The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum:how much carbon is enough?

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM),55.53 million years before present, was an abrupt warming event that involved profound changes in the carbon cycle and led to major perturbations of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The PETM was triggered by the release of a massive amount of carbon, and thus, the event provides an analog for future climate and environmental changes given the current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Previous attempts to constrain the amount of carbon released have produced widely diverging results, between 2000 and 10,000 gigatons carbon (GtC). Here we use the UVic Earth System Climate Model in conjunction with a recently published compilation of PETM temperatures to constrain the initial atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as the total mass of carbon released during the event. Thirty-six simulations were initialized with varying ocean alkalinity, river runoff, and ocean sediment cover. Simulating various combinations of pre-PETM CO2 levels (840, 1680, and 2520 ppm) and total carbon releases (3000, 4500, 7000, and 10,000 GtC), we find that both the 840 ppm plus 7000 GtC and 1680 ppm plus 7000-10,000 GtC scenarios agree best with temperature reconstructions. Bottom waters outside the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans remain well oxygenated in all of our simulations. While the recovery time and rates are highly dependent on ocean alkalinity and sediment cover, the maximum temperature anomaly, used here to constrain the amount of carbon released, is less dependent on this slow-acting feedback. Key PointsWe constrain pre-PETM CO2 concentration and total amount of carbon releasedData-model comparison with full OGCM including long-term transient simulationsOnly carbon-intensive scenarios are compatible with dat

Drake-Scotia Sea gateways: onset and evolution of the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, implications for global ocean circulation and climate

Australasian IODP Regional Planing Workshop (2017. Sidney)Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, EspañaInstituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, EspañaIstituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale, ItaliaSan Diego State University, Estados UnidosPeer reviewe

Descent toward the icehouse: Eocene sea surface cooling inferred from GDGT distributions

The TEX86 proxy, based on the distribution of marine isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids (GDGTs), is increasingly used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) during the Eocene epoch (56.0–33.9 Ma). Here we compile published TEX86 records, critically reevaluate them in light of new understandings in TEX86 palaeothermometry, and supplement them with new data in order to evaluate long-term temperature trends in the Eocene. We investigate the effect of archaea other than marine Thaumarchaeota upon TEX86 values using the branched-to-isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT), the abundance of GDGT-0 relative to crenarchaeol (%GDGT-0), and the Methane Index (MI). We also introduce a new ratio, % GDGTRS, which may help identify Red Sea-type GDGT distributions in the geological record. Using the offset between TEX86H and TEX86L(ΔH-L) and the ratio between GDGT-2 and GDGT-3 ([2]/[3]), we evaluate different TEX86 calibrations and present the first integrated SST compilation for the Eocene (55 to 34 Ma). Although the available data are still sparse some geographic trends can now be resolved. In the high latitudes (>55°), there was substantial cooling during the Eocene (~6°C). Our compiled record also indicates tropical cooling of ~2.5°C during the same interval. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations that span the Eocene, our results indicate that only a small percentage (~10%) of the reconstructed temperature change can be ascribed to ocean gateway reorganization or paleogeographic change. Collectively, this indicates that atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) was the likely driver of surface water cooling during the descent toward the icehouse

Oceanic hindcast simulations at high resolution suggest that the Atlantic MOC is bistable

All climate models predict a freshening of the North Atlantic at high latitude that may induce an abrupt change of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (hereafter AMOC) if it resides in the bistable regime, where both a strong and a weak state coexist. The latter remains uncertain as there is no consensus among observations and ocean reanalyses, where the AMOC is bistable, versus most climate models that reproduce a mono-stable strong AMOC. A series of four hindcast simulations of the global ocean at 1/12° resolution, which is presently unique, are used to diagnose freshwater transport by the AMOC in the South Atlantic, an indicator of AMOC bistability. In all simulations, the AMOC resides in the bistable regime: it exports freshwater southward in the South Atlantic, implying a positive salt advection feedback that would act to amplify a decreasing trend in subarctic deep water formation as projected in climate scenarios

Onset and development of the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea gateways and its influence on global ocean circulation and climate (IODP proposal)

The DRAKE-SCOTIA SEA GATEWAYS is a new multidisciplinary International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drilling proposal aimed at determining the time of opening and pattern of development of gateways in the Drake Passage and the adjacent Scotia Sea, and their influence on global ocean circulation, biotic evolution and climate. The Drake Passage with the adjacent Scotia Sea represent one of Earth’s most important oceanic gateways, between the southern tip of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, a crucial area for water mass exchange between the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and the Weddell Sea, the importance of which is evidence by in many multinational studies. Nevertheless, the region has not been yet drilled for scientific purposes. The objective of this work is to present the main scientific goals of this drilling proposal and its link with the IODP Science Plan for 2013-2023.Department of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University, Reino UnidoBritish Antarctic Survey, Reino UnidoDepartment og Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, Estados UnidosGeophysical Department, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, DinamarcaAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz for Polar and Marine Research, AlemaniaInstituto Geológico y Minero de España, EspañaOcean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Reino UnidoUniversity Texas at Austin, Estados UnidosInstitute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Reino UnidoInstituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, EspañaInstituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Granada, EspañaCollege of Earth, Ocean and the Environment, University of Delaware, Estados UnidosUniversity New South Wales, AustraliaUniversity Nebraska-Lincoln, Estados UnidosUniversidad de Buenos Aires, Argentin

Proxy evidence for state-dependence of climate sensitivity in the Eocene greenhouse

Despite recent advances, the link between the evolution of atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Eocene greenhouse remains uncertain. In particular, modelling studies suggest that in order to achieve the global warmth that characterised the early Eocene, warmer climates must be more sensitive to CO2 forcing than colder climates. Here, we test this assertion in the geological record by combining a new high-resolution boron isotope-based CO2 record with novel estimates of Global Mean Temperature. We find that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) was indeed higher during the warmest intervals of the Eocene, agreeing well with recent model simulations, and declined through the Eocene as global climate cooled. These observations indicate that the canonical IPCC range of ECS (1.5 to 4.5 °C per doubling) is unlikely to be appropriate for high-CO2 warm climates of the past, and the state dependency of ECS may play an increasingly important role in determining the state of future climate as the Earth continues to warm

The key role of the western boundary in linking the AMOC strength to the north-south pressure gradient

A key idea in the study of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is that its strength is proportional to the meridional density gradient, or more precisely, to the strength of the meridional pressure gradient. A physical basis that would tell us how to estimate the relevant meridional pressure gradient locally from the density distribution in numerical ocean models to test such an idea, has been lacking however. Recently, studies of ocean energetics have suggested that the AMOC is driven by the release of available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy (KE), and that such a conversion takes place primarily in the deep western boundary currents. In this paper, we develop an analytical description linking the western boundary current circulation below the interface separating the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) to the shape of this interface. The simple analytical model also shows how available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy at each location, and that the strength of the transport within the western boundary current is proportional to the local meridional pressure gradient at low latitudes. The present results suggest, therefore, that the conversion rate of potential energy may provide the necessary physical basis for linking the strength of the AMOC to the meridional pressure gradient, and that this could be achieved by a detailed study of the APE to KE conversion in the western boundary current