Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (USMR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71.2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval WI] 68.3-74-0) in 2000 to 37.1 (33.2-41.7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28.0 deaths per 1000 live births (26.8-29-5) in 2000 to 17.9 (16.3-19-8) in 2019. In 2019,136 (67%) of 204 countries had a USMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030,154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9.65 million (95% UI 9.05-10.30) in 2000 and 5.05 million (4.27-6.02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3.76 million 95% UI 3.53-4.021) in 2000 to 48% (2.42 million; 2.06-2.86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0.80 (95% UI 0.71-0.86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1.44 (95% UI 1-27-1.58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1.87 million (95% UI 1-35-2.58; 37% 95% UI 32-43]) of 5.05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve USMR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

National recommendations: Psychosocial management of diabetes in India

Although several evidence-based guidelines for managing diabetes are available, few, if any, focus on the psychosocial aspects of this challenging condition. It is increasingly evident that psychosocial treatment is integral to a holistic approach of managing diabetes; it forms the key to realizing appropriate biomedical outcomes. Dearth of attention is as much due to lack of awareness as due to lack of guidelines. This lacuna results in diversity among the standards of clinical practice, which, in India, is also due to the size and complexity of psychosocial care itself. This article aims to highlight evidence- and experience-based Indian guidelines for the psychosocial management of diabetes. A systemic literature was conducted for peer-reviewed studies and publications covering psychosocial aspects in diabetes. Recommendations are classified into three domains: General, psychological and social, and graded by the weight they should have in clinical practice and by the degree of support from the literature. Ninety-four recommendations of varying strength are made to help professionals identify the psychosocial interventions needed to support patients and their families and explore their role in devising support strategies. They also aid in developing core skills needed for effective diabetes management. These recommendations provide practical guidelines to fulfill unmet needs in diabetes management, and help achieve a qualitative improvement in the way physicians manage patients. The guidelines, while maintaining an India-specific character, have global relevance, which is bound to grow as the diabetes pandemic throws up new challenges

The Indian Council of Medical Research–India Diabetes (ICMR–INDIAB) Study: Methodological Details

Background: Currently available estimates of diabetes prevalence in India are based on published data derived from very few studies. The Indian Council of Medical Research-India Diabetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study is a communitybased survey conceived with the aim of obtaining the prevalence rates of diabetes in India as a whole, covering all 28 states, the National Capital Territory of Delhi, and two of the union territories in the mainland of India, with a total sample size of 124,000 individuals. Methods: A stratified multistage sampling design has been used. In all study subjects, a structured questionnaire was administered and anthropometric parameters and blood pressure were measured. Fasting capillary blood glucose was first determined using a glucose meter. An oral glucose load was then administered to all subjects except those with self-reported diabetes, and the 2 h post-load capillary blood glucose was estimated. In every fifth subject, a fasting venous sample was collected for measurement of lipids and creatinine, a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram was performed, and dietary assessment questionnaire was administered. In all diabetic subjects, an additional diabetes questionnaire was used and a fasting venous sample drawn for glycated hemoglobin. Conclusions: The ICMR-INDIAB study is the first of its kind attempting to provide accurate and comprehensive state- and national-level data on diabetes prevalence in India

Knowledge and awareness of diabetes in urban and rural India: The Indian Council of Medical Research India Diabetes Study (Phase I): Indian Council of Medical Research India Diabetes 4

Background: Representative data on knowledge and awareness about diabetes is scarce in India and is extremely important to plan public health policies aimed at preventing and controlling diabetes. Aim: The aim of the following study is to assess awareness and knowledge about diabetes in the general population, as well as in individuals with diabetes in four selected regions of India. Materials and Methods: The study subjects were drawn from a representative sample of four geographical regions of India, Chandigarh, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand and Maharashtra representing North, South, East and West and covering a population of 213 million. A total of 16,607 individuals (5112 urban and 11,495 rural) aged ≥20 years were selected from 188 urban and 175 rural areas. Awareness of diabetes and knowledge of causative factors and complications of diabetes were assessed using an interviewer administered structured questionnaire in 14,274 individuals (response rate, 86.0%), which included 480 self-reported diabetic subjects. Results: Only 43.2% (6160/14,274) of the overall study population had heard about a condition called diabetes. Overall urban residents had higher awareness rates (58.4%) compared to rural residents (36.8%) (P < 0.001). About 46.7% of males and 39.6% of females reported that they knew about a condition called diabetes (P < 0.001). Of the general population, 41.5% (5726/13,794) knew about a condition called diabetes. Among them, 80.7% (4620/5726) knew that the prevalence of diabetes was increasing, whereas among diabetic subjects, it was 93.0% (448/480). Among the general and diabetic population, 56.3% and 63.4% respectively, were aware that diabetes could be prevented. Regarding complications, 51.5% of the general population and 72.7% diabetic population knew that diabetes could affect other organs. Based on a composite knowledge score to assess knowledge among the general population, Tamil Nadu had the highest (31.7) and Jharkhand the lowest score (16.3). However among self-reported diabetic subjects, Maharashtra had the highest (70.1) and Tamil Nadu, the lowest score (56.5). Conclusion: Knowledge and awareness about diabetes in India, particularly in rural areas, is poor. This underscores the need for conducting large scale diabetes awareness and education programs

Forum for Injection Technique (FIT), India: The Indian recommendations 2.0, for best practice in Insulin Injection Technique, 2015

As injectable therapies such as human insulin, insulin analogs, and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists are used to manage diabetes, correct injection technique is vital for the achievement of glycemic control. The forum for injection technique India acknowledged this need for the first time in India and worked to develop evidence-based recommendations on insulin injection technique, to assist healthcare practitioners in their clinical practice

Prevalence of generalized & abdominal obesity in urban & rural India- the ICMR - INDIAB Study (Phase-I) [ICMR - INDIAB-3]

Background & objectives: Overweight and obesity are rapidly increasing in countries like India. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of generalized, abdominal and combined obesity in urban and rural India. Methods: Phase I of the ICMR-INDIAB study was conducted in a representative population of three s0 tates [Tamil Nadu (TN), Maharashtra (MH) and Jharkhand (JH)] and one Union Territory (UT)[Chandigarh (CH)] of India. A stratified multi-stage sampling design was adopted and individuals ≥20 yr of age were included. WHO Asia Pacific guidelines were used to define overweight [body mass index (BMI) ≥23 kg/m [2] but <25 kg/m [2]], generalized obesity (GO, BMI≥25kg/m [2] , abdominal obesity (AO, waist circumference ≥90 cm for men and ≥80cm for women) and combined obesity (CO, GO plus AO). Of the 14,277 participants, 13,800 subjects (response rate, 96.7%) were included for the analysis (urban: n=4,063; rural: n=9737). Results: The prevalence of GO was 24.6, 16.6, 11.8 and 31.3 per cent among residents of TN, MH, JH and CH, while the prevalence of AO was 26.6, 18.7, 16.9 and 36.1 per cent, respectively. CO was present in 19.3, 13.0, 9.8 and 26.6 per cent of the TN, MH, JH and CH population. The prevalence of GO, AO and CO were significantly higher among urban residents compared to rural residents in all the four regions studied. The prevalence of overweight was 15.2, 11.3, 7.8 and 15.9 per cent among residents of TN, MH, JH and CH, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that female gender, hypertension, diabetes, higher socio-economic status, physical inactivity and urban residence were significantly associated with GO, AO and CO in all the four regions studied. Age was significantly associated with AO and CO, but not with GO. Interpretation & conclusions: Prevalence of AO as well as of GO were high in India. Extrapolated to the whole country, 135, 153 and 107 million individuals will have GO, AO and CO, respectively. However, these figures have been estimated from three States and one UT of India and the results may be viewed in this light

Prevalence of dyslipidemia in urban and rural India: the ICMR-INDIAB study.

AIM: To study the pattern and prevalence of dyslipidemia in a large representative sample of four selected regions in India. METHODS: Phase I of the Indian Council of Medical Research-India Diabetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study was conducted in a representative population of three states of India [Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Jharkhand] and one Union Territory [Chandigarh], and covered a population of 213 million people using stratified multistage sampling design to recruit individuals ≥20 years of age. All the study subjects (n = 16,607) underwent anthropometric measurements and oral glucose tolerance tests were done using capillary blood (except in self-reported diabetes). In addition, in every 5th subject (n = 2042), a fasting venous sample was collected and assayed for lipids. Dyslipidemia was diagnosed using National Cholesterol Education Programme (NCEP) guidelines. RESULTS: Of the subjects studied, 13.9% had hypercholesterolemia, 29.5% had hypertriglyceridemia, 72.3% had low HDL-C, 11.8% had high LDL-C levels and 79% had abnormalities in one of the lipid parameters. Regional disparity exists with the highest rates of hypercholesterolemia observed in Tamilnadu (18.3%), highest rates of hypertriglyceridemia in Chandigarh (38.6%), highest rates of low HDL-C in Jharkhand (76.8%) and highest rates of high LDL-C in Tamilnadu (15.8%). Except for low HDL-C and in the state of Maharashtra, in all other states, urban residents had the highest prevalence of lipid abnormalities compared to rural residents. Low HDL-C was the most common lipid abnormality (72.3%) in all the four regions studied; in 44.9% of subjects, it was present as an isolated abnormality. Common significant risk factors for dyslipidemia included obesity, diabetes, and dysglycemia. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of dyslipidemia is very high in India, which calls for urgent lifestyle intervention strategies to prevent and manage this important cardiovascular risk factor