SPARC Data Initiative: climatology uncertainty assessment

The SPARC Data Initiative aims to produce trace gas climatologies for a number of species from a number of instruments. In order to properly compare these climatologies, and interpret differences between them, it is necessary to know the uncertainty in each calculated climatological mean field. The inhomogeneous and finite temporal-spatial sampling pattern of each instrument can lead to biases and uncertainties in the mean climatologies. Sampling which is unevenly weighted in time and space leads to biases between a data set's climatology and the truth. Furthermore, the systematic sampling patterns of some instruments may mean that uncertainties in mean fields calculated through traditional methods that assume random sampling may be inappropriate. We aim to address these issues through an exercise wherein high resolution chemical fields from a coupled Chemistry Climate Model are sub-sampled based on the sampling pattern of each instrument. Climatologies based on the sub-sampled data can be compared to those calculated with the full data set, in order to assess sampling biases. Furthermore, investigating the ensemble variability of climatologies based on subsampled fields will allow us to assess the proper methodology for estimating the uncertainty in climatological mean fields

The impact of volcanic aerosol on the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex: mechanisms and sensitivity to forcing structure

Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space–time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing

Stratosphere troposphere coupling: the influence of volcanic eruptions

Stratospheric sulfate aerosols produced by major volcanic eruptions modify the radiative and dynamical properties of the troposphere and stratosphere through their reflection of solar radiation and absorption of infrared radiation. At the Earth's surface, the primary consequence of a large eruption is cooling, however, it has long been known that major tropical eruptions tend to be followed by warmer than usual winters over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents. This volcanic "winter-warming" effect in the NH is understood to be the result of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns resulting from heating in the stratosphere, and is often described as positive anomalies of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) that propagate downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. In the southern hemisphere, climate models tend to also predict a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) response to volcanic eruptions, but this is generally inconsistent with post-eruption observations during the 20th century. We review present understanding of the influence of volcanic eruptions on the large scale modes of atmospheric variability in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Using models of varying complexity, including an aerosol-climate model, an Earth system model, and CMIP5 simulations, we assess the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed post-eruption climatic and dynamical anomalies. We will also address the parametrization of volcanic eruptions in simulations of the past climate, and identify possibilities for improvemen

Review of the formulation of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) through process-oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal-2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry-climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere-stratosphere chemistry, and non-orographic gravity-wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere

Stratospheric aerosol - Observations, processes, and impact on climate

Interest in stratospheric aerosol and its role in climate have increased over the last decade due to the observed increase in stratospheric aerosol since 2000 and the potential for changes in the sulfur cycle induced by climate change. This review provides an overview about the advances in stratospheric aerosol research since the last comprehensive assessment of stratospheric aerosol was published in 2006. A crucial development since 2006 is the substantial improvement in the agreement between in situ and space-based inferences of stratospheric aerosol properties during volcanically quiescent periods. Furthermore, new measurement systems and techniques, both in situ and space based, have been developed for measuring physical aerosol properties with greater accuracy and for characterizing aerosol composition. However, these changes induce challenges to constructing a long-term stratospheric aerosol climatology. Currently, changes in stratospheric aerosol levels less than 20% cannot be confidently quantified. The volcanic signals tend to mask any nonvolcanically driven change, making them difficult to understand. While the role of carbonyl sulfide as a substantial and relatively constant source of stratospheric sulfur has been confirmed by new observations and model simulations, large uncertainties remain with respect to the contribution from anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. New evidence has been provided that stratospheric aerosol can also contain small amounts of nonsulfate matter such as black carbon and organics. Chemistry-climate models have substantially increased in quantity and sophistication. In many models the implementation of stratospheric aerosol processes is coupled to radiation and/or stratospheric chemistry modules to account for relevant feedback processes