Self-controlled case series with multiple event types

Self-controlled case series methods for events that may be classified as one of several types are described. When the event is non-recurrent, the different types correspond to competing risks. It is shown that, under circumstances that are likely to arise in practical applications, the SCCS multi-type likelihood reduces to the product of the type-specific likelihoods. For recurrent events, this applies whether or not the marginal type-specific counts are dependent. As for the standard SCCS method, a rare disease assumption is required for non-recurrent events. Several forms of this assumption are investigated by simulation. The methods are applied to data on MMR vaccine and convulsions (febrile and non-febrile), and to data on thiazolidinediones and fractures (at different sites)

The methodology of self-controlled case series studies

The self-controlled case series method is increasingly being used in pharmacoepidemiology, particularly in vaccine safety studies. This method is typically used to evaluate the association between a transient exposure and an acute event, using only cases. We present both parametric and semiparametric models using a motivating example on MMR vaccine and bleeding disorders. We briefly describe approaches for interferent events and a sequential version of the method for prospective surveillance of drug safety. The efficiency of the self-controlled case series method is compared to the that of cohort and case control studies. Some further extensions, to long or indefinite exposures and to bivariate counts, are described

Thromboembolic and neurologic sequelae of discontinuation of an antihyperlipidemic drug during ongoing warfarin therapy

Warfarin and antihyperlipidemics are commonly co-prescribed. Some antihyperlipidemics may inhibit warfarin deactivation via the hepatic cytochrome P450 system. Therefore, antihyperlipidemic discontinuation has been hypothesized to result in underanticoagulation, as warfarin metabolism is no longer inhibited. We quantified the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and ischemic stroke (IS) due to statin and fibrate discontinuation in warfarin users, in which warfarin was initially dose-titrated during ongoing antihyperlipidemic therapy. Using 1999-2011 United States Medicaid claims among 69 million beneficiaries, we conducted a set of bidirectional self-controlled case series studies-one for each antihyperlipidemic. Outcomes were hospital admissions for VTE/IS. The risk segment was a maximum of 90 days immediately following antihyperlipidemic discontinuation, the exposure of interest. Time-varying confounders were included in conditional Poisson models. We identified 629 study eligible-persons with at least one outcome. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for all antihyperlipidemics studied were consistent with the null, and ranged from 0.21 (0.02, 2.82) for rosuvastatin to 2.16 (0.06, 75.0) for gemfibrozil. Despite using an underlying dataset of millions of persons, we had little precision in estimating IRRs for VTE/IS among warfarin-treated persons discontinuing individual antihyperlipidemics. Further research should investigate whether discontinuation of gemfibrozil in warfarin users results in serious underanticoagulation

Relation of Trihalomethane Concentrations in Public Water Supplies to Stillbirth and Birth Weight in Three Water Regions in England

We investigated the association between total trihalomethanes (TTHMs) and risk of stillbirth and low and very low birth weight in three water regions in England, 1992–1998; associations with individual trihalomethanes (THMs) were also examined. Modeled estimates of quarterly TTHM concentrations in water zones, categorized as low (< 30 μg/L), medium (30–59 μg/L), or high (≥60 μg/L), were linked to approximately 1 million routine birth and stillbirth records using maternal residence at time of birth. In one region, where there was a positive socioeconomic deprivation gradient across exposure categories, there was also a positive, significant association of TTHM with risk of stillbirth and low and very low birth weight. Overall summary estimates across the three regions using a random-effects model to allow for between-region heterogeneity in exposure effects showed small excess risks in areas with high TTHM concentrations for stillbirths [odds ratio (OR) = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.00–1.23), low birth weight (OR = 1.09; 95% CI, 0.93–1.27), and very low birth weight (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 0.82–1.34). Among the individual THMs, chloroform showed a similar pattern of risk as TTHM, but no association was found with concentrations of bromodichloromethane or total brominated THMs. Our findings overall suggest a significant association of stillbirths with maternal residence in areas with high TTHM exposure. Further work is needed looking at cause-specific stillbirths and effects of other disinfection by-products and to help differentiate between alternative (noncausal) explanations and those that may derive from the water supply

Development of a modified Cambridge Multimorbidity Score for use with SNOMED CT:an observational English primary care sentinel network study

Background People with multiple health conditions are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and greater care and service needs; a reliable measure of multimorbidity would inform management strategies and resource allocation. Aim To develop and validate a modified version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score in an extended age range, using clinical terms that are routinely used in electronic health records across the world (Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine — Clinical Terms, SNOMED CT). Design and setting Observational study using diagnosis and prescriptions data from an English primary care sentinel surveillance network between 2014 and 2019. Method In this study new variables describing 37 health conditions were curated and the associations modelled between these and 1-year mortality risk using the Cox proportional hazard model in a development dataset (n = 300 000). Two simplified models were then developed — a 20-condition model as per the original Cambridge Multimorbidity Score and a variable reduction model using backward elimination with Akaike information criterion as the stopping criterion. The results were compared and validated for 1-year mortality in a synchronous validation dataset (n = 150 000), and for 1-year and 5-year mortality in an asynchronous validation dataset (n = 150 000). Results The final variable reduction model retained 21 conditions, and the conditions mostly overlapped with those in the 20-condition model. The model performed similarly to the 37- and 20-condition models, showing high discrimination and good calibration following recalibration. Conclusion This modified version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score allows reliable estimation using clinical terms that can be applied internationally across multiple healthcare settings

Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study.

The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, to what extent PMVCs are associated with a decreased risk of outbreak has not yet been quantified. We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for in the SCCS method, this method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high, in particular confounding by indication. The locations and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. The study sample consisted of 33 provinces from 11 African countries. Among these, the first outbreak occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (79%) provinces, and during the post-PMVC period in 7 (21%) provinces. At the province level, the post-PMVC period was associated with an 86% reduction (95% CI 66% to 94%, p < 0.001) in the risk of outbreak as compared to the pre-PMVC period. This negative association between exposure to PMVCs and outbreak was robustly observed across a range of sensitivity analyses, especially when using quantitative estimates of vaccination coverage as an alternative exposure measure, or when varying the observation period. In contrast, the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs were associated with a 34% (95% CI 22% to 45%) reduction in the number of outbreaks in Africa from 2005 to 2018. A limitation of our study is the fact that it does not account for potential time-varying confounders, such as changing environmental drivers of yellow fever and possibly improved disease surveillance. In this study, we provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among Blood Donors and Changes after Introduction of Public Health and Social Measures, London, UK.

We describe results of testing blood donors in London, UK, for severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG before and after lockdown measures. Anonymized samples from donors 17-69 years of age were tested using 3 assays: Euroimmun IgG, Abbott IgG, and an immunoglobulin receptor-binding domain assay developed by Public Health England. Seroprevalence increased from 3.0% prelockdown (week 13, beginning March 23, 2020) to 10.4% during lockdown (weeks 15-16) and 12.3% postlockdown (week 18) by the Abbott assay. Estimates were 2.9% prelockdown, 9.9% during lockdown, and 13.0% postlockdown by the Euroimmun assay and 3.5% prelockdown, 11.8% during lockdown, and 14.1% postlockdown by the receptor-binding domain assay. By early May 2020, nearly 1 in 7 donors had evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Combining results from the Abbott and Euroimmun assays increased seroprevalence by 1.6%, 2.3%, and 0.6% at the 3 timepoints compared with Euroimmun alone, demonstrating the value of using multiple assays

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London