Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval

Development of clinical diagnostic criteria for chronic plaque psoriasis: an international e‐Delphi study

From Wiley via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2020-11-22, rev-recd 2021-03-30, accepted 2021-03-31, pub-electronic 2021-05-31Article version: VoRPublication status: PublishedFunder: Sandoz; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011218Funder: Pfizer; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004319Funder: AlmirallFunder: Celgene; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100006436Funder: Sun Pharmaceuticals and UCB PharmaFunder: Novartis; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004336Funder: BMSFunder: AbbVie; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100006483Funder: Amgen; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100002429Funder: Eli Lilly and Company; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004312Funder: LEO Pharma Research Foundation; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/50110000827

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions

System Size and Energy Dependence of Jet-Induced Hadron Pair Correlation Shapes in Cu+Cu and Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV

We present azimuthal angle correlations of intermediate transverse momentum (1-4 GeV/c) hadrons from {dijets} in Cu+Cu and Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The away-side dijet induced azimuthal correlation is broadened, non-Gaussian, and peaked away from \Delta\phi=\pi in central and semi-central collisions in all the systems. The broadening and peak location are found to depend upon the number of participants in the collision, but not on the collision energy or beam nuclei. These results are consistent with sound or shock wave models, but pose challenges to Cherenkov gluon radiation models.Comment: 464 authors from 60 institutions, 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 2. Using geomagnetic and auroral data

We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC (Solar Influences Data Center) composite of Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [RISNv1], the group sunspot number [RG] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys., 181, 491, 1998), the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0815-8, 2016), and the “corrected” sunspot number [RC] by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5172, 2014). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982 - 2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to RISNv1, RG, RBB, and RC. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) and IDV geomagnetic indices (for 1845 - 2013) fitted over the calibration interval using the various sunspot numbers and the phase of the solar cycle; ii) from the open solar flux (OSF) generated for 1845 - 2013 from four pairings of geomagnetic indices by Lockwood et al. (Ann. Geophys., 32, 383, 2014) and analysed using the OSF continuity model of Solanki, Schüssler, and Fligge (Nature, 408, 445, 2000) which employs a constant fractional OSF loss rate; iii) the same OSF data analysed using the OSF continuity model of Owens and Lockwood (J. Geophys. Res., 117, A04102, 2012) in which the fractional loss rate varies with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet and hence with the phase of the solar cycle; iv) the occurrence frequency of low-latitude aurora for 1780 - 1980 from the survey of Legrand and Simon (Ann. Geophys., 5, 161, 1987). For all cases, RBB exceeds the test terrestrial series by an amount that increases as one goes back in time

Improved Measurement of Double Helicity Asymmetry in Inclusive Midrapidity pi^0 Production for Polarized p+p Collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV

We present an improved measurement of the double helicity asymmetry for pi^0 production in polarized proton-proton scattering at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV employing the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The improvements to our previous measurement come from two main factors: Inclusion of a new data set from the 2004 RHIC run with higher beam polarizations than the earlier run and a recalibration of the beam polarization measurements, which resulted in reduced uncertainties and increased beam polarizations. The results are compared to a Next to Leading Order (NLO) perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (pQCD) calculation with a range of polarized gluon distributions.Comment: 389 authors, 4 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D, Rapid Communications. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Formation of dense partonic matter in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions at RHIC: Experimental evaluation by the PHENIX collaboration

Extensive experimental data from high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions were recorded using the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The comprehensive set of measurements from the first three years of RHIC operation includes charged particle multiplicities, transverse energy, yield ratios and spectra of identified hadrons in a wide range of transverse momenta (p_T), elliptic flow, two-particle correlations, non-statistical fluctuations, and suppression of particle production at high p_T. The results are examined with an emphasis on implications for the formation of a new state of dense matter. We find that the state of matter created at RHIC cannot be described in terms of ordinary color neutral hadrons.Comment: 510 authors, 127 pages text, 56 figures, 1 tables, LaTeX. Submitted to Nuclear Physics A as a regular article; v3 has minor changes in response to referee comments. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Applicability of precision medicine approaches to managing hypertension in rural populations

As part of the Heart Healthy Lenoir Project, we developed a practice level intervention to improve blood pressure control. The goal of this study was: (i) to determine if single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that associate with blood pressure variation, identified in large studies, are applicable to blood pressure control in subjects from a rural population; (ii) to measure the association of these SNPs with subjects’ responsiveness to the hypertension intervention; and (iii) to identify other SNPs that may help understand patient-specific responses to an intervention. We used a combination of candidate SNPs and genome-wide analyses to test associations with either baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) or change in systolic blood pressure one year after the intervention in two genetically defined ancestral groups: African Americans (AA) and Caucasian Americans (CAU). Of the 48 candidate SNPs, 13 SNPs associated with baseline SBP in our study; however, one candidate SNP, rs592582, also associated with a change in SBP after one year. Using our study data, we identified 4 and 15 additional loci that associated with a change in SBP in the AA and CAU groups, respectively. Our analysis of gene-age interactions identified genotypes associated with SBP improvement within different age groups of our populations. Moreover, our integrative analysis identified AQP4-AS1 and PADI2 as genes whose expression levels may contribute to the pleiotropy of complex traits involved in cardiovascular health and blood pressure regulation in response to an intervention targeting hypertension. In conclusion, the identification of SNPs associated with the success of a hypertension treatment intervention suggests that genetic factors in combination with age may contribute to an individual’s success in lowering SBP. If these findings prove to be applicable to other populations, the use of this genetic variation in making patient-specific interventions may help providers with making decisions to improve patient outcomes. Further investigation is required to determine the role of this genetic variance with respect to the management of hypertension such that more precise treatment recommendations may be made in the future as part of personalized medicine