Characterizations of inequality orderings by means of dispersive orderings

The generalized Lorenz order and the absolute Lorenz order are used in economics to compare income distributions in terms of social welfare. In Section 2, we show that these orders are equivalent to two stochastic orders, the concave order and the dilation order, which are used to compare the dispersion of probability distributions. In Section 3, a sufficient condition for the absolute Lorenz order, which is often easy to verify in practice, is presented. This condition is applied in Section 4 to the ordering of generalized gamma distributions with different parameters

The proportional likelihood ratio order and applications

In this paper, we introduce a new stochastic order between continuous non-negative random variables called the PLR (proportional likelihood ratio) order, which is closely related to the usual likelihood ratio order. The PLR order can be used to characterize random variables whose logarithms have log-concave (log-convex) densities. Many income random variables satisfy this property and they are said to have the IPLR (increasing proportional likelihood ratio) property (DPLR property). As an application, we show that the IPLR and DPLR properties are sufficient conditions for the Lorenz ordering of truncated distributions

Characterizations of inequality orderings by means of dispersive orderings

The generalized Lorenz order and the absolute Lorenz order are used in economics to compare income distributions in terms of social welfare. In Section 2, we show that these orders are equivalent to two stochastic orders, the concave order and the dilation order, which are used to compare the dispersion of probability distributions. In Section 3, a sufficient condition for the absolute Lorenz order, which is often easy to verify in practice, is presented. This condition is applied in Section 4 to the ordering of generalized gamma distributions with different parameters

Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events

1. The skill of state-of-the-art operational seasonal forecast models in extratropical latitudes is assessed using a multimodel ensemble from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonalto- Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. In particular, probabilistic forecasts of surface precipitation and maximum temperature in Spain are analyzed using a high-resolution observation gridded dataset (Spain02). To this aim, a simple statistical test based on the observed and predicted tercile anomalies is used. First, the whole period 1960–2000 is considered and it is shown that the only significant skill is found for dry events in autumn. Then, the influence of ENSO events as a potential source of conditional predictability is studied and the validation to strong La Niña or El Niño periods is restricted. Skillful seasonal predictions are found in partial agreement with the observed teleconnections derived from the historical records. On the one hand, predictability is found in spring related to El Niño events for dry events over the south and the Mediterranean coast and for hot events in the southeast areas. In contrast, La Niña drives predictability in winter for dry events over the western part and for hot events in summer over the south and the Mediterranean coast. This study considers both the direct model outputs and the postprocessed predictions obtained using a statistical downscaling method based on analogs. In general, the use of the downscaling method outperforms the direct output for precipitation, whereas in the case of the temperature no improvement is obtained

Detailed stellar activity analysis and modelling of GJ 832

Context. Gliese-832 (GJ 832) is an M2V star hosting a massive planet on a decade-long orbit, GJ 832b, discovered by radial velocity (RV). Later, a super Earth or mini-Neptune orbiting within the stellar habitable zone was reported (GJ 832c). The recently determined stellar rotation period (45.7 ± 9.3 days) is close to the orbital period of putative planet c (35.68 ± 0.03 days). Aims. We aim to confirm or dismiss the planetary nature of the RV signature attributed to GJ 832c, by adding 119 new RV data points, new photometric data, and an analysis of the spectroscopic stellar activity indicators. Additionally, we update the orbital parameters of the planetary system and search for additional signals. Methods. We performed a frequency content analysis of the RVs to search for periodic and stable signals. Radial velocity time series were modelled with Keplerians and Gaussian process (GP) regressions alongside activity indicators to subsequently compare them within a Bayesian framework. Results. We updated the stellar rotational period of GJ 832 from activity indicators, obtaining 37.5+1.4-1.5 days, improving the precision by a factor of 6. The new photometric data are in agreement with this value. We detected an RV signal near 18 days (FAP < 4.6%), which is half of the stellar rotation period. Two Keplerians alone fail at modelling GJ 832b and a second planet with a 35-day orbital period. Moreover, the Bayesian evidence from the GP analysis of the RV data with simultaneous activity indices prefers a model without a second Keplerian, therefore negating the existence of planet c

The wide-field, multiplexed, spectroscopic facility WEAVE : survey design, overview, and simulated implementation

Funding for the WEAVE facility has been provided by UKRI STFC, the University of Oxford, NOVA, NWO, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), the Isaac Newton Group partners (STFC, NWO, and Spain, led by the IAC), INAF, CNRS-INSU, the Observatoire de Paris, Région Île-de-France, CONCYT through INAOE, Konkoly Observatory (CSFK), Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie (MPIA Heidelberg), Lund University, the Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP), the Swedish Research Council, the European Commission, and the University of Pennsylvania.WEAVE, the new wide-field, massively multiplexed spectroscopic survey facility for the William Herschel Telescope, will see first light in late 2022. WEAVE comprises a new 2-degree field-of-view prime-focus corrector system, a nearly 1000-multiplex fibre positioner, 20 individually deployable 'mini' integral field units (IFUs), and a single large IFU. These fibre systems feed a dual-beam spectrograph covering the wavelength range 366-959 nm at R ∼ 5000, or two shorter ranges at R ∼ 20,000. After summarising the design and implementation of WEAVE and its data systems, we present the organisation, science drivers and design of a five- to seven-year programme of eight individual surveys to: (i) study our Galaxy's origins by completing Gaia's phase-space information, providing metallicities to its limiting magnitude for ∼ 3 million stars and detailed abundances for ∼ 1.5 million brighter field and open-cluster stars; (ii) survey ∼ 0.4 million Galactic-plane OBA stars, young stellar objects and nearby gas to understand the evolution of young stars and their environments; (iii) perform an extensive spectral survey of white dwarfs; (iv) survey  ∼ 400 neutral-hydrogen-selected galaxies with the IFUs; (v) study properties and kinematics of stellar populations and ionised gas in z 1 million spectra of LOFAR-selected radio sources; (viii) trace structures using intergalactic/circumgalactic gas at z > 2. Finally, we describe the WEAVE Operational Rehearsals using the WEAVE Simulator.PostprintPeer reviewe

The wide-field, multiplexed, spectroscopic facility WEAVE: Survey design, overview, and simulated implementation

WEAVE, the new wide-field, massively multiplexed spectroscopic survey facility for the William Herschel Telescope, will see first light in late 2022. WEAVE comprises a new 2-degree field-of-view prime-focus corrector system, a nearly 1000-multiplex fibre positioner, 20 individually deployable 'mini' integral field units (IFUs), and a single large IFU. These fibre systems feed a dual-beam spectrograph covering the wavelength range 366$-$959\,nm at $R\sim5000$, or two shorter ranges at $R\sim20\,000$. After summarising the design and implementation of WEAVE and its data systems, we present the organisation, science drivers and design of a five- to seven-year programme of eight individual surveys to: (i) study our Galaxy's origins by completing Gaia's phase-space information, providing metallicities to its limiting magnitude for $\sim$3 million stars and detailed abundances for $\sim1.5$ million brighter field and open-cluster stars; (ii) survey $\sim0.4$ million Galactic-plane OBA stars, young stellar objects and nearby gas to understand the evolution of young stars and their environments; (iii) perform an extensive spectral survey of white dwarfs; (iv) survey $\sim400$ neutral-hydrogen-selected galaxies with the IFUs; (v) study properties and kinematics of stellar populations and ionised gas in $z<0.5$ cluster galaxies; (vi) survey stellar populations and kinematics in $\sim25\,000$ field galaxies at $0.3\lesssim z \lesssim 0.7$; (vii) study the cosmic evolution of accretion and star formation using $>1$ million spectra of LOFAR-selected radio sources; (viii) trace structures using intergalactic/circumgalactic gas at $z>2$. Finally, we describe the WEAVE Operational Rehearsals using the WEAVE Simulator.Comment: 41 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

The wide-field, multiplexed, spectroscopic facility WEAVE: Survey design, overview, and simulated implementation

WEAVE, the new wide-field, massively multiplexed spectroscopic survey facility for the William Herschel Telescope, will see first light in late 2022. WEAVE comprises a new 2-degree field-of-view prime-focus corrector system, a nearly 1000-multiplex fibre positioner, 20 individually deployable 'mini' integral field units (IFUs), and a single large IFU. These fibre systems feed a dual-beam spectrograph covering the wavelength range 366−959\,nm at R∼5000, or two shorter ranges at R∼20000. After summarising the design and implementation of WEAVE and its data systems, we present the organisation, science drivers and design of a five- to seven-year programme of eight individual surveys to: (i) study our Galaxy's origins by completing Gaia's phase-space information, providing metallicities to its limiting magnitude for ∼3 million stars and detailed abundances for ∼1.5 million brighter field and open-cluster stars; (ii) survey ∼0.4 million Galactic-plane OBA stars, young stellar objects and nearby gas to understand the evolution of young stars and their environments; (iii) perform an extensive spectral survey of white dwarfs; (iv) survey ∼400 neutral-hydrogen-selected galaxies with the IFUs; (v) study properties and kinematics of stellar populations and ionised gas in z1 million spectra of LOFAR-selected radio sources; (viii) trace structures using intergalactic/circumgalactic gas at z>2. Finally, we describe the WEAVE Operational Rehearsals using the WEAVE Simulator