Biogeochemical impact of tropical instability waves in the equatorial Pacific

Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) have been suggested to fertilize the equatorial Pacific in iron leading to enhanced ecosystem activity. Using a coupled dynamical-biogeochemical model, we show that contrary to this suggestion, TIWs induce a decrease of iron concentration by 20% at the equator and by about 3% over the "TIW box" [90°W- 180, 5°N-5°S]. Chlorophyll decreases by 10% at the equator and 1% over the "TIW box". This leads to a decrease of new production up to 10% at the equator (4% over the "TIW box"). TIW-induced horizontal advection brings more iron-depleted water to the equator than it exports iron-rich equatorial water to the north. Additional iron decrease is caused by TIW-induced iron vertical diffusion. These two mechanisms are partly counter balanced by a decrease of iron biological uptake, driven by weaker phytoplankton concentration, and to a lesser extend by TIW- induced iron vertical advection

Optimal surface salinity perturbations of the meridional overturning and heat transport in a global ocean general circulation model

Recent observations and modeling studies have stressed the influence of surface salinity perturbations on the North Atlantic circulation over the past few decades. As a step toward the estimation of the sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation to salinity anomalies, optimal initial surface salinity perturbations are computed and described for a realistic mean state of a global ocean general circulation model [Océan Parallélisé (OPA)]; optimality is defined successively with respect to the meridional overturning circulation intensity and the meridional heat transport maximum. Although the system is asymptotically stable, the nonnormality of the dynamics is able to produce a transient growth through an initial stimulation. Optimal perturbations are calculated subject to three constraints: the perturbation applies to surface salinity; the perturbation conserves the global salt content; and the perturbation is normalized, to remove the degeneracy in the linear maximization problem. Maximization using Lagrangian multipliers leads to explicit solutions (rather than eigenvalue problems), involving the integration of the model adjoint for each value to maximize.The most efficient transient growth for the intensity of the meridional overturning circulation appears for a delay of 10.5 yr after the perturbation by the optimal surface salinity anomaly. This optimal growth is induced by an initial anomaly located north of 50°N. In the same way, the most efficient transient growth for the intensity of the meridional heat transport appears for a shorter delay of 2.2 yr after the perturbation by the optimal surface salinity anomaly. This initial optimal perturbation corresponds to a zonal salinity gradient around 24°N. The optimal surface salinity perturbations studied herein yield upper bounds on the intensity of the response in meridional overturning circulation and meridional heat transport. Using typical amplitudes of the Great Salinity Anomalies, the upper bounds for the associated variability are 0.8 Sv (1 Sv ? 106 m3 s?1) (11% of the mean circulation) and 0.03 PW (5% of the mean circulation), respectively

Cirene : air-sea iInteractions in the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge region

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90 (2009): 1337-1350, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2499.1.The Vasco—Cirene program ex-plores how strong air—sea inter-actions promoted by the shallow thermocline and high sea surface temperature in the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge results in marked variability at synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual time scales. The Cirene oceano-graphic cruise collected oceanic, atmospheric, and air—sea flux observations in this region in Jan-uary—February 2007. The contem-poraneous Vasco field experiment complemented these measure-ments with balloon deployments from the Seychelles. Cirene also contributed to the development of the Indian Ocean observing system via deployment of a moor-ing and 12 Argo profilers. Unusual conditions prevailed in the Indian Ocean during Janu-ary and February 2007, following the Indian Ocean dipole climate anomaly of late 2006. Cirene measurements show that the Seychelles—Chagos thermocline ridge had higher-than-usual heat content with subsurface anomalies up to 7°C. The ocean surface was warmer and fresher than average, and unusual eastward currents prevailed down to 800 m. These anomalous conditions had a major impact on tuna fishing in early 2007. Our dataset also sampled the genesis and maturation of Tropical Cyclone Dora, including high surface temperatures and a strong diurnal cycle before the cyclone, followed by a 1.5°C cool-ing over 10 days. Balloonborne instruments sampled the surface and boundary layer dynamics of Dora. We observed small-scale structures like dry-air layers in the atmosphere and diurnal warm layers in the near-surface ocean. The Cirene data will quantify the impact of these finescale features on the upper-ocean heat budget and atmospheric deep convection.CNES funded the Vasco part of the experiment; INSU funded the Cirene part. R/V Suroît is an Ifremer ship. The contributions from ODU, WHOI, and FOI (Sweden) are supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number 0525657. The participation of the University of Miami group was funded though NASA (NNG04HZ33C). PMEL participation was supported through NOAA’s Office of Climate Observation

A road map to IndOOS-2 better observations of the rapidly warming Indian Ocean

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(11), (2020): E1891-E1913, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0209.1The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), established in 2006, is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond. Almost one-third of humanity lives around the Indian Ocean, many in countries dependent on fisheries and rain-fed agriculture that are vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. The Indian Ocean alone has absorbed a quarter of the global oceanic heat uptake over the last two decades and the fate of this heat and its impact on future change is unknown. Climate models project accelerating sea level rise, more frequent extremes in monsoon rainfall, and decreasing oceanic productivity. In view of these new scientific challenges, a 3-yr international review of the IndOOS by more than 60 scientific experts now highlights the need for an enhanced observing network that can better meet societal challenges, and provide more reliable forecasts. Here we present core findings from this review, including the need for 1) chemical, biological, and ecosystem measurements alongside physical parameters; 2) expansion into the western tropics to improve understanding of the monsoon circulation; 3) better-resolved upper ocean processes to improve understanding of air–sea coupling and yield better subseasonal to seasonal predictions; and 4) expansion into key coastal regions and the deep ocean to better constrain the basinwide energy budget. These goals will require new agreements and partnerships with and among Indian Ocean rim countries, creating opportunities for them to enhance their monitoring and forecasting capacity as part of IndOOS-2.We thank the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its core project on Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR), the Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (IOGOOS), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO), the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) for providing the financial support to bring international scientists together to conduct this review. We thank the members of the independent review board that provided detailed feedbacks on the review report that is summarized in this article: P. E. Dexter, M. Krug, J. McCreary, R. Matear, C. Moloney, and S. Wijffels. PMEL Contribution 5041. C. Ummenhofer acknowledges support from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Award for Innovative Research.2021-05-0

Western Pacific oceanic heat content: a better predictor of La Niña than of El Niño

The western equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content (Warm Water Volume in the west or WWVW) is the best El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictorbeyond1‐year lead. Using observations and selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, we show that a discharged WWVW in boreal fall is a better predictor of La Niña than a recharged WWVW for El Niño13 months later, both in terms of occurrence and amplitude. These results are robust when considering the heat content across the entire equatorial Pacific (WWV) at shorter lead‐times, including all CMIP5 models or excluding Niño‐Niña and Niña‐Niño phase transitions. Suggested mechanisms for this asymmetry include 1) the negatively skewed WWVW distribution with stronger discharges related to stronger wind stress anomalies during El Niño and 2) the stronger positive Bjerknes feedback loop during El Niño. The possible role of stronger subseasonal wind variations during El Niño is also discussed

A sustained ocean observing system in the Indian Ocean for climate related scientific knowledge and societal needs

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hermes, J. C., Masumoto, Y., Beal, L. M., Roxy, M. K., Vialard, J., Andres, M., Annamalai, H., Behera, S., D'Adamo, N., Doi, T., Peng, M., Han, W., Hardman-Mountford, N., Hendon, H., Hood, R., Kido, S., Lee, C., Lees, T., Lengaigne, M., Li, J., Lumpkin, R., Navaneeth, K. N., Milligan, B., McPhaden, M. J., Ravichandran, M., Shinoda, T., Singh, A., Sloyan, B., Strutton, P. G., Subramanian, A. C., Thurston, S., Tozuka, T., Ummenhofer, C. C., Unnikrishnan, A. S., Venkatesan, R., Wang, D., Wiggert, J., Yu, L., & Yu, W. (2019). A sustained ocean observing system in the Indian Ocean for climate related scientific knowledge and societal needs. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 355, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00355.The Indian Ocean is warming faster than any of the global oceans and its climate is uniquely driven by the presence of a landmass at low latitudes, which causes monsoonal winds and reversing currents. The food, water, and energy security in the Indian Ocean rim countries and islands are intrinsically tied to its climate, with marine environmental goods and services, as well as trade within the basin, underpinning their economies. Hence, there are a range of societal needs for Indian Ocean observation arising from the influence of regional phenomena and climate change on, for instance, marine ecosystems, monsoon rains, and sea-level. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), is a sustained observing system that monitors basin-scale ocean-atmosphere conditions, while providing flexibility in terms of emerging technologies and scientificand societal needs, and a framework for more regional and coastal monitoring. This paper reviews the societal and scientific motivations, current status, and future directions of IndOOS, while also discussing the need for enhanced coastal, shelf, and regional observations. The challenges of sustainability and implementation are also addressed, including capacity building, best practices, and integration of resources. The utility of IndOOS ultimately depends on the identification of, and engagement with, end-users and decision-makers and on the practical accessibility and transparency of data for a range of products and for decision-making processes. Therefore we highlight current progress, issues and challenges related to end user engagement with IndOOS, as well as the needs of the data assimilation and modeling communities. Knowledge of the status of the Indian Ocean climate and ecosystems and predictability of its future, depends on a wide range of socio-economic and environmental data, a significant part of which is provided by IndOOS.This work was supported by the PMEL contribution no. 4934

Variabilité océan-atmosphère du secteur Indo-Pacifique

The tropical Indian and Pacific oceans share the largest span of warm water and deep atmospheric convection on our planet, which is also the ascending part of the Walker circulation, an essential component of the climate system. This region is also home to strong atmospheric and oceanic intraseasonal to interannual variability, with strong climatic consequences. The El Niño phenomenon, and, to a lesser extent, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) indeed have strong climatic consequences around these two basins, but also at global scale. Intraseasonal variability linked to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is also important, with its modulation of Indian and Australian monsoons and its potentially important role in triggering El Niño. In this document, I describe my research on intraseasonal to interannual oceanic and atmospheric variability in the Indian and Pacific basins. El Niño or the IOD are by essence coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena: they result from positive feeadbacks arising from air-sea interactions (the "Bjerknes feedback"). At intraseasonal timescale, the coupling seems less important and only partially modifies the characteristic of a dominantly atmospheric or oceanic mode of variability. For example, Tropical Instability Waves in the eastern Pacific are the results of internal oceanic instabilities. However, they influence the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and the surface windstress, and this feedback tends to reduce slightly their variability. On the other hand, the MJO is predominantly an atmospheric process, resulting from the coupling between atmospheric dynamics and deep atmospheric convection. But I will show that this phenomenon induce astrong oceanic response in the Indian ocean, both in terms of dynamics and surface temperature. The degree to which air-sea coupling influences properties of the MJO however remains an open question. I will also discuss interactions between those various modes of variability. I will for example illustrate how intraseasonal atmospheric variability can trigger an El Niño; how an El Niño can suppress tropical instability waves and be affected in return; how the IOD modulates the MJO activity and the interactions between the IOD and El Niño. I will then discuss a region of the Indian ocean which is emblematic of these scale interactions and in which I have developed past (Cirene cruises from 2005 and 2008) and hopefully future (TRIO cruise) observational programs. The 5°S-10°S band in the Indian Ocean has an elevated thermocline and shallow mixed layer due to climatological Ekman pumping, but high SST close to the threshold of deep atmospheric convection. These two factors increase air-sea coupling in this region, which has clear variability at synoptic (cyclones), intraseasonal (MJO) and interannual (IOD) timescales. This region has strong climatic consequences and impacts the quality of the following Indian monsoon, the number of cyclones in the Madagascar-La Réunion area and even atmospheric patterns over the Maritime continent and Northern Pacific ocean. I will conclude by presenting my future research plans and my projects in terms of cruises and observational networks.Les océans Pacifique et Indien tropicaux se partagent la plus grande étendue d'eau chaude et de convection profonde de la planète. Cette région est le siège de la branche ascendante de la circulation de Walker, circulation atmosphérique d'échelle planétaire parfois décrite comme la " machine thermique " de la Terre. Cette région, dont les répercussions sur le climat sont importantes, est aussi source de variabilité océanique et atmosphérique aux échelles intrasaisonnières et interannuelles . En effet, la variabilité interannuelle associée à El Niño, dans l'océan Pacifique, et - dans une moindre mesure - au dipôle de l'Océan Indien (DOI) ont des conséquences climatiques marquées sur les pourtours de ces bassins et à l'échelle du globe. La variabilité intrasaisonnière liée à l'oscillation de Madden-Julian (OMJ) a également des conséquences climatiques marquées : modulations des moussons indiennes et australiennes et un rôle potentiellement important dans le déclenchement d'ENSO. Dans ce mémoire, je vais décrire mes travaux de recherche sur la variabilité océanique et atmosphérique aux échelles intrasaisonnière et interannuelle dans les Océans Indien et Pacifique. El Niño ou le DOI sont des modes couplés : c'est la rétroaction positive découlant des interactions océan-atmosphère qui est source de variabilité (le " Bjerknes feedback "). À l'échelle intrasaisonnière, le rôle du couplage océan-atmosphère semble moins primordial, et modifie seulement des modes de variabilité essentiellement atmosphériques ou océaniques. Par exemple, les ondes d'instabilité dans le Pacifique Est sont le résultat d'une instabilité interne océanique. Cependant, elles affectent la stabilité atmosphérique, les vents de surface, et cela tend à réduire légèrement leur activité. À l'inverse, l'OMJ est un phénomène dont la source est atmosphérique, naissant du couplage entre dynamique et convection dans les tropiques. Toutefois, nous verrons que ce phénomène a une réponse océanique forte dans l'Océan Indien, à la fois en termes de dynamique et de thermodynamique. Le degré d'influence du couplage dans les propriétés de l'OMJ reste toutefois une question largement ouverte. Nous nous intéresserons aussi à la question des interactions entre ces différents modes de variabilité. Nous verrons par exemple comment la variabilité intrasaisonnière atmosphérique peut déclencher un El Niño, comment El Niño peut supprimer l'activité des ondes tropicales d'instabilité et l'effet retour, comment le DOI module l'activité de l'OMJ et enfin, quelles sont les interactions entre DOI et El Niño. Je présenterai alors une région de l'Océan Indien assez emblématique de ces interactions d'échelle, et dans laquelle j'ai développé une activité d'observations (campagnes océanographiques Cirene de 2005 à 2008 et projet de campagne TRIO). La bande 5°S-10°S dans l'Océan Indien est une région très particulière. En raison de la structure des vents, la thermocline y est proche de la surface et la couche de mélange est peu profonde, ce qui induit une forte réactivité de la température de surface aux sollicitations de l'atmosphère. De plus, la température de surface en hiver boréal est proche du seuil de convection, impliquant une sensibilité accrue de l'atmosphère à de petites variations de température. Ces deux facteurs augmentent le couplage océan atmosphère dans cette région qui a une variabilité très marquée aux échelles synoptiques (cyclones), intrasaisonnières (OMJ) et interannuelle (réponse à El Niño, mais aussi au DOI). Cette région a enfin des conséquences climatiques marquées (sur l'intensité des pluies de la mousson suivante, sur le nombre de cyclones dans le secteur La Réunion-Madagascar, sur la convection au-dessus du continent maritime, et même sur l'Amérique du Nord). Pour conclure, je présenterai ma réflexion sur mes axes de recherches futurs, ainsi que mes projets en termes de campagnes et réseaux d'observations