Improvement of the WATBAL model for till soil hydrology with application to heavy metal transport

In environmental research, the movement, accumulation and dissolving of pollutants are often of great interest. An important field of investigation is, for instance, the transport of heavy metals - such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and mercury (Hg) - through the soil. To understand the behaviour and estimate the quantity of those substances in certain subterranean parts, the chemical concentrations as well as hydrological fluxes need to be known. Unfortunately, at this point modern science approaches its limits. It is complicated to accomplish accurate and reliable measurements of hydrological fluxes at a small scale, i.e. percolating soil water. This problem can be solved by applying a soil hydrological model. WATBAL is such a soil water balance model that can help to estimate the monthly soil water flux values within the rooting zone. The model was developed by Mike Starr (University Helsinki, Finland), but was not adequately tested and verified in the past, especially not applied to Swedish till soils. In this study, the WATBAL model was intensely examined and slightly improved by changing a few parameters. It was applied to several Swedish sites to investigate its grade of accuracy and plausibility. The results showed that WATBAL is definitely a reasonable soil water model. The numerical statistical analysis resulted in a moderate grade of accuracy with R2 values between 0.13 and 0.58 combined with MAPE values from 0.02 to 0.21. However, the graphical analysis of the model results revealed a good model fit, so that WATBAL in general is rated as acceptable. The overall average percentage error was estimated as 8.91% ± 1.08% (95% confidence interval). Furthermore, the obtained results from the WATBAL simulations were used to investigate the heavy metal transport within the soil. With available chemical data and the calculated small scale water fluxes, the mass balance of cadmium, lead, mercury, zinc and copper could be estimated. Even though chemical values were rather incomplete, results were obtained and showed that between 68.37% (cadmium, Kindla) and 97.28% (copper, Kindla) of the incoming heavy metals remained in the soil. Litterfall, throughfall and corresponding absolute accumulation values were much higher in Kindla than in Gammtratten. Besides, a seasonal dependency of monthly absolute accumulation was detected, with much greater values for April to October than for November to March. Based on long-term considerations, the amount of accumulated heavy metals spread over the whole catchment can add up to several kilograms

A qualidade dos laudos periciais contábeis quanto a sua estrutura frente à Norma Brasileira de Contabilidade - NBC TP 01/2015 - Norma de Perícia Contábil

The accounting expert's report, when it becomes necessary, becomes a fundamental element for the resolution of conflicts involving patrimonial aspects in the scope of the state or arbitral justice, and can only be elaborated by professional qualified accountant. Its function is to clarify the magistrate or arbitral judge on some demand for these assumptions or the parties, in the course of the process. In this sense, the accounting expert's report must comply with certain requirements contained in the Brazilian Accounting Standard - NBC TP 01/2015 - Accounting Skills. Punctually this research was dedicated to verifying that the accounting expert reports, collected from professionals who act as experts of the judgment in the Forum Benjamin Colucci and in the Forum of the Justice of the Work, both located in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, are in agreement with the NBC TP 01/2015 regarding its structure. Ten accounting expert reports were assembled in all, nine of which were civil, and one was labor. Thus the research is characterized as objectives, as exploratory as it intends to clarify more about the subject, bibliographical as regards the theoretical, documentary foundation regarding the materials harvested for analysis and quantitative in the analysis of the results. At the end of the survey, it was concluded that the accounting expert reports comply with the items of the structure issued by NBC TP 01/2015, at 81%.O laudo pericial contábil, quando se faz necessário, torna-se uma peça de fundamental importância para a solução de conflitos envolvendo aspectos patrimoniais no âmbito da justiça estatal ou arbitral, e somente pode ser elaborado por profissional contador habilitado. Tem como função esclarecer o magistrado ou juiz arbitral sobre alguma demanda por estes aventadas ou pelas partes, no decorrer do processo. Nesse sentido, o laudo pericial contábil deve cumprir com algumas exigências contidas na Norma Brasileira de Contabilidade - NBC TP 01/2015 – Perícia Contábil. Pontualmente esta pesquisa se dedicou a verificar se os laudos periciais contábeis, colhidos junto a profissionais que atuam como peritos do juízo no Fórum Benjamin Colucci e no Fórum da Justiça do Trabalho, ambos localizados em Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, estão de acordo com a NBC TP 01/2015 quanto a sua estrutura. Foram ajuntados dez laudos periciais contábeis ao todo, sendo cinco cíveis e cinco trabalhistas. Assim a pesquisa se caracteriza quanto aos objetivos, como exploratória já que pretende esclarecer mais sobre o assunto, bibliográfica no que tange a fundamentação teórica, documental a respeito dos materiais colhidos para análise e quantitativa na análise dos resultados. Ao término da pesquisa foi concluído que os laudos periciais contábeis atendem aos itens da estrutura emanada pela NBC TP 01/2015, em 81%

An improved bias correction scheme based on comparative precipitation characteristics

Bias correction is a necessary post-processing procedure in order to use regional climate model (RCM) simulated local climate variables as the input data for hydrological models owing to systematic errors of RCMs. Most of present bias correction methods adjust statistical properties between observed and simulated data on the basis of calendar periods, e.g. month or season. However, this matching statistic is only a necessary condition, not a sufficient condition, as temporal distribution of the precipitation between observed and simulated data is ignored. This study suggests an improved bias correction scheme that considers not only statistical properties but also the temporal distribution between the time series of observed and modelled data. The ratio of the observed precipitation to simulated precipitation is used to compare the behaviour between the observed and modelled precipitation data, and three criteria are proposed when dividing bias correction periods: (1) underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of /underestimation of precipitation, (2) stability of precipitation ratio and (3) oscillation of precipitation ratio. The results show that the output of the proposed bias correction method follows the trend of the observed precipitation better than that of the conventional bias correction method. This study indicates that temporal distribution should not be ignored when choosing a comparison period for bias correction. However, the study is only a preliminary attempt to address this important issue, and we hope it will stimulate more research activities to improve the methodology. Future efforts on several unsolved problems have been suggested such as how to find out the optimal group number to avoid the overfitting and underfitting conditions

Da pré-história à era antiga: aprendendo história com Age of Empires

-As novas tecnologias da informação e da comunicação (TICs) têm dominado o cotidiano de crianças e adolescentes. Assim, celulares, computadores, internet, aplicativos e videogames estão se tornando uma fonte de grande concorrência para as metodologias, em espacial as tradicionais, empregadas por profissionais da educação nos mais variados estabelecimentos de ensino do país. Proibi - los nesses ambien tes parece desproporcional, mas é necessário, então, uma integração dos mesmos com a educação. Logo, os games digitais, por exemplo, foco desse trabalho, têm seu papel nas escolas. Para o ensino de História, especificamente, no que tange à compreensão da P ré - História e da Era Antiga, é possível a introdução de um game lançado em meados da década de 1990, intitulado Age of Empires, sem que esse substitua os conteúdos em s

Atividade cicatrizante de três espécies adaptadas ao cerrado brasileiro em modelo experimental de úlceras dérmicas em coelhos com análise imunohistológica e morfológica

The Brazilian cerrado is one of the planet’s major biological diversity biomes, hosting a wide variety of medicinal plants used as part of the tradition and customs of local communities. The objectives of this study were to determine the levels of polyphenols and flavonoids; evaluate the antioxidant activity; correlate the levels of polyphenols and flavonoids among themselves and with the antioxidant activity and to evaluate the healing activity of the ethanol extracts (EE) of three species of the cerrado: Lippia sidoides, Synadenium grantii and Stachytarpheta gesnerioides. With the ethanol extracts (EE), obtained from leaves, it were spectrophotometrically quantified the concentrations of polyphenols and flavonoids, and it was also evaluated the antioxidant activity (DPPH) and their correlations. The EE obtained from the leaves were incorporated into the cream base (10% of L. sidoides, 10% of Synadenium grantii and 10% of Stachytarpheta gesnerioides) and their healing activity was evalluated. It was used as experimental model the induction of dermal ulcers in New Zealand albino rabbits (males 1.5-2.0 kg; n = 6). The ulcers were analyzed for the appearance of the lesion and the contraction of the wound area during 10 days. After this period, the histology was conducted using histological sections stained with hematoxylin-eosin to compare the number of inflammatory cells, fibroblasts and blood vessels and immunohistochemistry to compare the number of myofibroblasts among the experimental groups. Descriptive statistics analysis were conducted and, to assess the significance of differences between the mean results of groups, It was also applied the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's post hoc test, using SPSS version 14.0 and p <0.05. It was evaluated the Pearson correlation between the levels of polyphenols and flavonoids and between these levels and the antioxidant activity. All the EE of the used species showed the presence of polyphenols, flavonoids and antioxidant activity. It was demonstrated a positive correlation among these constituents and antioxidant activity. No difference was observed in the contraction of the lesion when compared to the control and treated groups. At microscopic analysis, treatment with L. sidoides showed the number of blood vessels, collagen area and area of extracellular matrix similar to the positive control; the number of fibroblasts and inflammatory cells was 24% (p = 0.002) and 54% (p <0.001) lower, respectively, compared to positive control. Treatment with Synadenium grantii presented number of fibroblasts, collagen area and area of extracellular matrix similar to the positive control and reduced the number of inflammatory cells (61%) and blood vessels (54%) (p <0.001 for both) compared the positive control. Treatment with Stachytarpheta gesnerioides presented number of fibroblasts, collagen area and area of extracellular matrix similar to the positive control and reduced the number of inflammatory cells (65%, p <0.001) and blood vessels (42%, p = 0.005) compared the positive control. In relation to the myofibroblasts, all treatments presented number of myofibroblasts similar to the positive control A combined analysis of these results suggest to perform further scientific studies related to healing activity of L. sidoides.O cerrado brasileiro é um dos maiores biomas de diversidade biológica do planeta, abrigando uma ampla variedade de espécies medicinais utilizadas como parte da tradição e costume das comunidades locais. Os objetivos deste estudo foram determinar os teores de polifenóis e flavonóides; avaliar a atividade antioxidante; correlacionar os teores de polifenóis e flavonóides entre si e com a atividade antioxidante e avaliar a atividade cicatrizantes de três espécies deste bioma: Lippia sidoides; Synadenium grantii e Stachytarpheta gesnerioides. Através dos extratos etanólicos (EE), obtidos das folhas, foram quantificados espectrofotometricamente os teores de polifenóis e de flavonóides e, ainda, avaliada a atividade antioxidante (DPPH) e as correlações. Os EE foram incorporados ao creme base (10% de L. sidoides; 10% de Synadenium grantii e 10% de Stachytarpheta gesnerioides) e avaliados quanto à atividade cicatrizante, empregando o modelo de indução de úlceras dérmicas em coelhos albinos da Nova Zelândia (machos 1.5-2.0 kg; n=6). As úlceras foram analisadas macroscopicamente quanto ao aspecto da lesão e a contração de sua área durante 10 dias. Após este período, foi feito estudo histológico em lâminas coradas com hematoxilina-eosina para comparação do número de células inflamatórias; fibroblastos; vasos sanguíneos; área de colágeno e área de matriz extracelular entre os grupos e imunoistoquímica com a contagem dos miofibroblastos. Foram realizadas análises estatísticas descritivas para avaliar a significância das diferenças entre as médias dos resultados dos grupos, foi aplicada a análise de variância (ANOVA) e teste post hoc de Tukey, utilizando o SPSS versão 14.0 e p < 0,05. Foi avaliada a correlação de Pearson entre os teores de polifenóis e flavonóides e entre esses teores e a atividade antioxidante. Todos os EE das espécies utilizadas apresentaram presença de polifenóis, flavonóides e atividade antioxidante. Foi demonstrada uma correlação positiva entre os teores de polifenóis e flavonóides e atividade antioxidante. Não foi observada diferença na contração da lesão quando comparados os grupos controle e tratados e em relação ao número de miofibroblastos os grupos testados foram estatisticamente similares ao controle positivo. O tratamento com L. sidoides apresentou número de vasos sanguíneos, área de colágeno e área de matriz extracelular similar ao controle positivo; o número de fibroblastos e células inflamatórias foi 24% (p=0,002) e 54% (p < 0,001) menor, respectivamente, em relação ao controle positivo. O tratamento com Synadenium grantii apresentou número de fibroblastos, área de colágeno e área de matriz extracelular semelhante ao controle positivo e reduziu o número de células inflamatórias (61%) e vasos sanguíneos (54%) (p < 0,001 para ambos), em relação ao controle positivo. O tratamento com Stachytarpheta gesnerioides apresentou número de fibroblastos; área de colágeno e área de matriz extracelular semelhante ao controle positivo e reduziu o número de células inflamatórias (65%, p < 0,001) e vasos sanguíneos (42%, p=0,005) em relação ao controle positivo. Em relação ao número de miofibroblastos, todos os tratamentos foram estatisticamente similares ao controle positivo. A análise conjunta dos resultados inéditos sugere a realização de novos estudos científicos relacionados à atividade cicatrizante de L. sidoides

Improving performance of bucket-type hydrological models in high latitudes with multi-model combination methods: Can we wring water from a stone?

Multi-model combination (averaging) methods (MMCMs) are used to improve the accuracy of hydrological (precipitation-runoff) outputs in simulation or forecasting/prediction modes. In this paper, we examined if the application of MMCMs can improve model performance in reproducing distributions of hydrological signatures, such as annual maxima or minima of varying durations. To this end, ten MMCMs were applied to 29 bucket-type models to simulate runoff in 50 high-latitude catchments. The MMCMs were evaluated by comparing the resulting simulated flows to the reference (i.e., best-performing) individual model, considering various commonly used performance indicators, as well as model performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Additionally, we analysed whether (1) the selection of the candidate models, or (2) targeting specific signatures, such as annual maxima or minima, can improve performance of the model combinations. The results suggest that the application of MMCMs can improve accuracy of runoff simulations in terms of traditional performance indicators, but fails to improve performance in reproducing the distributions of signatures. Neither excluding poor-performing models nor applying the MMCMs with the targeted signatures, improves this aspect of model performance. These findings clearly reveal the need for further research aiming at enhancing model performance in reproducing the distributions of hydrological signatures, which is essential for climate-change impact studies

Uni- and multivariate bias adjustment of climate model simulations in Nordic catchments: Effects on hydrological signatures relevant for water resources management in a changing climate

Hydrological climate-change-impact studies depend on climatic variables simulated by climate models. Due to parametrization and numerous simplifications, however, climate-model outputs come with systematic biases compared to the observations. In the past decade, several methods of different complexity and dimensionality for adjustment of such biases were introduced, but their benefits for impact studies and accurate streamflow projections are still debated. In this paper, we evaluated the ability of two state-of-the-art, advanced multivariate bias-adjustment methods to accurately reproduce 16 hydrological signatures, and compared their performance against two parsimonious univariate bias-adjustment methods based on a multi-criteria performance evaluation. The results indicated that all bias-adjustment methods considerably reduced biases and increased the consistency of simulated hydrological signatures. The added value of multivariate methods in maintaining dependence structures between precipitation and temperature was not systematically reflected in the resulting hydrological signatures, as they were generally outperformed by univariate methods. The benefits of multivariate methods only emerged for low-flow signatures in snowmelt-driven catchments. Based on these findings, we identified the most suitable bias-adjustment methods for water-resources management in Nordic regions under a changing climate, and provided practical guidelines for the selection of bias-adjustment methods given specific research targets and hydroclimatic regimes

A climate projection dataset tailored for the European energy sector

Climate information is necessary for the energy sector. However, the use of climate projections has remained limited so far for a number of reasons such us the lack of consistency among climate projections, the inadequate temporal and spatial resolution, the climate model biases, the lack of guidance for users, and the size of data sets. In this work, we develop and assess a consistent ensemble of high time and space resolution climate projections that address these problems. First, a methodology for sub-ensemble selection is developed and proposed. Our ensemble dataset includes eleven 12 km-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and surface solar radiation on 3-hourly and daily time scales. These variables are bias-corrected for a more effective use into impact studies. The assessment of bias-corrected model simulations against observational data indicates reduced biases and increased coherence in projected changes among models compared to the raw climate projections. We provide a well-documented dataset for energy practitioners and decision-makers to facilitate the access and use of energy-relevant high-quality climate information in operation and planning. The new dataset is freely available via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platform

Creating Community for Early-Career Geoscientists:Student involvement in geoscience unions: A case study from hydrology

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the European Geosciences Union (EGU) play central roles in nurturing the next generation of geoscientists. Students and young scientists make up about one-quarter of the unions’ active memberships [American Geophysical Union, 2013; European Geosciences Union, 2014], creating a major opportunity to include a new generation of geoscientists as more active contributors to the organizations’ activities, rather than merely as consumers

Towards a fair comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative

Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are well established techniques to bridge the gap between the coarse information produced by global circulation models and the regional-to-local scales required by the climate change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) communities. A number of studies have analyzed the relative merits of each technique by inter-comparing their performance in reproducing the observed climate, as given by a number of climatic indices (e.g. mean values, percentiles, spells). However, in this paper we stress that fair comparisons should be based on indices that are not affected by the calibration towards the observed climate used for some of the methods. We focus on precipitation (over continental Spain) and consider the output of eight Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.44? resolution and five Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs) ?analog resampling, weather typing and generalized linear models? trained using the Spain044 observational gridded dataset on exactly the same RCM grid. The performance of these models is inter-compared in terms of several standard indices ?mean precipitation, 90th percentile on wet days, maximum precipitation amount and maximum number of consecutive dry days? taking into account the parameters involved in the SDM training phase. It is shown, that not only the directly affected indices should be carefully analyzed, but also those indirectly influenced (e.g. percentile-based indices for precipitation) which are more difficult to identify. We also analyze how simple transformations (e.g. linear scaling) could be applied to the outputs of the uncalibrated methods in order to put SDMs and RCMs on equal footing, and thus perform a fairer comparison.We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and theWorking Group on CoupledModelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure and AEMET and University of Cantabria for the Spain02 dataset (available at http: //www.meteo.unican.es/en/datasets/spain02). All the statistical downscaling experiments have been computed using theMeteoLab software (http://www.meteo.unican.es/software/meteolab), which is an open-source Matlab toolbox for statistical downscaling. This work has been partially supported by CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) and EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) projects funded by the Spanish R&D programme. AC thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the funding provided within the FPI programme (BES-2011-047612 and EEBB-I-13-06354), JMG acknowledges the support from the SPECS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308378) and JF is grateful to the EUPORIAS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308291). We also thank three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript