Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of “moderate” and “extreme” El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST

Contrasting trends of mass and optical properties of aerosols over the Northern Hemisphere from 1992 to 2011

Atmospheric aerosols affect both human health and climate. PMX is the mass concentration of aerosol particles that have aerodynamic diameters less than X μm, PM<sub>10</sub> was initially selected to measure the environmental impact of aerosols. Recently, it was realized that fine particles are more hazardous than larger ones and should be measured. Consequently, observational data for PM<sub>2.5</sub> have been obtained but only for a much shorter period than that of PM<sub>10</sub>. Optical extinction of aerosols, the inverse of meteorological visibility, is sensitive to particles less than 1.0 μm. These fine particles only account for a small part of total mass of aerosols although they are very efficient in light extinction. Comparisons are made between PM<sub>10</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over the period when the latter is available and with visibility data for a longer period. PM<sub>10</sub> has decreased by 44% in Europe from 1992 to 2009, 33% in the US from 1993 to 2010, 10% in Canada from 1994 to 2009, and 26% in China from 2000 to 2011. However, in contrast, aerosol optical extinction has increased 7% in the US, 10% in Canada, and 18% in China during the above study periods. The reduction of optical extinction over Europe of 5% is also much less than the 44% reduction in PM<sub>10</sub>. Over its short period of record PM<sub>2.5</sub> decreased less than PM<sub>10</sub>. Hence, PM<sub>10</sub> is neither a good measure of changes in smaller particles nor of their long-term trends, a result that has important implications for both climate impact and human health effects. The increased fraction of anthropogenic aerosol emission, such as from vehicle exhaust, to total atmospheric aerosols partly explains this contrasting trend of optical and mass properties of aerosols

Considering long-memory when testing for changepoints in surface temperature:a classification approach based on the time-varying spectrum

Changepoint models are increasingly used to represent changes in the rate of warming in surface temperature records. On the opposite hand, a large body of literature has suggested long‐memory processes to characterize long‐term behavior in surface temperatures. While these two model representations provide different insights into the underlying mechanisms, they share similar spectrum properties that create “ambiguity” and challenge distinguishing between the two classes of models. This study aims to compare the two representations to explain temporal changes and variability in surface temperatures. To address this question, we extend a recently developed time‐varying spectral procedure and assess its accuracy through a synthetic series mimicking observed global monthly surface temperatures. We vary the length of the synthetic series to determine the number of observations needed to be able to accurately distinguish between changepoints and long‐memory models. We apply the approach to two gridded surface temperature data sets. Our findings unveil regions in the oceans where long‐memory is prevalent. These results imply that the presence of long‐memory in monthly sea surface temperatures may impact the significance of trends, and special attention should be given to the choice of model representing memory (short versus long) when assessing long‐term changes

Poleward energy transport: is the standard definition physically relevant at all time scales?

Poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and oceans constitutes an important branch of the global energy budget, and its role in the climate system has been the subject of many studies. In the atmosphere, the transport is affected by “eddies” and large scale meridional cells, both with zero net mass transport across latitude circles, but also partly by processes associated with a net transport of mass across latitude circles. The latter must cease to operate in steady state, but they may be significant when time variability of the heat budget is considered. Indeed, examination of reanalysis data on short (daily to monthly) timescales shows that mass variations on these timescales result in surprisingly large fluctuations (in excess of 10^15 W = 1 PW) in the poleward heat transport. These fluctuations are referred to as “extensive”, for they primarily alter the mass integrated energy of the region considered, but not its averaged value. It is suggested that extensive fluctuations mask more meaningful climate signals present in the heat transport variability on monthly and interannual timescales, and a new formulation is proposed to isolate the latter. This new formulation is applied successfully to reanalysis data and climate model simulations

A Tropospheric Assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 Global Reanalyses in the Polar Regions

The reliability of the global reanalyses in the polar regions is investigated. The overview stems from an April 2006 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) workshop on the performance of global reanalyses in high latitudes held at the British Antarctic Survey. Overall, the skill is much higher in the Arctic than the Antarctic, where the reanalyses are only reliable in the summer months prior to the modern satellite era. In the Antarctic, large circulation differences between the reanalyses are found primarily before 1979, when vast quantities of satellite sounding data started to be assimilated. Specifically for ERA-40, this data discontinuity creates a marked jump in Antarctic snow accumulation, especially at high elevations. In the Arctic, the largest differences are related to the reanalyses depiction of clouds and their associated radiation impacts; ERA-40 captures the cloud variability much better than NCEP1 and JRA-25, but the ERA-40 and JRA-25 clouds are too optically thin for shortwave radiation. To further contrast the reanalyses skill, cyclone tracking results are presented. In the Southern Hemisphere, cyclonic activity is markedly different between the reanalyses, where there are few matched cyclones prior to 1979. In comparison, only some of the weaker cyclones are not matched in the Northern Hemisphere from 1958-2001, again indicating the superior skill in this hemisphere. Although this manuscript focuses on deficiencies in the reanalyses, it is important to note that they are a powerful tool for climate studies in both polar regions when used with a recognition of their limitations

Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Niña-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global ocean–sea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability

Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970–2005 and 1992–2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95 % confidence interval of the median. The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54–0.82]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.42 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance over the historical period. We suggest that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation, especially for forced changes (decadal timescales)