Improving cycle corrections in discrete time Markov models : a Gaussian quadrature approach

Introduction: Discrete-time Markov models are widely used within health economic modelling. Analyses usually associate costs and health outcomes with health states and calculate totals for each decision option over some timeframe. Frequently, a correction method (e.g. half-cycle correction) is applied to unadjusted model outputs to yield an approximation to an assumed underlying continuous-time Markov model. In this study, we introduce a novel approximation method based on Gaussian Quadrature (GQ). Methods: We exploited analytical results for time-homogeneous Markov chains to derive a new GQ-based approximation, which is applied to an unadjusted discrete-time model output. The GQ method approximates a continuous-time Markov model result by approximating a correction matrix, formulated as an integral, using a weighted sum of integrand values at specified points. GQ approximations can be made arbitrarily accurate by increasing order of the approximation. We compared the first five orders of GQ approximation with four existing cycle correction methods (half-cycle correction, trapezoidal and Simpson 1/3 and 3/8 rules) across 100,000 randomly generated input parameter-sets. Results: We show that first-order GQ method is identical to half-cycle correction method, which is itself equivalent to trapezoidal method. The second-order GQ is identical to Simpson 1/3 method. The third, fourth and fifth order GQ methods are novel in this context and provide increasingly accurate approximations to the output of the continuous-time model. In our simulation study, fifth-order GQ method outperformed other existing methods in over 99.8% of simulations. Of the existing methods, Simpson 1/3 rule performed the best. Conclusion: Our novel GQ-based approximation outperforms other cycle correction methods for time-homogeneous models. The method is easy to implement, and R code and an Excel workbook are provided as supplementary materials

Long term impact of different cropping systems on soil quality under silty loam soils of Indo-Gangetic plains of India

In a multi-enterprise agriculture model, six different cropping systems have been evaluated at research farm of CSSRI Karnal for nutrient availability in surface soil. All the cropping systems left tremendous effect on soil quality. Among the different cropping systems, sorghum-berseem maintained lowest soil pH (8.14) followed by cowpea-cauliflower-potato cropping system (8.35). Sorghum-berseem cropping system was significantly build-up of soil fertility in terms of available nitrogen, (221.1kg/ha) and soil organic carbon (0.59%) as compared to other cropping systems. However, phosphorus (59.80 kg/ha) availability was higher in vegetable system followed by wheat-green gram cropping systems (48.85 kg/ha) than the other cropping systems. Vegetable system of multi-enterprise agriculture model showed more availability of Ca (3.20 me/L), Mg (2.63 me/L) and S (11.71 me/L) than other cropping systems. Higher amount of Fe (8.44 mg/kg) was observed in maize-wheat-green gram cropping system, whereas higher Mn (6.37 mg/kg) was noticed in sorghum-berseem fodder system than the other cropping system. Zn and Cu availability was relatively higher in vegetable system. Under prevailing climatic conditions of Karnal, sorghum-berseem fodder system was found to be the best with respect to soil quality and ready adaptability by the farmers as it was not much changed by climatic variability over the last 6 years. Vegetable system and fruits + vegetable were more or less similar in accelerating the availability of nutrients. Thus, leguminous crop (green gram) in any cropping system helped in improving the soil health, which is a good indicator of soil productivity

Multiwavelength Study of M8.9/3B Solar Flare from AR NOAA 10960

We present a multi-wavelength analysis of a long duration white-light solar flare (M8.9/3B) event that occurred on 4 June 2007 from NOAA AR 10960. The flare was observed by several spaceborne instruments, namely SOHO/MDI, Hinode/SOT, TRACE and STEREO/SECCHI. The flare was initiated near a small, positive-polarity, satellite sunspot at the centre of the AR, surrounded by opposite-polarity field regions. MDI images of the AR show considerable amount of changes in a small positive-polarity sunspot of delta configuration during the flare event. SOT/G-band (4305 A) images of the sunspot also suggest the rapid evolution of the positive-polarity sunspot with highly twisted penumbral filaments before the flare event, which were oriented in the counterclockwise direction. It shows the change in orientation and also remarkable disappearance of twisted penumbral filaments (~35-40%) and enhancement in umbral area (~45-50%) during the decay phase of the flare. TRACE and SECCHI observations reveal the successive activations of two helical twisted structures associated with this sunspot, and the corresponding brightening in the chromosphere as observed by the time-sequence images of SOT/Ca II H line (3968 A). The secondary-helical twisted structure is found to be associated with the M8.9 flare event. The brightening starts 6-7 min prior to the flare maximum with the appearance of secondary helical-twisted structure. The flare intensity maximizes as this structure moves away from the AR. This twisted flux-tube associated with the flare triggering, is found to be failed in eruption. The location of the flare is found to coincide with the activation site of the helical twisted structures. We conclude that the activations of successive helical twists in the magnetic flux tubes/ropes plays a crucial role in the energy build-up process and triggering of M-class solar flare without a CME.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, Accepted for Publication in Solar Physic

Multiwavelength Study on Solar and Interplanetary Origins of the Strongest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 23

We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H-alpha observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H-alpha observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ~350 and ~100 km/s), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (~1223 and ~1660 km/s, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast drifting type II radio bursts) in the corona. The interaction of these CMEs along the Sun-Earth line has led to the severity of the storm. According to our investigation, the interplanetary medium consisted of two merging magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserved their identity during their propagation. These magnetic clouds made the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward for a long time, which reconnected with the geomagnetic field, resulting the super-storm (Dst_peak=-472 nT) on the Earth.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures, Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Dynamics of Coronal Bright Points as seen by Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP), Atmospheric Imaging Assembly AIA), and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)

The \textit{Sun Watcher using Active Pixel system detector and Image Processing}(SWAP) on board the \textit{PRoject for OnBoard Autonomy\todash 2} (PROBA\todash 2) spacecraft provides images of the solar corona in EUV channel centered at 174 \AA. These data, together with \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} (AIA) and the \textit{Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager} (HMI) on board \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO), are used to study the dynamics of coronal bright points. The evolution of the magnetic polarities and associated changes in morphology are studied using magnetograms and multi-wavelength imaging. The morphology of the bright points seen in low-resolution SWAP images and high-resolution AIA images show different structures, whereas the intensity variations with time show similar trends in both SWAP 174 and AIA 171 channels. We observe that bright points are seen in EUV channels corresponding to a magnetic-flux of the order of $10^{18}$ Mx. We find that there exists a good correlation between total emission from the bright point in several UV\todash EUV channels and total unsigned photospheric magnetic flux above certain thresholds. The bright points also show periodic brightenings and we have attempted to find the oscillation periods in bright points and their connection to magnetic flux changes. The observed periods are generally long (10\todash 25 minutes) and there is an indication that the intensity oscillations may be generated by repeated magnetic reconnection

Reductive Metabolism of AGE Precursors: A Metabolic Route for Preventing AGE Accumulation in Cardiovascular Tissue

OBJECTIVE—To examine the role of aldo-keto reductases (AKRs) in the cardiovascular metabolism of the precursors of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Steady-state kinetic parameters of AKRs with AGE precursors were determined using recombinant proteins expressed in bacteria. Metabolism of meth-ylglyoxal and AGE accumulation were studied in human umbil-ical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) and C57 wild-type, akr1b3 (aldose reductase)-null, cardiospecific-akr1b4 (rat aldose reduc-tase), and akr1b8 (FR-1)-transgenic mice. AGE accumulation and atherosclerotic lesions were studied 12 weeks after streptozoto-cin treatment of C57, akr1b3-null, and apoE- and akr1b3-apoE– null mice. RESULTS—Higher levels of AGEs were generated in the cytosol than at the external surface of HUVECs cultured in high glucose

Pion, kaon, proton and anti-proton transverse momentum distributions from p+p and d+Au collisions at sNN=200\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 200 GeV

Identified mid-rapidity particle spectra of $\pi^{\pm}$, $K^{\pm}$, and $p(\bar{p})$ from 200 GeV p+p and d+Au collisions are reported. A time-of-flight detector based on multi-gap resistive plate chamber technology is used for particle identification. The particle-species dependence of the Cronin effect is observed to be significantly smaller than that at lower energies. The ratio of the nuclear modification factor ($R_{dAu}$) between protons $(p+\bar{p})$ and charged hadrons ($h$) in the transverse momentum range $1.2<{p_{T}}<3.0$ GeV/c is measured to be $1.19\pm0.05$(stat)$\pm0.03$(syst) in minimum-bias collisions and shows little centrality dependence. The yield ratio of $(p+\bar{p})/h$ in minimum-bias d+Au collisions is found to be a factor of 2 lower than that in Au+Au collisions, indicating that the Cronin effect alone is not enough to account for the relative baryon enhancement observed in heavy ion collisions at RHIC.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. We extended the pion spectra from transverse momentum 1.8 GeV/c to 3. GeV/

Azimuthal anisotropy at RHIC: the first and fourth harmonics

We report the first observations of the first harmonic (directed flow, v_1), and the fourth harmonic (v_4), in the azimuthal distribution of particles with respect to the reaction plane in Au+Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Both measurements were done taking advantage of the large elliptic flow (v_2) generated at RHIC. From the correlation of v_2 with v_1 it is determined that v_2 is positive, or {\it in-plane}. The integrated v_4 is about a factor of 10 smaller than v_2. For the sixth (v_6) and eighth (v_8) harmonics upper limits on the magnitudes are reported.Comment: 6 pages with 3 figures, as accepted for Phys. Rev. Letters The data tables are at http://www.star.bnl.gov/central/publications/pubDetail.php?id=3

Anisotropic flow of charged hadrons, pions and (anti-)protons measured at high transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}=2.76 TeV

The elliptic, $v_2$, triangular, $v_3$, and quadrangular, $v_4$, azimuthal anisotropic flow coefficients are measured for unidentified charged particles, pions and (anti-)protons in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Results obtained with the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods are reported for the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ at different collision centralities and as a function of transverse momentum, $p_{\rm T}$, out to $p_{\rm T}=20$ GeV/$c$. The observed non-zero elliptic and triangular flow depends only weakly on transverse momentum for $p_{\rm T}>8$ GeV/$c$. The small $p_{\rm T}$ dependence of the difference between elliptic flow results obtained from the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods suggests a common origin of flow fluctuations up to $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$. The magnitude of the (anti-)proton elliptic and triangular flow is larger than that of pions out to at least $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$ indicating that the particle type dependence persists out to high $p_{\rm T}$.Comment: 16 pages, 5 captioned figures, authors from page 11, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/186

Centrality dependence of charged particle production at large transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}} = 2.76 TeV

The inclusive transverse momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) distributions of primary charged particles are measured in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ as a function of event centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=2.76$ TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The data are presented in the $p_{\rm T}$ range $0.15<p_{\rm T}<50$ GeV/$c$ for nine centrality intervals from 70-80% to 0-5%. The Pb-Pb spectra are presented in terms of the nuclear modification factor $R_{\rm{AA}}$ using a pp reference spectrum measured at the same collision energy. We observe that the suppression of high-$p_{\rm T}$ particles strongly depends on event centrality. In central collisions (0-5%) the yield is most suppressed with $R_{\rm{AA}}\approx0.13$ at $p_{\rm T}=6$-7 GeV/$c$. Above $p_{\rm T}=7$ GeV/$c$, there is a significant rise in the nuclear modification factor, which reaches $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx0.4$ for $p_{\rm T}>30$ GeV/$c$. In peripheral collisions (70-80%), the suppression is weaker with $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx 0.7$ almost independently of $p_{\rm T}$. The measured nuclear modification factors are compared to other measurements and model calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 4 captioned figures, 2 tables, authors from page 12, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/284