Predicting hospital cost in CKD patients through blood chemistry values

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Controversy exists in predicting costly hospitalization in patients with chronic kidney disease and co-morbid conditions. We therefore tested associations between serum chemistry values and the occurrence of in-patient hospital costs over a thirteen month study period. Secondarily, we derived a linear combination of variables to estimate probability of such occurrences in any patient.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>We calculated parsimonious values for select variables associated with in-patient hospitalization and compared sensitivity and specificity of these models to ordinal staging of renal disease.</p> <p>Data from 1104 de-identified patients which included 18 blood chemistry observations along with complete claims data for all medical expenses.</p> <p>We employed multivariable logistic regression for serum chemistry values significantly associated with in-patient hospital costs exceeding $3,000 in any single month and contrasted those results to other models by ROC area curves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The linear combination of weighted Z scores for parathyroid hormone, phosphorus, and albumin correlated with in-patient hospital care at p < 0.005. ROC curves derived from weighted variables of age, eGFR, hemoglobin, albumin, creatinine, and alanine aminotransferase demonstrated significance over models based on non-weighted Z scores for those same variables or CKD stage alone. In contrast, the linear combination of weighted PTH, PO4 and albumin demonstrated better prediction, but not significance over non-weighted Z scores for PTH alone.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Further study is justified to explore indices that predict costly hospitalization. Such metrics could assist Accountable Care Organizations in evaluating risk adjusted compensation for providers.</p

Protein-Energy Wasting and Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with an increased death risk from cardiovascular diseases. However, while even minor renal dysfunction is an independent predictor of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, PEW becomes clinically manifest at an advanced stage, early before or during the dialytic stage. Mechanisms causing loss of muscle protein and fat are complex and not always associated with anorexia, but are linked to several abnormalities that stimulate protein degradation and/or decrease protein synthesis. In addition, data from experimental CKD indicate that uremia specifically blunts the regenerative potential in skeletal muscle, by acting on muscle stem cells. In this discussion recent findings regarding the mechanisms responsible for malnutrition and the increase in cardiovascular risk in CKD patients are discussed. During the course of CKD, the loss of kidney excretory and metabolic functions proceed together with the activation of pathways of endothelial damage, inflammation, acidosis, alterations in insulin signaling and anorexia which are likely to orchestrate net protein catabolism and the PEW syndrome

Impact of body mass index on short-term and long-term survival in prevalent hemodialysis patients

WOS: 000475503700022PubMed ID: 30860664Introduction: Numerous studies showed that higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with better survival in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Most of them evaluated short-term mortality. It has been suggested that presence of inflammation may be a key modifier of relationship between BMI and mortality in incident HD patients. We examined whether presence of inflammation modifies the association between BMI and mortality in both short-term and long-term follow-up in a large group of prevalent HD patients. Methods: A total of 3.252 HD patients from 41 HD centers were enrolled; the patients were divided into quartiles based on time-averaged BMI (Q1 = 27.4 kg/m(2)). Inflammation status was defined as present (inflamed) (C-reactive protein (CRP) >= 1.0 mg/dL and/or serum albumin <= 3.5 g/dL) or absent (noninflamed). Findings: During 7 years of follow-up 1386 patients (42.6%) died. Compared to noninflamed patients, inflamed patients in the lowest BMI quartile showed 5-fold increased risk for mortality in the short-term (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.82-9.22, P < 0.001) and 3-fold in the long-term (95%CI 2.42-4.27, P < 0.001) compared to the highest BMI quartile. Whereas, inflamed patients in the highest BMI quartile experienced 2-fold increased risk in short-term (95%CI 1.17-3.74, P = 0.01) and 1.68-fold increased risk in long-term (95%CI 1.30-2.18, P < 0.001) than in noninflamed patients. The protective effect of BMI for overall mortality was present in all age groups, in both genders, in patient with and without diabetes. BMI was not a mortality predictor in patients with HD duration more than 76 months at baseline. The protective effect of BMI was observed in all albumin tertiles. In patients in the lowest CRP tertile, BMI was not associated with mortality. Discussion: Higher BMI is associated with lower short-term and long-term mortality risk, especially in patients with inflammation in a prevalent HD population