Supply chain disturbances and resilience strategies: a secondary data study

This research is funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (project MIT-Pt/EDAM-IASC/0033/2008 and project PTDC/EME-GIN/68400/2006). The principal author was supported by a PhD fellowship from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (SFRH/BD/43984/2008).This paper is a review over a variety of events which lead to disruption conditions in supply chains and identifies correspondent resilient strategies for each condition. The paper objective is to make a link between the problems created by events and strategies that managers can use to avoid or mitigate the negative aspects of those problems and improve post-event recovery. To attain the paper objectives, archived media news were used to collect empirical data about disturbances (events), their negative effects (problems), and resilience strategies. In the data collection phase, the aim was to keep diversities and be comprehensive. Using empirical evidences from the sample is developed a graph to show the links between supply chain disturbances, problems and resilience. This research provides supply chain managers with some alternative strategies to opt for the best available decision, improving the post-event management process.publishersversionpublishe

Influence of technological parameters of laser sintering on the formation mechanism and properties of super hard abrasive composites

Повідомляються результати моделювання досліджень по встановленню оптимальних технологічних параметрів спікання інструментальних композитів з НТМ з мінімально можливою щільністю потужності і максимально можливими швидкостями руху лазерного випромінювання щодо дослідного зразка. Визначено енергетичні параметри та умови лазерного опромінення інструментальних композитів, які не призводять до негативного термічному впливу на зерна КНБ. Показано вплив режимів лазерної обробки на геометрію і твердість сформованих абразивних шарів. Проведені металографічні дослідження отриманих зразків показали, що після лазерного спікання композити на основі заліза і нікелю мають високодисперсну структуру з твердістю 6000-10000 МПа. Твердість спечених композитів підвищується з збільшенням ступеня дисперсності їх структурних складових, зростанням частки більш твердої евтектики і твердості матриці.Research on optimal technological parameters for sintering of tool composites of intractable materials employing laser systems with lowest power density and highest laser beam travel speeds is presented in this paper. Energy parameters and conditions of laser irradiation of tool composites that reduce negative thermal influence on grains of cubic boron nitride were established. Influence of laser processing parameters on the shape and hardness of abrasive layers is shown. Highly dispersed structure with 6000 - 10000 MPa hardness is observed after laser processing of Iron an Nickel based composites. Hardness of sintered composites increases with the level of dispersion of its components, hardness of composite matrix and increase of hard eutectic ratio.Сообщаются результаты моделирования исследований по установлению оптимальных технологических параметров спекания инструментальных композитов с НТМ с минимально возможной плотностью мощности и максимально возможными скоростями движения лазерного излучения относительно исследовательского образца. Определены энергетические параметры и условия лазерного облучения инструментальных композитов, которые не приводят к негативному термическому воздействию на зерна КНБ. Показано влияние режимов лазерной обработки на геометрию и твердость сформированных абразивных слоев. Проведенные металлографические исследования полученных образцов показали, что после лазерного спекания композиты на основе железа и никеля имеют высокодисперсную структуру с твёрдостью 6000-10000 МПа. Твердость спеченных композитов повышается с увеличением степени дисперсности их структурных составляющих, ростом доли более твердой эвтектики и твердости матрицы

Oral manifestations of COVID-19 and its management in pediatric patients: a systematic review and practical guideline

Objectives: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory infection that has spread worldwide and is responsible for a high death toll. Although respiratory symptoms are the most common, there is growing evidence that oral signs of COVID-19 can also be seen in children. The purpose of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the available data on the oral manifestations of COVID-19 in children and to recommend appropriate methods of diagnosis and treatment. Methods: A systematic search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was done to discover relevant papers published between their establishment and January 2023. Articles detailing oral symptoms in pediatric patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection were included, and data on clinical characteristics, diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes were extracted and evaluated. Results: A total of 24 studies involving 2112 pediatric patients with COVID-19 were included in the review. The most common presentations are oral lesions, taste and smell disorders, oral candidiasis, hemorrhagic crust, tongue discoloration, lip and tongue fissuring, gingivitis, and salivary gland inflammation. These manifestations were sometimes associated with multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) or Kawasaki disease (KD). Management strategies varied depending on the severity of the oral manifestation and ranged from symptomatic relief with topical analgesics to systemic medications. Conclusion: Oral symptoms of COVID-19 are relatively prevalent in juvenile patients and can be accompanied by severe systemic diseases, such as MIS-C or Kawasaki illness. Early detection and adequate care of these oral symptoms are critical for the best patient results. Understanding the underlying pathophysiology and developing targeted treatments requires more investigation.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

ProTheRaMon : a GATE simulation framework for proton therapy range monitoring using PET imaging

Objective. This paper reports on the implementation and shows examples of the use of the ProTheRaMon framework for simulating the delivery of proton therapy treatment plans and range monitoring using positron emission tomography (PET). ProTheRaMon offers complete processing of proton therapy treatment plans, patient CT geometries, and intra-treatment PET imaging, taking into account therapy and imaging coordinate systems and activity decay during the PET imaging protocol specific to a given proton therapy facility. We present the ProTheRaMon framework and illustrate its potential use case and data processing steps for a patient treated at the Cyclotron Centre Bronowice (CCB) proton therapy center in Krakow, Poland. Approach. The ProTheRaMon framework is based on GATE Monte Carlo software, the CASToR reconstruction package and in-house developed Python and bash scripts. The framework consists of five separated simulation and data processing steps, that can be further optimized according to the user’s needs and specific settings of a given proton therapy facility and PET scanner design. Main results. ProTheRaMon is presented using example data from a patient treated at CCB and the J-PET scanner to demonstrate the application of the framework for proton therapy range monitoring. The output of each simulation and data processing stage is described and visualized. Significance. We demonstrate that the ProTheRaMon simulation platform is a high-performance tool, capable of running on a computational cluster and suitable for multi-parameter studies, with databases consisting of large number of patients, as well as different PET scanner geometries and settings for range monitoring in a clinical environment. Due to its modular structure, the ProTheRaMon framework can be adjusted for different proton therapy centers and/or different PET detector geometries. It is available to the community via github (Borys et al 2022)

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundThe global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.ResultsGlobally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.ConclusionsWhile road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950