligence purposes. In this paper, we consider various types of such a closed loop model regarding the underlying price-demand relations (elastic and inelastic demand), the assumed demand uncertainty with a broad class of continuous distributions, and any finite number of players with symmetric or asymmetric costs. We establish sufficient conditions for the random demand’s probability distribution which guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria in most of the cases of this closed loop model. We identify a broad class of commonly used continuous probability distributions satisfying these conditions

Generation Capacity Investments in Electricity Markets:Perfect Competition

Abstract: In competitive electricity markets, markets designs based on power exchanges where supply bidding (barring demand-side bidding) is at the sole short run marginal cost may not guarantee resource adequacy. As alternative ways to remedy the resource adequacy problem, we focus on three different market designs in detail when demand is inelastic, namely an energy-only market with VOLL pricing (or a price cap), an additional capacity market, and operating-reserve pricing. We also discuss demand-side bidding (i.e., a price responsive demand) which can be seen as a categorically different alternative to remedy the resource adequacy problem. We consider a perfectly competitive market consisting of three types of agents: generators, a transmission system operator, and consumers; all agents are assumed to have no market power. For each market design, we model and analyze capacity investment choices of firms using a two-stage game where generation capacities are installed in the first stage and generation takes place in future spot markets at the second stage. When future spot market conditions are assumed to be known a priori (i.e., deterministic demand case), we show that all of these two-stage models with different market mechanisms, except operating-reserve pricing, can be cast as single optimization problems. When future spot market conditions are not known in advance (i.e., under demand uncertainty), we essentially have a two-stage stochastic game. Interestingly, an equilibrium point of this stochastic game can be found by solving a two-stage stochastic program, in case of all of the market mechanisms except operating-reserve pricing. In case of operatingreserve pricing, while the formulation of an equivalent deterministic or stochastic optimization problem is possible when operating-reserves are based on observed demand, this simplicity is lost when operatingreserves are based on installed capacities. We generalize these results for other uncertain parameters in spot markets such as fuel costs and transmission capacities. Finally, we illustrate how all these models can be numerically tackled and present numerical experiments. In our numerical experiments, we observe that uncertainty of demand leads to higher total generation capacity expansion and a broader mix of technologies compared to the investment decisions assuming average demand levels. Furthermore for the same VOLL (or price cap) level and under the assumptions of random demand with finite support and no forced outages, energy-onlymarkets with VOLL pricing tend to lead to total generation capacity below the peak load with a certain probability whereas energy markets with a forward capacity market or operating-reserve pricing result in higher investments. Finally, the regulator decisions (e.g., reserve capacity target) in capacity markets and operating-reserve pricing can be chosen in such a way that results in very similar investment levels and fuel mix of generation capacities in b

First evidence of predation of the ant species lasius alienus on the poultry red mite dermanyssus gallinae

The poultry red mite (PRM), Dermanyssus gallinae (De Geer, 1778) (Acari: Dermanyssi-dae), is a common and significant ectoparasite of the poultry industry worldwide. Although various biological, chemical, and physical methods have been attempted, an utterly successful control strategy has not been put forward yet. Our experimental investigations and observations revealed that the ant species Lasius alienus displays an effective predatory behavior on all biological stages of PRM. Our results also suggested that L. alienus is attracted by PRM­infested substrate at a distance. We concluded that predation by the ant on PRM is worth further investigation as it could possibly be an effective biological control strategy. © Kar S. et al

Star formation in the central 0.5 pc of the Milky Way

The supermassive black hole candidate at the Galactic Center is surrounded by a parsec-scale star cluster, which contains a number of early type stars. The presence of such stars has been called a "paradox of youth" as star formation in the immediate vicinity of a supermassive black hole seemed difficult, as well as the transport of stars from far out in a massive-star lifetime. I will recall 30 years of technological developments which led to the current understanding of the nuclear cluster stellar population. The number of early type stars known at present is sufficient to access the 3D structure of this population and its dynamics, which in turn allows discriminating between the various possible origins proposed along the years.Comment: 8 pages, invited review for the conference "The Universe under the Microscope" (AHAR 2008), to be published in Journal of Physics: Conference Series by Institute of Physics Publishin

Nitric oxide biosensor uncovers diminished ferrous iron-dependency of cultured cells adapted to physiological oxygen levels

Iron is an essential metal for cellular metabolism and signaling, but it has adverse effects in excess. The physiological consequences of iron deficiency are well established, yet the relationship between iron supplementation and pericellular oxygen levels in cultured cells and their downstream effects on metalloproteins has been less explored. This study exploits the metalloprotein geNOps in cultured HEK293T epithelial and EA.hy926 endothelial cells to test the iron-dependency in cells adapted to standard room air (18 kPa O2) or physiological normoxia (5 kPa O2). We show that cells in culture require iron supplementation to activate the metalloprotein geNOps and demonstrate for the first time that cells adapted to physiological normoxia require significantly lower iron compared to cells adapted to hyperoxia. This study establishes an essential role for recapitulating oxygen levels in vivo and uncovers a previously unrecognized requirement for ferrous iron supplementation under standard cell culture conditions to achieve geNOps functionality.Integration Projects of Sabanci University ; Heart Research U.K. ; British Heart Foundation ; European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) ; King's Together Strategic Awar

Delayed triggering of radio Active Galactic Nuclei in gas-rich minor mergers in the local Universe

This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society © : 2016 [S. S. Shabala, a. Deller, S. Kaviraj, E. Middelberg, R. J. Turner, Y. S. Ting, J. R. Allison, T. A Davis, 'Delayed triggering of radio active galactic nucle in gas-rich minor mergers in the local Universe', MNRAS (2016) 464(4): 4706-4720]. The final, published version is available online via doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stw2536 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.We examine the processes triggering star formation and Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) activity in a sample of 25 low redshift ($z 10^7$ K) brightness temperature required for an mJIVE-20 detection allows us to unambiguously identify the radio AGN in our sample. We find three such objects. Our VLBI AGN identifications are classified as Seyferts or LINERs in narrow line optical diagnostic plots; mid-infrared colours of our targets and the comparison of H$\alpha$ star formation rates with integrated radio luminosity are also consistent with the VLBI identifications. We reconstruct star formation histories in our galaxies using optical and UV photometry, and find that these radio AGN are not triggered promptly in the merger process, consistent with previous findings for non-VLBI samples of radio AGN. This delay can significantly limit the efficiency of feedback by radio AGN triggered in galaxy mergers. We find that radio AGN hosts have lower star formation rates than non-AGN radio-selected galaxies at the same starburst age. Conventional and VLBI radio imaging shows these AGN to be compact on arcsecond scales. Our modeling suggests that the actual sizes of AGN-inflated radio lobes may be much larger than this, but these are too faint to be detected in existing observations. Deep radio imaging is required to map out the true extent of the AGN, and to determine whether the low star formation rates in radio AGN hosts are a result of the special conditions required for radio jet triggering, or the effect of AGN feedback.Peer reviewe

Evidence for Warped Disks of Young Stars in the Galactic Center

The central parsec around the super-massive black hole in the Galactic Center hosts more than 100 young and massive stars. Outside the central cusp (R~1") the majority of these O and Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars reside in a main clockwise system, plus a second, less prominent disk or streamer system at large angles with respect to the main system. Here we present the results from new observations of the Galactic Center with the AO-assisted near-infrared imager NACO and the integral field spectrograph SINFONI on the ESO/VLT. These include the detection of 27 new reliably measured WR/O stars in the central 12" and improved measurements of 63 previously detected stars, with proper motion uncertainties reduced by a factor of four compared to our earlier work. We develop a detailed statistical analysis of their orbital properties and orientations. Half of the WR/O stars are compatible with being members of a clockwise rotating system. The rotation axis of this system shows a strong transition as a function of the projected distance from SgrA*. The main clockwise system either is either a strongly warped single disk with a thickness of about 10 degrees, or consists of a series of streamers with significant radial variation in their orbital planes. 11 out of 61 clockwise moving stars have an angular separation of more than 30 degrees from the clockwise system. The mean eccentricity of the clockwise system is 0.36+/-0.06. The distribution of the counter-clockwise WR/O star is not isotropic at the 98% confidence level. It is compatible with a coherent structure such as stellar filaments, streams, small clusters or possibly a disk in a dissolving state. The observed disk warp and the steep surface density distribution favor in situ star formation in gaseous accretion disks as the origin of the young stars.Comment: ApJ in pres

Trojan Stars in the Galactic Center

We performed, for the first time, the simulation of spiral-in of a star cluster formed close to the Galactic center (GC) using a fully self-consistent $N$-body model. In our model, the central super-massive black hole (SMBH) is surrounded by stars and the star cluster. Not only are the orbits of stars and the cluster stars integrated self-consistently, but the stellar evolution, collisions and merging of the cluster stars are also included. We found that an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) is formed in the star cluster and stars escaped from the cluster are captured into a 1:1 mean motion resonance with the IMBH. These "Trojan" stars are brought close to the SMBH by the IMBH, which spirals into the GC due to the dynamical friction. Our results show that, once the IMBH is formed, it brings the massive stars to the vicinity of the central SMBH even after the star cluster itself is disrupted. Stars carried by the IMBH form a disk similar to the observed disks and the core of the cluster including the IMBH has properties similar to those of IRS13E, which is a compact assembly of several young stars.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Multiwavelength characterization of faint ultra steep spectrum radio sources: a search for high-redshift radio galaxies

Context. Ultra steep spectrum (USS) radio sources are one of the efficient tracers of powerful high-z radio galaxies (HzRGs). In contrast to searches for powerful HzRGs from radio surveys of moderate depths, fainter USS samples derived from deeper radio surveys can be useful in finding HzRGs at even higher redshifts and in unveiling a population of obscured weaker radio-loud AGN at moderate redshifts. Aims. Using our 325 MHz GMRT observations (5σ ∼ 800 μJy) and 1.4 GHz VLA observations (5σ ∼ 80−100 μJy) available in two subfields (VLA-VIMOS VLT Deep Survey (VLA-VVDS) and Subaru X-ray Deep Field (SXDF)) of the XMM-LSS field, we derive a large sample of 160 faint USS radio sources and characterize their nature. Methods. The optical and IR counterparts of our USS sample sources are searched using existing deep surveys, at respective wavelengths. We attempt to unveil the nature of our faint USS sources using diagnostic techniques based on mid-IR colors, flux ratios of radio to mid-IR, and radio luminosities. Results. Redshift estimates are available for 86/116 (∼74%) USS sources in the VLA-VVDS field and for 39/44 (∼87%) USS sources in the SXDF fields with median values (zmedian) ∼1.18 and ∼1.57, respectively, which are higher than estimates for non-USS radio sources (zmedian non−USS ∼ 0.99 and ∼0.96), in the two subfields. The MIR color–color diagnostic and radio luminosities are consistent with most of our USS sample sources at higher redshifts (z > 0.5) being AGN. The flux ratio of radio to mid-IR (S 1.4 GHz/S 3.6 μm) versus redshift diagnostic plot suggests that more than half of our USS sample sources distributed over z ∼ 0.5 to 3.8 are likely to be hosted in obscured environments. A significant fraction (∼26% in the VLA-VVDS and ∼13% in the SXDF) of our USS sources without redshift estimates mostly remain unidentified in the existing optical, IR surveys, and exhibit high radio to mid-IR flux ratio limits similar to HzRGs, and so, can be considered as potential HzRG candidates. Conclusions. Our study shows that the criterion of ultra steep spectral index remains a reasonably efficient method to select high-z sources even at sub-mJy flux densities. In addition to powerful HzRG candidates, our faint USS sample also contains populations of weaker radio-loud AGNs potentially hosted in obscured environments

Central radio galaxies in galaxy clusters: Joint surveys by eROSITA and ASKAP

The extended ROentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array (eROSITA) telescope onboard the Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma (SRG) mission has finished the first eROSITA All-Sky Survey (eRASS:1), and detected 10$^4$ galaxy clusters in the western Galactic hemisphere. In the radio band, the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) telescope finished its pilot 1 phase of the project 'Evolutionary Map of the Universe' (EMU) with 220.000 sources in a 270 deg$^2$ field overlapping with eRASS:1. These two surveys are used to study radio-mode Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in clusters. In order to understand the efficiency of radio-mode feedback at the centers of galaxy clusters, we relate the radio properties of brightest cluster galaxies (BCG) to the X-ray properties of the host clusters. We identify the central radio sources in eRASS:1 clusters or calculate corresponding upper limits on the radio luminosity. Then, we derive relations between the X-ray properties of the clusters and the radio properties of the corresponding central radio source. We also apply a mid-infrared color criterion using WISE colors to identify AGN. In total we investigate a sample of 75 clusters. We find a statistically significant correlation between the X-ray luminosity of the cluster and the 944 MHz radio luminosity of the corresponding central radio galaxy. There is also a positive trend between the radio power and the largest linear size (LLS) of the radio source. The density and the LLS do not show any correlation. We find that in high luminosity clusters with L_X > $10^{43}$ erg s$^{-1}$ the kinetic luminosity of the radio jets is not longer correlated with the X-ray luminosity and discuss various reasons. We find an anti-correlation between the central cooling time t_cool and the radio luminosity L_R indicating a need for more powerful AGN in clusters with short central cooling times.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in A&