Cost-effectiveness of a lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals for diabetes in a low- and middle-income setting:Trial-based analysis of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program

BACKGROUND: Data on the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle-based diabetes prevention programs are mostly from high-income countries, which cannot be extrapolated to low- and middle-income countries. We performed a trial-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a lifestyle intervention targeted at preventing diabetes in India. METHODS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial of 1007 individuals conducted in 60 polling areas (electoral divisions) in Kerala state. Participants (30-60 years) were those with a high diabetes risk score and without diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test. The intervention group received a 12-month peer-support lifestyle intervention involving 15 group sessions delivered in community settings by trained lay peer leaders. There were also linked community activities to sustain behavior change. The control group received a booklet on lifestyle change. Costs were estimated from the health system and societal perspectives, with 2018 as the reference year. Effectiveness was measured in terms of the number of diabetes cases prevented and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Three times India's gross domestic product per capita (US$6108) was used as the cost-effectiveness threshold. The analyses were conducted with a 2-year time horizon. Costs and effects were discounted at 3$2.0 (intervention group: US$303.6; control group: US$301.6), incremental societal cost of US$6.2 (intervention group: US$367.8; control group: US$361.5), absolute risk reduction of 2.1$95.2, and the cost per QALY gained was US$50.0. From a societal perspective, the corresponding figures were US$295.1 and US$155.0. For the number of diabetes cases prevented, the probability for the intervention to be cost-effective was 84.0% and 83.1% from the health system and societal perspectives, respectively. The corresponding figures for QALY gained were 99.1% and 97.8%. The results were robust to discounting and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A community-based peer-support lifestyle intervention was cost-effective in individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in India over 2 years. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ( ACTRN12611000262909 ). Registered 10 March 2011

The long-term effects of Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program on diabetes incidence and cardiometabolic risk:a study protocol

Introduction: India currently has more than 74.2 million people with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). This is predicted to increase to 124.9 million by 2045. In combination with controlling blood glucose levels among those with T2DM, preventing the onset of diabetes among those at high risk of developing it is essential. Although many diabetes prevention interventions have been implemented in resource-limited settings in recent years, there is limited evidence about their long-term effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability. Moreover, evidence on the impact of a diabetes prevention program on cardiovascular risk over time is limited. Objectives: The overall aim of this study is to evaluate the long-term cardiometabolic effects of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program (K-DPP). Specific aims are 1) to measure the long-term effectiveness of K-DPP on diabetes incidence and cardiometabolic risk after nine years from participant recruitment; 2) to assess retinal microvasculature, microalbuminuria, and ECG abnormalities and their association with cardiometabolic risk factors over nine years of the intervention; 3) to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness and return on investment of the K-DPP; and 4) to assess the sustainability of community engagement, peer-support, and other related community activities after nine years. Methods: The nine-year follow-up study aims to reach all 1007 study participants (500 intervention and 507 control) from 60 randomized polling areas recruited to the original trial. Data are being collected in two phases. In phase 1 (Survey), we are admintsering a structured questionnaire, undertake physical measurements, and collect blood and urine samples for biochemical analysis. In phase II, we are inviting participants to undergo retinal imaging, body composition measurements, and ECG. All data collection is being conducted by trained Nurses. The primary outcome is the incidence of T2DM. Secondary outcomes include behavioral, psychosocial, clinical, biochemical, and retinal vasculature measures. Data analysis strategies include a comparison of outcome indicators with baseline, and follow-up measurements conducted at 12 and 24 months. Analysis of the long-term cost-effectiveness of the intervention is planned. Discussion: Findings from this follow-up study will contribute to improved policy and practice regarding the long-term effects of lifestyle interventions for diabetes prevention in India and other resource-limited settings. Trial registration: Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry–(updated from the original trial)ACTRN12611000262909; India: CTRI/2021/10/037191.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

A peer-support lifestyle intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes in India: A cluster-randomized controlled trial of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program.

BACKGROUND: The major efficacy trials on diabetes prevention have used resource-intensive approaches to identify high-risk individuals and deliver lifestyle interventions. Such strategies are not feasible for wider implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a peer-support lifestyle intervention in preventing type 2 diabetes among high-risk individuals identified on the basis of a simple diabetes risk score. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in 60 polling areas (clusters) of Neyyattinkara taluk (subdistrict) in Trivandrum district, Kerala state, India. Participants (age 30-60 years) were those with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) ≥60 and were free of diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). A total of 1,007 participants (47.2% female) were enrolled (507 in the control group and 500 in the intervention group). Participants from intervention clusters participated in a 12-month community-based peer-support program comprising 15 group sessions (12 of which were led by trained lay peer leaders) and a range of community activities to support lifestyle change. Participants from control clusters received an education booklet with lifestyle change advice. The primary outcome was the incidence of diabetes at 24 months, diagnosed by an annual OGTT. Secondary outcomes were behavioral, clinical, and biochemical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A total of 964 (95.7%) participants were followed up at 24 months. Baseline characteristics of clusters and participants were similar between the study groups. After a median follow-up of 24 months, diabetes developed in 17.1% (79/463) of control participants and 14.9% (68/456) of intervention participants (relative risk [RR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.16, p = 0.36). At 24 months, compared with the control group, intervention participants had a greater reduction in IDRS score (mean difference: -1.50 points, p = 0.022) and alcohol use (RR 0.77, p = 0.018) and a greater increase in fruit and vegetable intake (≥5 servings/day) (RR 1.83, p = 0.008) and physical functioning score of the HRQoL scale (mean difference: 3.9 score, p = 0.016). The cost of delivering the peer-support intervention was US$22.5 per participant. There were no adverse events related to the intervention. We did not adjust for multiple comparisons, which may have increased the overall type I error rate. CONCLUSIONS: A low-cost community-based peer-support lifestyle intervention resulted in a nonsignificant reduction in diabetes incidence in this high-risk population at 24 months. However, there were significant improvements in some cardiovascular risk factors and physical functioning score of the HRQoL scale. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000262909

Effectiveness of a scalable group-based education and monitoring program, delivered by health workers, to improve control of hypertension in rural India: A cluster randomised controlled trial

New methods are required to manage hypertension in resource-poor settings. We hypothesised that a community health worker (CHW)-led group-based education and monitoring intervention would improve control of blood pressure (BP). We conducted a baseline community-based survey followed by a cluster randomised controlled trial of people with hypertension in 3 rural regions of South India, each at differing stages of epidemiological transition. Participants with hypertension, defined as BP ≥ 140/90 mm Hg or taking antihypertensive medication, were advised to visit a doctor. In each region, villages were randomly assigned to intervention or usual care (UC) in a 1:2 ratio. In intervention clusters, trained CHWs delivered a group-based intervention to people with hypertension. The program, conducted fortnightly for 3 months, included monitoring of BP, education about hypertension, and support for healthy lifestyle change. Outcomes were assessed approximately 2 months after completion of the intervention. The primary outcome was control of BP (BP < 140/90 mm Hg), analysed using mixed effects regression, clustered by village within region and adjusted for baseline control of hypertension (using intention-to-treat principles). Of 2,382 potentially eligible people, 637 from 5 intervention clusters and 1,097 from 10 UC clusters were recruited between November 2015 and April 2016, with follow-up occurring in 459 in the intervention group and 1,012 in UC. Mean age was 56.9 years (SD 13.7). Baseline BP was similar between groups. Control of BP improved from baseline to follow-up more in the intervention group (from 227 [49.5%] to 320 [69.7%] individuals) than in the UC group (from 528 [52.2%] to 624 [61.7%] individuals) (odds ratio [OR] 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.1; P = 0.001). In secondary outcome analyses, there was a greater decline in systolic BP in the intervention than UC group (-5.0 mm Hg, 95% CI -7.1 to -3.0; P < 0.001) and a greater decline in diastolic BP (-2.1 mm Hg, 95% CI -3.6 to -0.6; P < 0.006), but no detectable difference in the use of BP-lowering medications between groups (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-1.9; P = 0.34). Similar results were found when using imputation analyses that included those lost to follow-up. Limitations include a relatively short follow-up period and use of outcome assessors who were not blinded to the group allocation. While the durability of the effect is uncertain, this trial provides evidence that a low-cost program using CHWs to deliver an education and monitoring intervention is effective in controlling BP and is potentially scalable in resource-poor settings globally. The trial was registered with the Clinical Trials Registry-India (CTRI/2016/02/006678)

Prevalence of normal weight obesity and its associated cardio-metabolic risk factors - Results from the baseline data of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program (KDPP)

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic disorders are frequently observed among those who have obesity as measured by body mass index (BMI). However, there is limited data available on the cardiometabolic profile of those who are non-obese by BMI but with a high body fat percentage (BFP), a phenotype frequently observed in the Indian population. We examined the prevalence of individuals with normal weight obesity (NWO) and the cardiometabolic profile of NWO individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes(T2D) in a south Asian population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program, individuals aged between 30 to 60 years were screened using the Indian Diabetes Risk Score(IDRS) in 60 rural communities in the Indian state of Kerala. We used data from the baseline survey of this trial for this analysis which included 1147 eligible high diabetes risk individuals(IDRS >60). NWO was defined as BMI within the normal range and a high BFP (as per Asia-pacific ethnicity based cut-off); Non-obese (NO) as normal BMI and BFP and overtly obese (OB) as BMI ≥25 kg/m2 irrespective of the BFP. Data on demographic, clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires and protocols. Body fat percentage was assessed using TANITA body composition analyser (model SC330), based on bioelectrical impedance. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 47.3 ± 7.5 years and 46% were women. The proportion with NWO was 32% (n = 364; 95% CI: 29.1 to 34.5%), NO was 17% (n = 200) and OB was 51% (n = 583). Among those with NWO, 19.7% had T2D, compared to 18.7% of those who were OB (p value = 0.45) and 8% with NO (p value = 0.003). Among those with NWO, mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 129 ± 20; 78 ± 12 mmHg, compared to 127 ± 17; 78±11 mmHg among those with OB (p value = 0.12;0.94) and 120 ± 16; 71±10 mmHg among with NO (p value<0.001; 0.001), respectively. A similar pattern of association was observed for LDL cholesterol and triglycerides. After adjusting for other risk factors, the odds of having diabetes (OR:2.72[95% CI:1.46-5.08]) and dyslipidemia (2.37[1.55-3.64]) was significantly more in individuals with NWO as compared to non-obese individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Almost one-third of this South Asian population, at high risk for T2D, had normal weight obesity. The significantly higher cardiometabolic risk associated with increased adiposity even in lower BMI individuals has important implications for recognition in clinical practice

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, 1990-2019 : An analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. Interpretation Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes

Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, 1990-2019 : an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2.5 originating from ambient and household air pollution.Methods We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure-response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2.5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2.5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals.Findings In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2.5 exposure, with an estimated 3.78 (95% uncertainty interval 2.68-4.83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117-223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13.4% (9.49-17.5) of deaths and 13.6% (9.73-17.9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2.5, and 6.50% (4.22-9.53) of deaths and 5.92% (3.81-8.64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2.5.Interpretation Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2.5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries

Analyses of the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017 reveal inequalities across countries as well as within populations. Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health(1-3). As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting(4-6). The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness(7,8); however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health(9-11). Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries(12-14). By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.Peer reviewe

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations