Use of Individual-Level Covariates to Improve Latent Class Analysis of Trypanosoma Cruzi Diagnostic Tests

Statistical methods such as latent class analysis can estimate the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests when no perfect reference test exists. Traditional latent class methods assume a constant disease prevalence in one or more tested populations. When the risk of disease varies in a known way, these models fail to take advantage of additional information that can be obtained by measuring risk factors at the level of the individual. We show that by incorporating complex field-based epidemiologic data, in which the disease prevalence varies as a continuous function of individual-level covariates, our model produces more accurate sensitivity and specificity estimates than previous methods. We apply this technique to several simulated populations and to actual Chagas disease test data from a community near Arequipa, Peru. Results from our model estimate that the first-line enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay has a sensitivity of 78% (95% CI: 62-100%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 99-100%). The confirmatory immunofluorescence assay is estimated to be 73% sensitive (95% CI: 65-81%) and 99% specific (95% CI: 96-100%)

A History of Chagas Disease Transmission, Control, and Re-Emergence in Peri-Rural La Joya, Peru

The historically rural problem of Chagas disease is increasing in urban areas in Latin America. Peri-rural development may play a critical role in the urbanization of Chagas disease and other parasitic infections. We conducted a cross-sectional study in an urbanizing rural area in southern Peru, and we encountered a complex history of Chagas disease in this peri-rural environment. Specifically, we discovered: (1) long-standing parasite transmission leading to substantial burden of infection; (2) interruption in parasite transmission resulting from an undocumented insecticide application campaign; (3) relatively rapid re-emergence of parasite-infected vector insects resulting from an unsustained control campaign; (4) extensive migration among peri-rural inhabitants. Long-standing parasite infection in peri-rural areas with highly mobile populations provides a plausible mechanism for the expansion of parasite transmission to nearby urban centers. Lack of commitment to control campaigns in peri-rural areas may have unforeseen and undesired consequences for nearby urban centers. Novel methods and perspectives are needed to address the complexities of human migration and erratic interventions

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Elucidating the Mechanism of Trypanosoma cruzi Acquisition by Triatomine Insects: Evidence from a Large Field Survey of Triatoma infestans

Blood-sucking triatomine bugs transmit the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease. We measured the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in 58,519 Triatoma infestans captured in residences in and near Arequipa, Peru. Among bugs from infected colonies, T. cruzi prevalence increased with stage from 12% in second instars to 36% in adults. Regression models demonstrated that the probability of parasite acquisition was roughly the same for each developmental stage. Prevalence increased by 5.9% with each additional stage. We postulate that the probability of acquiring the parasite may be related to the number of feeding events. Transmission of the parasite does not appear to be correlated with the amount of blood ingested during feeding. Similarly, other hypothesized transmission routes such as coprophagy fail to explain the observed pattern of prevalence. Our results could have implications for the feasibility of late-acting control strategies that preferentially kill older insects

Occupational chemical exposures: a collaboration between the Georgia Poison Center and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration

<p><b>Context:</b> In the United States, regional poison centers frequently receive calls about toxic workplace exposures. Most poison centers do not share call details routinely with governmental regulatory agencies. Worker health and safety could be enhanced if regulators such as the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had the ability to investigate these events and prevent similar incidents. With this goal in mind, the Georgia Poison Center (GPC) began referring occupational exposures to OSHA in July 2014.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> GPC began collecting additional employer details when handling occupational exposure calls. When workers granted permission, GPC forwarded call details to the OSHA Regional Office in Atlanta. These referrals enabled OSHA to initiate several investigations. We also analyzed all occupational exposures reported to GPC during the study period to characterize the events, detect violations of OSHA reporting requirements, and identify hazardous scenarios that could form the basis for future OSHA rulemaking or guidance.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> GPC was informed about 953 occupational exposures between 1 July, 2014 and 7 January, 2016. Workers were exposed to 217 unique substances, and 70.3% of victims received treatment in a healthcare facility. Hydrogen sulfide was responsible for the largest number of severe clinical effects. GPC obtained permission to refer 89 (9.3%) calls to OSHA. As a result of these referrals, OSHA conducted 39 investigations and cited 15 employers for “serious” violations. OSHA forwarded several other referrals to other regulatory agencies when OSHA did not have jurisdiction. At least one employer failed to comply with OSHA’s new rule that mandates reporting of all work-related hospitalizations. This collaboration increased OSHA’s awareness of dangerous job tasks including hydrofluoric acid exposure among auto detailers and carbon monoxide poisoning with indoor use of gasoline-powered tools.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Collaboration with the GPC generated a useful source of referrals to OSHA. OSHA investigations led to abatement of existing hazards, and OSHA acquired new knowledge of occupational exposure scenarios.</p