Investigating the persistence of tick-borne pathogens via the R0 model

In the epidemiology of infectious diseases, the basic reproduction number,R0, has a number of important applications, most notably it can be used to predict whether a pathogen is likely to become established, or persist, in a given area. We used the R0 model to investigate the persistence of 3 tick-borne pathogens; Babesia microti, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in an Apodemus sylvaticus-Ixodes ricinus system. The persistence of these pathogens was also determined empirically by screening questing ticks and wood mice by PCR. All 3 pathogens behaved differently in response to changes in the proportion of transmission hosts on which I. ricinus fed, the efficiency of transmission between the host and ticks and the abundance of larval and nymphal ticks found on small mammals. Empirical data supported theoretical predictions of the R0 model. The transmission pathway employed and the duration of systemic infection were also identified as important factors responsible for establishment or persistence of tick-borne pathogens in a given tick-host system. The current study demonstrates how the R0 model can be put to practical use to investigate factors affecting tick-borne pathogen persistence, which has important implications for animal and human health worldwide

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background: Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings: Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Conclusions: Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact

Health benefi ts, costs, and cost-eff ectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

Background New WHO guidelines recommend initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive adults with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers have to decide whether to further expand eligibility for antiretroviral therapy accordingly. We aimed to assess the potential health benefi ts, costs, and cost-eff ectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage. Methods We used several independent mathematical models in four settings—South Africa (generalised epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), Zambia (generalised epidemic, high antiretroviral therapy coverage), India (concentrated epidemic, moderate antiretroviral therapy coverage), and Vietnam (concentrated epidemic, low antiretroviral therapy coverage)—to assess the potential health benefi ts, costs, and cost-eff ectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy under scenarios of existing and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses assessed the extension of eligibility to include individuals with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less, or all HIV-positive adults, compared with the previous (2010) recommendation of initiation with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less. We assessed costs from a health-system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost (in US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted to compare competing strategies. Strategies were regarded very cost eff ective if the cost per DALY averted was less than the country’s 2012 per-head gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa:$8040; Zambia: $1425; India:$1489; Vietnam: $1407) and cost eff ective if the cost per DALY averted was less than three times the per-head GDP. Findings In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending eligibility for antiretroviral therapy to adult patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less ranged from$237 to $1691 per DALY averted compared with 2010 guidelines. In Zambia, expansion of eligibility to adults with a CD4 count threshold of 500 cells per μL ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (ie, dominating the previous guidelines) to$749 per DALY averted. In both countries results were similar for expansion of eligibility to all HIV-positive adults, and when substantially expanded treatment coverage was assumed. Expansion of treatment coverage in the general population was also cost eff ective. In India, the cost for extending eligibility to all HIV-positive adults ranged from $131 to$241 per DALY averted, and in Vietnam extending eligibility to patients with CD4 counts of 500 cells per μL or less cost $290 per DALY averted. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access for key populations was also cost eff ective. Interpretation Our estimates suggest that earlier eligibility for antiretroviral therapy is very cost eff ective in lowincome and middle-income settings, although these estimates should be revisited when more data become available. Scaling up antiretroviral therapy through earlier eligibility and expanded coverage should be considered alongside other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets

Observation of an Excited Bc+ State

Using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 8.5 fb-1 recorded by the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies of s=7, 8, and 13 TeV, the observation of an excited Bc+ state in the Bc+π+π- invariant-mass spectrum is reported. The observed peak has a mass of 6841.2±0.6(stat)±0.1(syst)±0.8(Bc+) MeV/c2, where the last uncertainty is due to the limited knowledge of the Bc+ mass. It is consistent with expectations of the Bc∗(2S31)+ state reconstructed without the low-energy photon from the Bc∗(1S31)+→Bc+γ decay following Bc∗(2S31)+→Bc∗(1S31)+π+π-. A second state is seen with a global (local) statistical significance of 2.2σ (3.2σ) and a mass of 6872.1±1.3(stat)±0.1(syst)±0.8(Bc+) MeV/c2, and is consistent with the Bc(2S10)+ state. These mass measurements are the most precise to date

Evidence for the strangeness-changing weak decay Ξb−→Λb0π−\Xi_b^-\to\Lambda_b^0\pi^-

Using a $pp$ collision data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0~fb$^{-1}$, collected by the LHCb detector, we present the first search for the strangeness-changing weak decay $\Xi_b^-\to\Lambda_b^0\pi^-$. No $b$ hadron decay of this type has been seen before. A signal for this decay, corresponding to a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, is reported. The relative rate is measured to be ${{f_{\Xi_b^-}}\over{f_{\Lambda_b^0}}}{\cal{B}}(\Xi_b^-\to\Lambda_b^0\pi^-) = (5.7\pm1.8^{+0.8}_{-0.9})\times10^{-4}$, where $f_{\Xi_b^-}$ and $f_{\Lambda_b^0}$ are the $b\to\Xi_b^-$ and $b\to\Lambda_b^0$ fragmentation fractions, and ${\cal{B}}(\Xi_b^-\to\Lambda_b^0\pi^-)$ is the branching fraction. Assuming $f_{\Xi_b^-}/f_{\Lambda_b^0}$ is bounded between 0.1 and 0.3, the branching fraction ${\cal{B}}(\Xi_b^-\to\Lambda_b^0\pi^-)$ would lie in the range from $(0.57\pm0.21)\%$ to $(0.19\pm0.07)\%$.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2015-047.htm

Measurement of the mass and lifetime of the Ωb−\Omega_b^- baryon

A proton-proton collision data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$ collected by LHCb at $\sqrt{s}=7$ and 8 TeV, is used to reconstruct $63\pm9$ $\Omega_b^-\to\Omega_c^0\pi^-$, $\Omega_c^0\to pK^-K^-\pi^+$ decays. Using the $\Xi_b^-\to\Xi_c^0\pi^-$, $\Xi_c^0\to pK^-K^-\pi^+$ decay mode for calibration, the lifetime ratio and absolute lifetime of the $\Omega_b^-$ baryon are measured to be \begin{align*} \frac{\tau_{\Omega_b^-}}{\tau_{\Xi_b^-}} &= 1.11\pm0.16\pm0.03, \\ \tau_{\Omega_b^-} &= 1.78\pm0.26\pm0.05\pm0.06~{\rm ps}, \end{align*} where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and from the calibration mode (for $\tau_{\Omega_b^-}$ only). A measurement is also made of the mass difference, $m_{\Omega_b^-}-m_{\Xi_b^-}$, and the corresponding $\Omega_b^-$ mass, which yields \begin{align*} m_{\Omega_b^-}-m_{\Xi_b^-} &= 247.4\pm3.2\pm0.5~{\rm MeV}/c^2, \\ m_{\Omega_b^-} &= 6045.1\pm3.2\pm 0.5\pm0.6~{\rm MeV}/c^2. \end{align*} These results are consistent with previous measurements.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-008.htm

Search for the rare decays B0→J/ψγB^{0}\to J/\psi \gamma and Bs0→J/ψγB^{0}_{s} \to J/\psi \gamma

A search for the rare decay of a $B^{0}$ or $B^{0}_{s}$ meson into the final state $J/\psi\gamma$ is performed, using data collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=7$ and $8$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$. The observed number of signal candidates is consistent with a background-only hypothesis. Branching fraction values larger than $1.7\times 10^{-6}$ for the $B^{0}\to J/\psi\gamma$ decay mode are excluded at 90% confidence level. For the $B^{0}_{s}\to J/\psi\gamma$ decay mode, branching fraction values larger than $7.4\times 10^{-6}$ are excluded at 90% confidence level, this is the first branching fraction limit for this decay.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2015-044.htm

First observation and amplitude analysis of the B−→D+K−π−B^{-}\to D^{+}K^{-}\pi^{-} decay

The $B^{-}\to D^{+}K^{-}\pi^{-}$ decay is observed in a data sample corresponding to $3.0~\rm{fb}^{-1}$ of $pp$ collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment during 2011 and 2012. Its branching fraction is measured to be ${\cal B}(B^{-}\to D^{+}K^{-}\pi^{-}) = (7.31 \pm 0.19 \pm 0.22 \pm 0.39) \times 10^{-5}$ where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic and from the branching fraction of the normalisation channel $B^{-}\to D^{+}\pi^{-}\pi^{-}$, respectively. An amplitude analysis of the resonant structure of the $B^{-}\to D^{+}K^{-}\pi^{-}$ decay is used to measure the contributions from quasi-two-body $B^{-}\to D_{0}^{*}(2400)^{0}K^{-}$, $B^{-}\to D_{2}^{*}(2460)^{0}K^{-}$, and $B^{-}\to D_{J}^{*}(2760)^{0}K^{-}$ decays, as well as from nonresonant sources. The $D_{J}^{*}(2760)^{0}$ resonance is determined to have spin~1.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D. Updated following erratum 10.1103/PhysRevD.93.11990

Study of WW boson production in association with beauty and charm

The associated production of a $W$ boson with a jet originating from either a light parton or heavy-flavor quark is studied in the forward region using proton-proton collisions. The analysis uses data corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1.0 and $2.0\,{\rm fb}^{-1}$ collected with the LHCb detector at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. The $W$ bosons are reconstructed using the $W\to\mu\nu$ decay and muons with a transverse momentum, $p_{\rm T}$, larger than 20 GeV in the pseudorapidity range $2.0 20$ GeV and $2.2 < \eta < 4.2$. The sum of the muon and jet momenta must satisfy $p_{\rm T} > 20$ GeV. The fraction of $W+$jet events that originate from beauty and charm quarks is measured, along with the charge asymmetries of the $W\!+\!b$ and $W\!+\!c$ production cross-sections. The ratio of the $W+$jet to $Z+$jet production cross-sections is also measured using the $Z\to\mu\mu$ decay. All results are in agreement with Standard Model predictions

Measurement of the Bs0→J/ψηB_{s}^{0} \rightarrow J/\psi \eta lifetime

Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $3 fb^{-1}$, collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, the effective lifetime in the $B^0_s \rightarrow J/\psi \eta$ decay mode, $\tau_{\textrm{eff}}$, is measured to be $\tau_{\textrm{eff}} = 1.479 \pm 0.034~\textrm{(stat)} \pm 0.011 ~\textrm{(syst)}$ ps. Assuming $CP$ conservation, $\tau_{\textrm{eff}}$ corresponds to the lifetime of the light $B_s^0$ mass eigenstate. This is the first measurement of the effective lifetime in this decay mode.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-017.htm