Using the Stages of Change Model to Choose an Optimal Health Marketing Target

Background: In the transtheoretical model of behavior change, “stages of change” are defined as Precontemplation (not even thinking about changing), Contemplation, Preparation, Action, and Maintenance (maintaining the behavior change). Marketing principles suggest that efforts should be targeted at persons most likely to “buy the product.” Objectives: To examine the effect of intervening at different stages in populations of smokers, with various numbers of people in each “stage of change.” One type of intervention would increase by 10% the probability of a person moving to the next higher stage of change, such as from Precontemplation to Contemplation. The second type would decrease by 10% the probability of relapsing to the next lower stage, such as from Maintenance to Action, and also of changing from Never Smoker to Smoker. Nine hypothetical interventions were compared with the status quo, to determine which type of intervention would provide the most improvement in population smoking. Methods: Three datasets were used to estimate the probability of moving among the stages of change for smoking. Those probabilities were used to create multi-state life tables, which yielded estimates of the expected number of years the population would spend in each stage of change starting at age 40. We estimated the effect of each hypothetical intervention, and compared the intervention effects. Several initial conditions, time horizons, and criteria for success were examined. Results: A population of 40-year-olds in Precontemplation had a further life expectancy of 36 years, of which 26 would be spent in the Maintenance stage. In a population of former and current smokers, moving more persons from the Action to the Maintenance stage (a form of relapse prevention) decreased the number of years spent smoking more than the any other intervention. In a population of 40-year-olds that included Never Smokers, primary smoking prevention was the most effective. The results varied somewhat by the choice of criterion, the length of follow-up, the initial stage distribution, the data, and the sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: In a population of 40-year-olds, smokers were likely to achieve Maintenance without an intervention. On the population basis, targeting quitters and never-smokers was more effective than targeting current smokers. This finding is supported by some principles of health marketing. Additional research should target younger ages as well as other health behaviors

Impact of major disease outbreaks in the third millennium on adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health and rights in low and/or middle-income countries: a systematic scoping review protocol

Introduction Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR) of young people continue to present a high burden and remain underinvested. This is more so in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), where empirical evidence reveals disruption of SRHR maintenance, need for enhancement of programmes, resources and services during pandemics. Despite the importance of the subject, there is no published review yet combining recent disease outbreaks such as (H1N1/09, Zika, Ebola and SARS-COV-2) to assess their impact on adolescents and youth SRHR in LMICs. Methods and analysis We will adopt a four-step search to reach the maximum possible number of studies. In the first step, we will carry out a limitedpreliminary search in databases for getting relevant keywords (appendix 1). Second, we will search in four databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Embase and PsycINFO. The search would begin from the inception of the first major outbreak in 2009 (H1N1/09) up to the date of publication of the protocol in early 2022. We will search databases using related keywords, screen title & abstract and review full texts of the selected titles to arrive at the list of eligible studies. In the third stage, we will check their eligibility to the included article’s reference list. In the fourth stage, we will check the citations of included papers in phase 2 to complete our study selection. We will include all types of original studies and without any language restriction in our final synthesis. Our review results will be charted for each pandemic separately and include details pertaining to authors, year, country, region of the study, study design, participants (disaggregated by age and gender), purpose and report associated SRHR outcomes. The review will adhere to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guideline (PRISMA-ScR). Patient and public involvement Patients or public were not involved in this study. Ethics and dissemination Ethical assessment is not required for this study. The results of the study will be presented in peer-reviewed publications and conferences on adolescent SRHR

Effectiveness of a training-of-trainers model in a HIV counseling and testing program in the Caribbean Region

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>To evaluate the effectiveness and sustainability of a voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) training program based on a training-of-trainers (TOT) model in the Caribbean Region, we gathered data on the percentage of participants trained as VCT providers who were providing VCT services, and those trained as VCT trainers who were conducting VCT training.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The VCT training program trained 3,489 providers in VCT clinical skills and 167 in VCT training skills within a defined timeframe. An information-monitoring system tracked HIV trainings conducted, along with information about course participants and trainers. Drawing from this database, a telephone survey followed up on program-trained VCT providers; an external evaluation analyzed data on VCT trainers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Almost 65% of trained VCT providers could be confirmed as currently providing VCT services. This percentage did not decrease significantly with time. Of the VCT trainers, 80% became certified as trainers by teaching at least one course; of these, 66% taught more than one course.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A TOT-based training program is an effective and sustainable method for rapid scale-up of VCT services and training capacity in a large-scale VCT program.</p

Determinants of linear growth faltering among children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in the global enteric multicenter study

Background: Moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in the first 2 years of life can impair linear growth. We sought to determine risk factors for linear growth faltering and to build a clinical prediction tool to identify children most likely to experience growth faltering following an episode of MSD.Methods: Using data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study of children 0-23 months old presenting with MSD in Africa and Asia, we performed log-binomial regression to determine clinical and sociodemographic factors associated with severe linear growth faltering (loss of ≥ 0.5 length-for-age z-score [LAZ]). Linear regression was used to estimate associations with ΔLAZ. A clinical prediction tool was developed using backward elimination of potential variables, and Akaike Information Criterion to select the best fit model.Results: Of the 5902 included children, mean age was 10 months and 43.2% were female. Over the 50-90-day follow-up period, 24.2% of children had severe linear growth faltering and the mean ΔLAZ over follow-up was - 0.17 (standard deviation [SD] 0.54). After adjustment for age, baseline LAZ, and site, several factors were associated with decline in LAZ: young age, acute malnutrition, hospitalization at presentation, non-dysenteric diarrhea, unimproved sanitation, lower wealth, fever, co-morbidity, or an IMCI danger sign. Compared to children 12-23 months old, those 0-6 months were more likely to experience severe linear growth faltering (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 1.97 [95% CI 1.70, 2.28]), as were children 6-12 months of age (aPR 1.72 [95% CI 1.51, 1.95]). A prediction model that included age, wasting, stunting, presentation with fever, and presentation with an IMCI danger sign had an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64, 0.69). Risk scores ranged from 0 to 37, and a cut-off of 21 maximized sensitivity (60.7%) and specificity (63.5%).Conclusion: Younger age, acute malnutrition, MSD severity, and sociodemographic factors were associated with short-term linear growth deterioration following MSD. Data routinely obtained at MSD may be useful to predict children at risk for growth deterioration who would benefit from interventions

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in highSDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.publishedVersio

SDSS-III: Massive Spectroscopic Surveys of the Distant Universe, the Milky Way Galaxy, and Extra-Solar Planetary Systems

Building on the legacy of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-I and II), SDSS-III is a program of four spectroscopic surveys on three scientific themes: dark energy and cosmological parameters, the history and structure of the Milky Way, and the population of giant planets around other stars. In keeping with SDSS tradition, SDSS-III will provide regular public releases of all its data, beginning with SDSS DR8 (which occurred in Jan 2011). This paper presents an overview of the four SDSS-III surveys. BOSS will measure redshifts of 1.5 million massive galaxies and Lya forest spectra of 150,000 quasars, using the BAO feature of large scale structure to obtain percent-level determinations of the distance scale and Hubble expansion rate at z<0.7 and at z~2.5. SEGUE-2, which is now completed, measured medium-resolution (R=1800) optical spectra of 118,000 stars in a variety of target categories, probing chemical evolution, stellar kinematics and substructure, and the mass profile of the dark matter halo from the solar neighborhood to distances of 100 kpc. APOGEE will obtain high-resolution (R~30,000), high signal-to-noise (S/N>100 per resolution element), H-band (1.51-1.70 micron) spectra of 10^5 evolved, late-type stars, measuring separate abundances for ~15 elements per star and creating the first high-precision spectroscopic survey of all Galactic stellar populations (bulge, bar, disks, halo) with a uniform set of stellar tracers and spectral diagnostics. MARVELS will monitor radial velocities of more than 8000 FGK stars with the sensitivity and cadence (10-40 m/s, ~24 visits per star) needed to detect giant planets with periods up to two years, providing an unprecedented data set for understanding the formation and dynamical evolution of giant planet systems. (Abridged)Comment: Revised to version published in The Astronomical Journa

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe