Integrating natural gradients, experiments, and statistical modeling in a distributed network experiment: An example from the WaRM Network

A growing body of work examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems, typically by using manipulative experiments at a single site or performing meta-analyses across many independent experiments. However, results from single-site studies tend to have limited generality. Although meta-analytic approaches can help overcome this by exploring trends across sites, the inherent limitations in combining disparate datasets from independent approaches remain a major challenge. In this paper, we present a globally distributed experimental network that can be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We discuss how natural gradients, experimental approaches, and statistical techniques can be combined to best inform predictions about responses to climate change, and we present a globally distributed experiment that utilizes natural environmental gradients to better understand long-term community and ecosystem responses to environmental change. The warming and (species) removal in mountains (WaRM) network employs experimental warming and plant species removals at high- and low-elevation sites in a factorial design to examine the combined and relative effects of climatic warming and the loss of dominant species on community structure and ecosystem function, both above- and belowground. The experimental design of the network allows for increasingly common statistical approaches to further elucidate the direct and indirect effects of warming. We argue that combining ecological observations and experiments along gradients is a powerful approach to make stronger predictions of how ecosystems will function in a warming world as species are lost, or gained, in local communities

Integrating natural gradients, experiments, and statistical modeling in a distributed network experiment: An example from the WaRM Network

A growing body of work examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems, typically by using manipulative experiments at a single site or performing meta-analyses across many independent experiments. However, results from single-site studies tend to have limited generality. Although meta-analytic approaches can help overcome this by exploring trends across sites, the inherent limitations in combining disparate datasets from independent approaches remain a major challenge. In this paper, we present a globally distributed experimental network that can be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We discuss how natural gradients, experimental approaches, and statistical techniques can be combined to best inform predictions about responses to climate change, and we present a globally distributed experiment that utilizes natural environmental gradients to better understand long-term community and ecosystem responses to environmental change. The warming and (species) removal in mountains (WaRM) network employs experimental warming and plant species removals at high- and low-elevation sites in a factorial design to examine the combined and relative effects of climatic warming and the loss of dominant species on community structure and ecosystem function, both above- and belowground. The experimental design of the network allows for increasingly common statistical approaches to further elucidate the direct and indirect effects of warming. We argue that combining ecological observations and experiments along gradients is a powerful approach to make stronger predictions of how ecosystems will function in a warming world as species are lost, or gained, in local communities

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57

Thinking about Race: The Salience of Racial Identity at Two- and Four-Year Colleges and the Climate for Diversity

Racial identity salience is an important component of identity development that is associated with a number of educational outcomes. Using the Diverse Learning Environments Survey, this study identifies precollege and college experiences that contribute to a heightened salience of racial identity, and its relationship to perceptions of campus climate

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Children’s Independent Mobility and Physical Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study with Families

Children’s independent mobility (CIM) is the freedom of children to move around their neighbourhood without adult supervision and is closely related to overall physical activity participation. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted movement behaviours for children, with evidence indicating a decrease in physical activity. The aim of this study was to explore experiences of CIM and physical activity during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspectives of children and their parents. We completed 21 family (at least one parent and one child aged 7–12) semi-structured interviews with 45 participants living in small urban and rural areas of British Columbia, Canada. Three themes were identified through a reflexive thematic analysis: (1) keeping everyone safe from COVID-19; (2) change in pattern and types of activity; (3) social impacts with family, friends, and community. Participants expressed a perceived increase in unstructured activity and a decrease in structured physical activity during the pandemic, which many parents viewed as a positive change. Parents and children indicated negative feelings due to spending less time with peers and reflected positively about spending more time with family. Parents and children expressed fear and anxiety in trying to keep their families safe from virus spread and creativity in adapting play behaviours. Findings highlight the impact of the pandemic on social friendship networks for families and a shift in activity patterns for children toward unstructured play

Improvement of RG1-VLP vaccine performance in BALB/c mice by substitution of alhydrogel with the next generation polyphosphazene adjuvant PCEP

Current human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines provide substantial protection against the most common HPV types responsible for oral and anogenital cancers, but many circulating cancer-causing types remain for which vaccine coverage is lacking. In addition, all current HPV vaccines rely on aluminum salt-based adjuvant formulations that function through unclear mechanisms with few substitutes available. In an effort to expand the toolbox of available adjuvants suitable for HPV vaccines, we compared the immunogenicity of the RG1-VLP (virus-like particle) vaccine in BALB/c mice when formulated with either the aluminum hydroxide adjuvant Alhydrogel or the novel polyphosphazene macromolecular adjuvant poly[di (carboxylatoethylphenoxy) phosphazene] (PCEP). PCEP-formulated RG1-VLPs routinely outperformed VLP/Alhydrogel in several measurements of VLP-specific humoral immunity, including consistent improvements in the magnitude of antibody (Ab) responses to both HPV16-L1 and the L2 RG1 epitope as well as neutralizing titers to HPV16 and cross-neutralization of pseudovirion (PsV) types HPV18 and HPV39. Dose-sparing studies indicated that RG1-VLPs could be reduced in dose by 75% and the presence of PCEP ensured activity comparable to a full VLP dose adjuvanted by Alhydrogel. In addition, levels of HPV16-L1 and -L2-specific Abs were achieved after two vaccinations with PCEP as adjuvant that were equivalent to or greater than levels achieved with three vaccinations with Alhydrogel alone, indicating that the presence of PCEP resulted in accelerated immune responses that could allow for a decreased dose schedule. Given the extensive clinical track record of polyphosphazenes, these data suggest that substitution of alum-based adjuvants with PCEP for the RG1-VLP vaccine could lead to rapid seropositivity requiring fewer boosts, the dose-sparing of commercial VLP-based vaccines, and the establishment of longer-lasting humoral responses to HPV

Mesothelioma Mouse Models with Mixed Genomic States of Chromosome and Microsatellite Instability

Malignant mesothelioma (MMe) is a rare malignancy originating from the linings of the pleural, peritoneal and pericardial cavities. The best-defined risk factor is exposure to carcinogenic mineral fibers (e.g., asbestos). Genomic studies have revealed that the most frequent genetic lesions in human MMe are mutations in tumor suppressor genes. Several genetically engineered mouse models have been generated by introducing the same genetic lesions found in human MMe. However, most of these models require specialized breeding facilities and long-term exposure of mice to asbestos for MMe development. Thus, an alternative model with high tumor penetrance without asbestos is urgently needed. We characterized an orthotopic model using MMe cells derived from Cdkn2a+/−;Nf2+/− mice chronically injected with asbestos. These MMe cells were tumorigenic upon intraperitoneal injection. Moreover, MMe cells showed mixed chromosome and microsatellite instability, supporting the notion that genomic instability is relevant in MMe pathogenesis. In addition, microsatellite markers were detectable in the plasma of tumor-bearing mice, indicating a potential use for early cancer detection and monitoring the effects of interventions. This orthotopic model with rapid development of MMe without asbestos exposure represents genomic instability and specific molecular targets for therapeutic or preventive interventions to enable preclinical proof of concept for the intervention in an immunocompetent setting