Polymorphic Amplified Typing Sequences (PATS) Strain Typing System Accurately Discriminates a Set of Temporally and Spatially Disparate Escherichia coli O157 Isolates Associated with Human Infection

Polymorphic Amplified Typing Sequences (PATS) is a PCR-based Escherichia coli O157 (O157) strain typing system. Here, we show that PATS compares excellently with Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE) in that both methods cluster geographically diverse O157 isolates similarly. Comparative analysis of the results obtained in this simulated “blind” study attests to the discriminating power and applicability of PATS to epidemiological/nosocomial situations

Genome-Wide Analysis of the Emerging Infection with Mycobacterium avium Subspecies paratuberculosis in the Arabian Camels (Camelus dromedarius)

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (M. ap) is the causative agent of paratuberculosis or Johne's disease (JD) in herbivores with potential involvement in cases of Crohn's disease in humans. JD is spread worldwide and is economically important for both beef and dairy industries. Generally, pathogenic ovine strains (M. ap-S) are mainly found in sheep while bovine strains (M. ap-C) infect other ruminants (e.g. cattle, goat, deer), as well as sheep. In an effort to characterize this emerging infection in dromedary/Arabian camels, we successfully cultured M. ap from several samples collected from infected camels suffering from chronic, intermittent diarrhea suggestive of JD. Gene-based typing of isolates indicated that all isolates belong to sheep lineage of strains of M. ap (M. ap-S), suggesting a putative transmission from infected sheep herds. Screening sheep and goat herds associated with camels identified the circulation of this type in sheep but not goats. The current genome-wide analysis recognizes these camel isolates as a sub-lineage of the sheep strain with a significant number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between sheep and camel isolates (∼1000 SNPs). Such polymorphism could represent geographical differences among isolates or host adaptation of M. ap during camel infection. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine the genomic basis of this emerging infection in camels with implications on the evolution of this important pathogen. The sequenced genomes of M. ap isolates from camels will further assist our efforts to understand JD pathogenesis and the dynamic of disease transmission across animal species

Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81-87 y]; 51.8% male). MEASUREMENTS: Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: The 30-day-mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30-day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die. CONCLUSION: A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30-day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision-making capacity

Relationship between the Clinical Frailty Scale and short-term mortality in patients ≥ 80 years old acutely admitted to the ICU: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is frequently used to measure frailty in critically ill adults. There is wide variation in the approach to analysing the relationship between the CFS score and mortality after admission to the ICU. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of modelling approach on the association between the CFS score and short-term mortality and quantify the prognostic value of frailty in this context. METHODS: We analysed data from two multicentre prospective cohort studies which enrolled intensive care unit patients ≥ 80 years old in 26 countries. The primary outcome was mortality within 30-days from admission to the ICU. Logistic regression models for both ICU and 30-day mortality included the CFS score as either a categorical, continuous or dichotomous variable and were adjusted for patient's age, sex, reason for admission to the ICU, and admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. RESULTS: The median age in the sample of 7487 consecutive patients was 84 years (IQR 81-87). The highest fraction of new prognostic information from frailty in the context of 30-day mortality was observed when the CFS score was treated as either a categorical variable using all original levels of frailty or a nonlinear continuous variable and was equal to 9% using these modelling approaches (p < 0.001). The relationship between the CFS score and mortality was nonlinear (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Knowledge about a patient's frailty status adds a substantial amount of new prognostic information at the moment of admission to the ICU. Arbitrary simplification of the CFS score into fewer groups than originally intended leads to a loss of information and should be avoided. Trial registration NCT03134807 (VIP1), NCT03370692 (VIP2)

Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods

We propose a comprehensive framework able to address both the predictability of the first and of the second kind for high-dimensional chaotic models. For this purpose, we analyse the properties of a newly introduced multistable climate toy model constructed by coupling the Lorenz ’96 model with a zero-dimensional energy balance model. First, the attractors of the system are identified with Monte Carlo Basin Bifurcation Analysis. Additionally, we are able to detect the Melancholia state separating the two attractors. Then, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations are applied to predict the future state of the system in both of the identified attractors

Genome sequencing reveals Zika virus diversity and spread in the Americas

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests

Construction and transfection of ovine adenovirus genomic clones to rescue modified viruses

The genome of ovine adenovirus OAV287 has an arrangement which is unique among known adenoviruses. To facilitate further experimentation on the structure and function of this genome, plasmids containing a complete clone of the genome were constructed. The cloned viral genome was released from plasmids by restriction enzyme digestion as an intact linear molecule with authentic 5' termini. Transfection of the linear DNA into cells which supported replication produced infectious virus. Mutation of a uniqueSalI site at the right-hand end of the genome disrupted reading frames of unknown function without affecting virus rescue, identifying this region as nonessential for replicationin vitro.A 20-bp oligonucleotide was also inserted into the short intergenic region between the pVIII and the fiber sequences, identifying a second site for gene insertion. These studies will facilitate the development of OAV as a gene transfer vector