The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr(-1) towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr(-1). Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.Peer reviewe

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale

This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant P2BEP3_195232) and by the Academy of Finland (project 323527 and project 329251).Species' range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Characteristics of the life history and distribution of the Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus in the Republic of Macedonia.

Бела кања Neophron percnopterus (Aves: Accipitridae) је глобално угрожени, мали, опортунистички, моногамни, углавном солитарни и дугоживећи лешинар, распрострањен у јужним деловима Европе, Блиског Истока, Кавказа, централне Азије, Индије, и северне Африке, са светском популацијом од 13000-41000 адултних јединки. Популација у Европи броји око 3300-5050 парова. Глобална популација је забележила драматични пад, интензиван и у Европи, и већ је потпуно нестала са неких делова Балкана. У Европи се антропогени фактори, нарочито тровање, уништавање станишта, редукција извора хране и узнемиравање, сматрају за најозбиљније факторе угрожавања. Македонска популација белих кања је пала за око 86% у задње три декаде, и за безмало 50% током задњих 10 година, да би бројала само око 21 пар на почетку 2012. године. Зато, циљеви овог рада су: да се прикаже рецентна дистрибуција беле кање у Републици Македонији, да се анализира тренд популације и промене у просторној дистрибуцији парова и њихова густина гнежђења, да увид у репродуктивне параметре врсте, идентификују најзначајнији фактори за пад популације уз анализу фактора који утичу на опстанак територија и на праметре гнежђења. Исто тако, у циљу ефетивне заштите врсте, одређује се највероватна судбине популације беле кање у Македонији, утврђује се њен национални статус угрожености, и идентификују се најбоље мере заштите за очување ове врсте. Теренска истраживања су вршена у периоду 2003. - 2011. године, узимајући територију као јединицу посматрања да би се одредила величина и тренд популације. Просторне анализе су рађење у GIS-у, коришћењем χ2 за одређивање фрекфенције дистрибуције, G-статистике као меру равномерности дистрибуције гнезда и Mann-Whitney U-test за одређивање значајности тих промена, уз прорачунавање густине гнежђења. Гнездећи параметри (продуктивност популације, успех гнежђења и стопа пролетавања) су били праћени у периоду 2006. – 2011., а поређења између парова и година су урађена једнофакторском ANOVA-ом...The Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus (Aves: Accipitridae) is a globally endangered, small, opportunistic, monogamous, mostly solitary and long-lived vulture, distributed in the southern parts of Europe, the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia and north Africa, with global population of 13000-41000 adult individuals. The European population is estimated to 3300-5050 pairs. The global population experienced dramatic decline, intensive also in Europe, and has completely disappeared from some parts of the Balkan Peninsula. In Europe the anthropogenic factors, particularly poisoning, destruction of the habitats, food source reduction and disturbance are considered to be the most important factors leading to the decline. The Macedonian population of the Egyptian Vulture has declined for about 86% in the last three decades, and for almost 50% in the last 10 years, counting only about 21 pairs in the beginning of the 2012. Therefore, the goals of the present work are to show the recent distribution of the Egyptian Vulture in Macedonia, to analyse the population trend and changes in the spatial distribution of the breeding pairs and their breeding densities, to show the breeding parameters of the species, identify the most important factors leading to population decrease with analysis of the factors affecting territory persistence and breeding parameters. Aiming at more effective conservation of the species, this works points out the most probable destiny of the Egyptian Vulture in Macedonia, establishes its national conservation status and identifies the best conservation measures for its preservation. The field work was performed in the period 2003 - 2011, using territory as the observation unit in order to establish the size and the trend of the population. The spatial analyses were performed in GIS, using χ2 to determine the frequencies of the distribution, G-statistics as a measure of regularity of the nest distribution, and Mann-Whitney U-test to check for significance in those changes, also calculating the breeding densities. The breeding parameters (productivity of the population, breeding success and the fledging rate) were studied in the period 2006-2011 and comparisons among the pairs and among the years were done with One-way ANOVA..

Моноспитовско Блато: последното мочуриште во Македонија

Моноспитовското Блато е најпространото водно станиште од блатно-мочуришен тип во Република Македонија. Тоа денеска претставува само мал остаток од некогашните пространи површини под вода, трска и влажни ливади богати со жив свет. Освен од флористички аспект, неговата биолошка разновидност е многу малку проучена, и се надеваме дека податоците дадени во оваа публикација ќе го побудат интересот за понатамошни проучувања. Заштитата на Моноспитовското Блато денеска претставува приоритет за чие исполнување е неопходно уште подлабоко познавање на состојбата со биолошката разновидност, активностите на локалното население и многубројните закани кои го загрозуваат неговиот опстанок

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability

Abstract Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting