Ocean Science Series: Redistribution of Fish Catch by Climate Change

Global climate change is expected to affect marine fisheries productivity because of changes in water temperature, ocean currents and other ocean conditions. Marine fisheries are an important food source, and changes in the total amount or geographic distribution of fish available for catch could affect food security. Changes in marine food supply due to climate change, however, were previously unknown

Socio-economic tools to mitigate the impacts of ocean acidification on economies and communities reliant on coral reefs — a framework for prioritization

Coral reef preservation is a challenge for the whole of humanity, not just for the estimated three billion people that directly depend upon coral reefs for their livelihoods and food security. Ocean acidification combined with rising sea surface temperatures, and an array of other anthropogenic influences such as pollution, sedimentation, over fishing, and coral mining represent the key threats currently facing coral reef survival. Here we summarize a list of agreements, policies, and socio-economic tools and instruments that can be used by global, national and local decision-makers to address ocean acidification and associated threats, as identified during an expert workshop in October 2017. We then discuss these tools and instruments at a global level and identify the key tasks for raising decision makers’ awareness. Finally, we suggest ways of prioritizing between different actions or tools for mitigation and adaptation

Data-driven approach for highlighting priority areas for protection in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction

One of the aims of the United Nations (UN) negotiations on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) is to develop a legal process for the establishment of area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, in ABNJ. Here we use a conservation planning algorithm to integrate 55 global data layers on ABNJ species diversity, habitat heterogeneity, benthic features, productivity, and fishing as a means for highlighting priority regions in ABNJ to be considered for spatial protection. We also include information on forecasted species distributions under climate change. We found that parameterizing the planning algorithm to protect at least 30% of these key ABNJ conservation features, while avoiding areas of high fishing effort, yielded a solution that highlights 52,545,634 km2 (23.7%) of ABNJ as high priority regions for protection. Instructing the planning model to avoid ABNJ areas with high fishing effort resulted in relatively minor shifts in the planning solution, when compared to a separate model that did not consider fishing effort. Integrating information on climate change had a similarly minor influence on the planning solution, suggesting that climate-informed ABNJ protected areas may be able to protect biodiversity now and in the future. This globally standardized, data-driven process for identifying priority ABNJ regions for protection serves as a valuable complement to other expert-driven processes underway to highlight ecologically or biologically significant ABNJ regions. Both the outputs and methods exhibited in this analysis can additively inform UN decision-making concerning establishment of ABNJ protected areas

The melting snowball effect: A heuristic for sustainable Arctic governance under climate change

Climate change in the Arctic is occurring at a rapid rate. In Longyearbyen, Svalbard, the world’s northernmost city, deadly avalanches and permafrost thaw-induced architectural destruction has disrupted local governance norms and responsibilities. In the North Atlantic, the warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a rapid expansion of the mackerel stock which has spurred both geo-political tensions but also tensions at the science-policy interface of fish quota setting. These local climate-induced changes have created a domino-like chain reaction that intensifies through time as a warming Arctic penetrates deeper into responsibilities of governing institutions and science institutions. In face with the increasing uncertain futures of climate-induced changes, policy choices also increase revealing a type of “snowballing” of possible futures facing decision-makers. We introduce a portmanteau-inspired concept called “The Melting Snowball Effect” that encompasses the chain reaction (“domino effect”) that increases the number of plausible scenarios (“snowball effect”) with climate change (melting snow, ice and thawing permafrost). We demonstrate the use of “The Melting Snowball Effect” as a heuristic within a Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) framework of anticipation, engagement and reflection. To do this, we developed plausible scenarios based on participatory stakeholder workshops and narratives from in-depth interviews for deliberative discussions among academics, citizens and policymakers, designed for informed decision-making in response to climate change complexities. We observe generational differences in discussing future climate scenarios, particularly that the mixed group where three generations were represented had the most diverse and thorough deliberations.publishedVersio

Fisheries Centre research reports, Vol. 16, no. 3

DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. LIST OF ACRONYMS. CHAPTER 1 Dynamic bioclimate envelope model to predict climate-induced changes in distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates (William W. L. Cheung, Vicky W. Y. Lam and Daniel Pauly). CHAPTER 2 Modelling seasonal distribution of pelagic marine fishes and squids (Vicky W.Y. Lam, William W. L. Cheung, Chris Close, Sally Hodgson, Reg Watson and Daniel Pauly). CHAPTER 3 Asymmetry in latitudinal, longitudinal and bathymetric distribution of marine fishes and inverterbrates (Daniel Pauly, William W. L. Cheung, Chris Close, Sally Hodgson, Vicky W.Y. Lam and Reg Watson).Fisheries Centre (FC)UnreviewedFacultyResearcherGraduat

Fisheries catch misreporting and its implications: The case of Senegal

The marine resources in Senegal are still relatively abundant, and Senegalese fisheries generate a high economic value for local communities. These fisheries are characterized by a large number of distant-water fleets alternating between legal and illegal operations, depending on circumstances, and a rapid increase of artisanal fishing effort. The extent of the impact of artisanal fisheries on fisheries resources and the Senegalese economy is as poorly known as is the level of illegal unreported and unregulated (IUU) industrial fishing. The former relies on official surveys and voluntary reports by fishers, while the existence of the latter was largely denied in the past. Large and frequent ‘migrations’ (i.e., incursions into the waters of neighbouring countries) by Senegalese artisanal fishers, under-estimation of fishing effort and increasing conflicts over fisheries suggest that officially reported catch data do not reflect reality. A thorough literature review, experts and industry consultations were used to reconstruct Senegalese fisheries catch data. Official national data were compared to the data supplied to FAO and adjusted from 1950 to 2010. Reported and missing sub-sectors, including artisanal catches within and outside Senegalese waters, non-commercial sub-sectors, and industrial catches by the legal and illegal fleets, were conservatively re-assessed. The impacts of the intensive illegal fishing activities on artisanal fisheries and the economy were investigated. The results showed substantial under-reporting, ranging from 4 times higher than the official data in the past to about 1.6 times recently. Artisanal fisheries, according to official data, were responsible for 50% of total extractions, as opposed to 80% 20 years ago. However, while catches by migrant fishers increased dramatically, artisanal catches from Senegalese waters decreased despite an increasing effort, suggesting over-capacity. IUU catches, which were worth around $ 300 million US annually, whether transhipped or otherwise spirited out of Senegalese waters, or discarded, represent a huge loss to Senegal. Also, the foreign fleet, illegally exploiting Senegalese fisheries resources, impact strongly on the migrations of Senegalese artisanal fishers, who in turn increase their migrations as an adaptation strategy to meet their need for fish in the face of rapid resource depletion