Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Final design proposal: Delta Group-Nood Rider 821(tm)

The Nood Rider 821 (trademark) twin-engine, prop passenger aircraft is described. It is argued that the aircraft is very economical to operate and maintain, offering competitive advantages in the air travel marketplace. The aircraft was designed to operate in 'Aeroworld', a fictional world where the passengers are ping pong balls and the distances between cites are on the order of thousands of feet

A Double-Blind Randomized Phase I Clinical Trial Targeting ALVAC-HIV Vaccine to Human Dendritic Cells

BACKGROUND: We conducted a novel pilot study comparing different delivery routes of ALVAC-HIV (vCP205), a canarypox vaccine containing HIV gene inserts: env, gag and pol. We explored the concept that direct ex vivo targeting of human dendritic cells (DC) would enhance the immune response compared to either conventional intramuscular or intradermal injections of the vaccine alone. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Healthy HIV-1 uninfected volunteers were administered ALVAC-HIV or placebo by intramuscular injection (i.m.), intradermal injection (i.d.) or subcutaneous injection (s.q.) of autologous ex vivo transfected DC at months 0, 1, 3 and 6. All vaccine delivery routes were well tolerated. Binding antibodies were observed to both the ALVAC vector and HIV-1 gp160 proteins. Modest cellular responses were observed in 2/7 individuals in the DC arm and 1/8 in the i.m. arm as determined by IFN-γ ELISPOT. Proliferative responses were most frequent in the DC arm where 4/7 individuals had measurable responses to multiple HIV-1 antigens. Loading DC after maturation resulted in lower gene expression, but overall better responses to both HIV-1 and control antigens, and were associated with better IL-2, TNF-α and IFN-γ production. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: ALVAC-HIV delivered i.m., i.d. or s.q. with autologous ex vivo transfected DC proved to be safe. The DC arm was most immunogenic. Proliferative immune responses were readily detected with only modest cytotoxic CD8 T cell responses. Loading mature DC with the live viral vaccine induced stronger immune responses than loading immature DC, despite increased transgene expression with the latter approach. Volunteers who received the autologous vaccine loaded mature DC developed a broader and durable immune response compared to those vaccinated by conventional routes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00013572

The malleability of stigmatizing attitudes: Combining imagined social contact with implicit attitude feedback

© 2016, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Research is reported that examines whether imagined social contact combined with implicit attitude feedback may be an effective intervention for inducing changes in attitudes toward mental ill health. The Implicit Relational Assessment Procedure (IRAP) captured participants’ implicit attitudes toward individuals with a mental illness and provided a measure of attitude bias. Forty-eight participants (17 male, 95.8% White British) were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions: (1) Imagined social contact with implicit attitude feedback, (2) imagined social contact without feedback, (3) control with feedback, and (4) control without feedback. This resulted in a data set detailing 12,288 implicit responses, with each participant completing 256 IRAP trials. Participants then completed an attitude change assessment 24 hours later. Results revealed that imagined social contact was successful in changing implicit attitudes, with the addition of implicit attitude feedback further strengthening participants’ positive attitudes toward mental ill health. Explicit attitudes remained unaffected. These findings are the first to highlight the practical importance of combining imagined social contact with implicit attitude feedback to improve attitudes toward out-groups who are stigmatized

Determinations of Levels of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 RNA in Plasma: Reassessment of Parameters Affecting Assay Outcome

Appropriate interpretation of HIV-1 RNA levels requires an understanding of differences in test results due to multiple factors, which include assay and biological variation as well as specimen-handling conditions. Multiple investigations with diverse patient populations and assays have suggested that the contributions of technical and biological variations to RNA levels were quite consistent and predictable and in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 log10 RNA copies/ml. To date, all of the studies that have assessed variations in the levels of HIV-1 RNA measured have been limited primarily to isolates of the B clade; thus, what is lacking is knowledge of the degree to which the clade subtype influences assay variation and whether the biological variation observed with the clade B subtype is consistent for other clades. The major finding from the workshop was the unexpected stability of the HIV-1 RNA collected and stored under a variety of specimen handling conditions. HIV-1 RNA was shown to be relatively stable in whole blood, plasma, and serum, with the greatest stability being in plasma. Separated plasma was found to have stable titers even after storage at room temperature for 24 to 48 h and repeated freeze-thaw cycles. Within the constraints of the studies described here, the potential differences in RNA levels due to various specimen- handling conditions were not large (10 to 20% due to the anticoagulant type used in the collection tube [30 to 80% if serum rather than plasma is used], 10 to 30% due to time at RT prior to processing within 24 h, 30 to 80% due to the use of a storage temperature of -20 or -80°C). Thus, the anticipated RNA levels for nonideally collected and processed plasma specimens may be only about 130% (0.11 log10) less than those for plasma specimens collected and processed ideally (assuming that these differences are additive). This 130% difference is relatively small compared to the potential total average standard deviation of up to about 400% or 0.6 log10 RNA copies/ml due to intra- and interassay (both 0.1 to 0.2 log10) and biological (0.1 to 0.2 log10) RNA copies/ml factors. On the basis of these findings, workshop participants concluded that retrospective studies, including those which have used sera or heparinized samples, should show biological comparability to studies performed under ideal conditions, and thus both retrospective and prospective studies are useful in providing an understanding of the role of HIV-1 RNA levels in blood in transmission and disease progression. However, for prospectively designed studies, workshop participants recommended that blood for quantitative HIV-1 RNA testing ideally be collected in tubes containing EDTA, processed within 6 h of collection (but up to 24 h is still acceptable), and then stored at -80°C until assayed. Novel methodological approaches which could be useful in diagnosing and quantitating viral load in developing countries were also described, i.e., the use of DPSs, or in other body fluids such as cervical-vaginal secretions, i.e., sno-strip wicks. Finally, workshop participants determined what laboratory evaluations, including assays of HIV-1 RNA levels, with blood samples should be a priority in pediatric cohort studies while acknowledging that this ultimately depends on the study question being asked. Recommendations concerning specimen handling were then developed for international and domestic studies that use assays for detection of HIV-1 RNA. The findings reported herein underscore the continued need for the exchange of information among investigation and industry with the aim of elucidating the technological parameters that influence the assays used to evaluate HIV-1 disease and therapeutic interventions. Only by understanding the factors that affect assay outcome can we appropriately discern their value and use in clinical studies and for patient management

A modest start, but a steady rise in research use: a longitudinal study of nurses during the first five years in professional life

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Newly graduated nurses are faced with a challenging work environment that may impede their ability to provide evidence-based practice. However, little is known about the trajectory of registered nurses' use of research during the first years of professional life. Thus, the aim of the current study was to prospectively examine the extent of nurses' use of research during the first five years after undergraduate education and specifically assess changes over time.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Survey data from a prospective cohort of 1,501 Swedish newly graduated nurses within the national LANE study (Longitudinal Analyses of Nursing Education and Entry in Worklife) were used to investigate perceived use of research over the first five years as a nurse. The dependent variables consisted of three single items assessing instrumental, conceptual, and persuasive research use, where the nurses rated their use on a five-point scale, from 'never' (1) to 'on almost every shift' (5). These data were collected annually and analyzed both descriptively and by longitudinal growth curve analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Instrumental use of research was most frequently reported, closely followed by conceptual use, with persuasive use occurring to a considerably lower extent. The development over time showed a substantial general upward trend, which was most apparent for conceptual use, increasing from a mean of 2.6 at year one to 3.6 at year five (unstandardized slope +0.25). However, the descriptive findings indicated that the increase started only after the second year. Instrumental use had a year one mean of 2.8 and a year five mean of 3.5 (unstandardized slope +0.19), and persuasive use showed a year one mean of 1.7 and a year five mean of 2.0 (unstandardized slope +0.09).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There was a clear trend of increasing research use by nurses during their first five years of practice. The level of the initial ratings also indicated the level of research use in subsequent years. However, it took more than two years of professional development before this increase 'kicked in.' These findings support previous research claiming that newly graduated nurses go through a 'transition shock,' reducing their ability to use research findings in clinical work.</p

Nurse forecasting in Europe (RN4CAST): Rationale, design and methodology

Contains fulltext : 97171.pdf (postprint version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Current human resources planning models in nursing are unreliable and ineffective as they consider volumes, but ignore effects on quality in patient care. The project RN4CAST aims innovative forecasting methods by addressing not only volumes, but quality of nursing staff as well as quality of patient care. METHODS/DESIGN: A multi-country, multilevel cross-sectional design is used to obtain important unmeasured factors in forecasting models including how features of hospital work environments impact on nurse recruitment, retention and patient outcomes. In each of the 12 participating European countries, at least 30 general acute hospitals were sampled. Data are gathered via four data sources (nurse, patient and organizational surveys and via routinely collected hospital discharge data). All staff nurses of a random selection of medical and surgical units (at least 2 per hospital) were surveyed. The nurse survey has the purpose to measure the experiences of nurses on their job (e.g. job satisfaction, burnout) as well as to allow the creation of aggregated hospital level measures of staffing and working conditions. The patient survey is organized in a sub-sample of countries and hospitals using a one-day census approach to measure the patient experiences with medical and nursing care. In addition to conducting a patient survey, hospital discharge abstract datasets will be used to calculate additional patient outcomes like in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue. Via the organizational survey, information about the organizational profile (e.g. bed size, types of technology available, teaching status) is collected to control the analyses for institutional differences.This information will be linked via common identifiers and the relationships between different aspects of the nursing work environment and patient and nurse outcomes will be studied by using multilevel regression type analyses. These results will be used to simulate the impact of changing different aspects of the nursing work environment on quality of care and satisfaction of the nursing workforce. DISCUSSION: RN4CAST is one of the largest nurse workforce studies ever conducted in Europe, will add to accuracy of forecasting models and generate new approaches to more effective management of nursing resources in Europe

Magnetic resonance imaging of anterior cruciate ligament rupture

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is a useful diagnostic tool for the assessment of knee joint injury. Anterior cruciate ligament repair is a commonly performed orthopaedic procedure. This paper examines the concordance between MR imaging and arthroscopic findings. METHODS: Between February, 1996 and February, 1998, 48 patients who underwent magnetic resonance (MR) imaging of the knee were reported to have complete tears of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Of the 48 patients, 36 were male, and 12 female. The average age was 27 years (range: 15 to 45). Operative reconstruction using a patellar bone-tendon-bone autograft was arranged for each patient, and an arthroscopic examination was performed to confirm the diagnosis immediately prior to reconstructive surgery. RESULTS: In 16 of the 48 patients, reconstructive surgery was cancelled when incomplete lesions were noted during arthroscopy, making reconstructive surgery unnecessary. The remaining 32 patients were found to have complete tears of the ACL, and therefore underwent reconstructive surgery. Using arthroscopy as an independent, reliable reference standard for ACL tear diagnosis, the reliability of MR imaging was evaluated. The true positive rate for complete ACL tear diagnosis with MR imaging was 67%, making the possibility of a false-positive report of "complete ACL tear" inevitable with MR imaging. CONCLUSIONS: Since conservative treatment is sufficient for incomplete ACL tears, the decision to undertake ACL reconstruction should not be based on MR findings alone

Blood Interferon Signatures Putatively Link Lack of Protection Conferred by the RTS,S Recombinant Malaria Vaccine to an Antigen-specific IgE Response

Malaria remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Progress has been made in recent years with the development of vaccines that could pave the way towards protection of hundreds of millions of exposed individuals. Here we used a modular repertoire approach to re-analyze a publically available microarray blood transcriptome dataset monitoring the response to malaria vaccination. We report the seminal identification of interferon signatures in the blood of subjects on days 1, 3 and 14 following administration of the third dose of the RTS,S recombinant malaria vaccine. These signatures at day 1 correlate with protection, and at days 3 and 14 to susceptibility to subsequent challenge of study subjects with live parasites. In addition we putatively link the decreased abundance of interferon-inducible transcripts observed at days 3 and 14 post-vaccination with the elicitation of an antigen-specific IgE response in a subset of vaccine recipients that failed to be protected by the RTS,S vaccine. Furthermore, profiling of antigen-specific levels of IgE in a Mozambican cohort of malaria-exposed children vaccinated with RTS,S identified an association between elevated baseline IgE levels and subsequent development of naturally acquired malaria infection during follow up. Taken together these findings warrant further investigation of the role of antigen-specific IgE in conferring susceptibility to malaria infection