Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources

Trifluoroacetic acid deposition from emissions of HFO-1234yf in India, China, and the Middle East

We have investigated trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) formation from emissions of HFO-1234yf (CF3CFH2), its dry and wet deposition, and rainwater concentration over India, China, and the Middle East with GEOS-Chem and WRF-Chem models. We estimated the TFA deposition and rainwater concentrations between 2020 and 2040 for four previously published HFO-1234yf emission scenarios to bound the possible levels of TFA. We evaluated the capability of GEOS-Chem to capture the wet deposition process by comparing calculated sulfate in rainwater with observations. Our calculated TFA amounts over the USA, Europe, and China were comparable to those previously reported when normalized to the same emission. A significant proportion of TFA was found to be deposited outside the emission regions. The mean and the extremes of TFA rainwater concentrations calculated for the four emission scenarios from GEOS-Chem and WRF-Chem were orders of magnitude below the no observable effect concentration. The ecological and human health impacts now, and the continued use of HFO-1234yf in India, China, and the Middle East, are estimated to be insignificant based on the current understanding, as summarized by Neale et al. (2021)

Self-regulation of ice flow varies across the ablation area in South-West Greenland

The concept of a positive feedback between ice flow and enhanced melt rates in a warmer climate fuelled the debate regarding the temporal and spatial controls on seasonal ice acceleration. Here we combine melt, basal water pressure and ice velocity data. Using 20 years of data covering the whole ablation area, we show that there is not a strong positive correlation between annual ice velocities and melt rates. Annual velocities even slightly decreased with increasing melt. Results also indicate that melt variations are most important for velocity variations in the upper ablation zone up to the equilibrium line altitude. During the extreme melt in 2012, a large velocity response near the equilibrium line was observed, highlighting the possibility of meltwater to have an impact even high on the ice sheet. This may lead to an increase of the annual ice velocity in the region above S9 and requires further monitoring

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5° C to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total CO2eq. inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 GtCO2eq.yr-1) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017-2019, mainly because of the lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and the lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time period preceded the beginning of the Kigali provisions, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications in anticipation of national or global mandates. There are two new HFC scenarios developed based (1) on current trends in HFC use and Kigali-independent (K-I) control policies currently existing in several countries and (2) current HFC trends and compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2022). These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0-5.3 GtCO2eq.yr-1 to 1.9-3.6 GtCO2eq.yr-1. The added provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9-1.0 GtCO2eq.yr-1 in 2050. Without any controls, projections suggest a HFC contribution of 0.28-0.44° C to global surface warming by 2100, compared to a temperature contribution of 0.14-0.31° C that is projected considering the national K-I policies current in place. Warming from HFCs is additionally limited by the Kigali Amendment controls to a contribution of about 0.04°C by 2100

Street-level methane emissions of Bucharest, Romania and the dominance of urban wastewater

Atmospheric methane (CH4) continues to increase, but there are multiple anthropogenic source categories that can be targeted for cost-effective emissions reduction. Cities emit CH4 to the atmosphere from a mixture of anthropogenic CH4 sources, which include, but are not limited to, fugitive emissions from natural gas distribution systems, wastewater treatment facilities, waste-and rainwater networks, and landfills. Therefore, to target mitigation measures, it is important to locate and quantify local urban emissions to prioritize mitigation opportunities in large cities. Using mobile measurement techniques, we located street-level CH4 leak indications, measured flux rates, and determined potential source origins (using carbon and hydrogen stable isotopic composition along with ethane: CH4 ratios) of CH4 in Bucharest, Romania. We found 969 confirmed CH4 leak indication locations, where the maximum mole fraction elevation (above background) was 38.3 ppm (mean = 0.9 ppm ± 0.1 ppm s.e.; n = 2482). Individual leak indicator fluxes, derived using a previously established empirical relation, ranged up to around 15 metric tons CH4 yr-1 (mean = 0.8 metric tons yr-1 ± 0.05, s.e.; n = 969). The total estimated city emission rate is 1832 tons CH4 yr-1 (min = 1577 t yr-1 and max = 2113 t yr-1). More than half (58%–63%) of the CH4 elevations were attributed to biogenic wastewater, mostly from venting storm grates and manholes connecting to sewer pipelines. Hydrogen isotopic composition of CH4 and ethane:methane ratios were the most useful tracers of CH4 sources, due to similarities in carbon isotope ratios between wastewater gas and natural gas. The annual city-wide CH4 emission estimate of Bucharest exceeded emissions of Hamburg, Germany by 76% and Paris, France by 90%

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH 3 CCl 3 Alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH₃CCl₃) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom‐up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long‐lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH‐SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long‐term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC‐32 (CH₂F₂), HFC‐134a (CH₂FCF₃, HFC‐152a (CH₃CHF₂), and HCFC‐22 (CHClF₂), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF

Atmospheric methane isotopes identify inventory knowledge gaps in the Surat Basin, Australia, coal seam gas and agricultural regions

In-flight measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4(a)) and mass balance flux quantification studies can assist with verification and improvement in the UNFCCC National Inventory reported CH4 emissions. In the Surat Basin gas fields, Queensland, Australia, coal seam gas (CSG) production and cattle farming are two of the major sources of CH4 emissions into the atmosphere. Because of the rapid mixing of adjacent plumes within the convective boundary layer, spatially attributing CH4(a) mole fraction readings to one or more emission sources is difficult. The primary aims of this study were to use the CH4(a) isotopic composition (13CCH4(a)) of in-flight atmospheric air (IFAA) samples to assess where the bottom-up (BU) inventory developed specifically for the region was well characterised and to identify gaps in the BU inventory (missing sources or over- and underestimated source categories). Secondary aims were to investigate whether IFAA samples collected downwind of predominantly similar inventory sources were useable for characterising the isotopic signature of CH4 sources (13CCH4(s)) and to identify mitigation opportunities. IFAA samples were collected between 100-350m above ground level (ma.g.l.) over a 2-week period in September 2018. For each IFAA sample the 2h back-trajectory footprint area was determined using the NOAA HYSPLIT atmospheric trajectory modelling application. IFAA samples were gathered into sets, where the 2h upwind BU inventory had >50% attributable to a single predominant CH4 source (CSG, grazing cattle, or cattle feedlots). Keeling models were globally fitted to these sets using multiple regression with shared parameters (background-air CH4(b) and 13CCH4(b)). For IFAA samples collected from 250-350ma.g.l. altitude, the best-fit 13CCH4(s) signatures compare well with the ground observation: CSG 13CCH4(s) of -55.4‰ (confidence interval (CI) 95%±13.7‰) versus 13CCH4(s) of -56.7‰ to -45.6‰; grazing cattle 13CCH4(s) of -60.5‰ (CI 95%±15.6‰) versus -61.7‰ to -57.5‰. For cattle feedlots, the derived 13CCH4(s) (-69.6‰, CI 95%±22.6‰), was isotopically lighter than the ground-based study (13CCH4(s) from -65.2‰ to -60.3‰) but within agreement given the large uncertainty for this source. For IFAA samples collected between 100-200ma.g.l. the 13CCH4(s) signature for the CSG set (-65.4‰, CI 95%±13.3‰) was isotopically lighter than expected, suggesting a BU inventory knowledge gap or the need to extend the population statistics for CSG 13CCH4(s) signatures. For the 100-200ma.g.l. set collected over grazing cattle districts the 13CCH4(s) signature (-53.8‰, CI 95%±17.4‰) was heavier than expected from the BU inventory. An isotopically light set had a low 13CCH4(s) signature of -80.2‰ (CI 95%±4.7‰). A CH4 source with this low 13CCH4(s) signature has not been incorporated into existing BU inventories for the region. Possible sources include termites and CSG brine ponds. If the excess emissions are from the brine ponds, they can potentially be mitigated. It is concluded that in-flight atmospheric 13CCH4(a) measurements used in conjunction with endmember mixing modelling of CH4 sources are powerful tools for BU inventory verification

Uncertainty and bias in global to regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risk

This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3–5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2–3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6–3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6–2.1). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other