Is cosmology consistent?

We perform a detailed analysis of the latest CMB measurements (including BOOMERaNG, DASI, Maxima and CBI), both alone and jointly with other cosmological data sets involving, e.g., galaxy clustering and the Lyman Alpha Forest. We first address the question of whether the CMB data are internally consistent once calibration and beam uncertainties are taken into account, performing a series of statistical tests. With a few minor caveats, our answer is yes, and we compress all data into a single set of 24 bandpowers with associated covariance matrix and window functions. We then compute joint constraints on the 11 parameters of the ``standard'' adiabatic inflationary cosmological model. Out best fit model passes a series of physical consistency checks and agrees with essentially all currently available cosmological data. In addition to sharp constraints on the cosmic matter budget in good agreement with those of the BOOMERaNG, DASI and Maxima teams, we obtain a heaviest neutrino mass range 0.04-4.2 eV and the sharpest constraints to date on gravity waves which (together with preference for a slight red-tilt) favors ``small-field'' inflation models.Comment: Replaced to match accepted PRD version. 14 pages, 12 figs. Tiny changes due to smaller DASI & Maxima calibration errors. Expanded neutrino and tensor discussion, added refs, typos fixed. Combined CMB data, window and covariance matrix at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~max/consistent.html or from [email protected]

Weak Lensing and CMB: Parameter forecasts including a running spectral index

We use statistical inference theory to explore the constraints from future galaxy weak lensing (cosmic shear) surveys combined with the current CMB constraints on cosmological parameters, focusing particularly on the running of the spectral index of the primordial scalar power spectrum, $\alpha_s$. Recent papers have drawn attention to the possibility of measuring $\alpha_s$ by combining the CMB with galaxy clustering and/or the Lyman-$\alpha$ forest. Weak lensing combined with the CMB provides an alternative probe of the primordial power spectrum. We run a series of simulations with variable runnings and compare them to semi-analytic non-linear mappings to test their validity for our calculations. We find that a ``Reference'' cosmic shear survey with $f_{sky}=0.01$ and $6.6\times 10^8$ galaxies per steradian can reduce the uncertainty on $n_s$ and $\alpha_s$ by roughly a factor of 2 relative to the CMB alone. We investigate the effect of shear calibration biases on lensing by including the calibration factor as a parameter, and show that for our Reference Survey, the precision of cosmological parameter determination is only slightly degraded even if the amplitude calibration is uncertain by as much as 5%. We conclude that in the near future weak lensing surveys can supplement the CMB observations to constrain the primordial power spectrum.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, revtex4. Final form to appear in Phys Rev

The last stand before MAP: cosmological parameters from lensing, CMB and galaxy clustering

Cosmic shear measurements have now improved to the point where they deserve to be treated on par with CMB and galaxy clustering data for cosmological parameter analysis, using the full measured aperture mass variance curve rather than a mere phenomenological parametrization thereof. We perform a detailed 9-parameter analysis of recent lensing (RCS), CMB (up to Archeops) and galaxy clustering (2dF) data, both separately and jointly. CMB and 2dF data are consistent with a simple flat adiabatic scale-invariant model with Omega_Lambda=0.72+/-0.09, omega_cdm=0.115+/- 0.013, omega_b=0.024+/-0.003, and a hint of reionization around z~8. Lensing helps further tighten these constraints, but reveals tension regarding the power spectrum normalization: including the RCS survey results raises sigma8 significantly and forces other parameters to uncomfortable values. Indeed, sigma8 is emerging as the currently most controversial cosmological parameter, and we discuss possible resolutions of this sigma8 problem. We also comment on the disturbing fact that many recent analyses (including this one) obtain error bars smaller than the Fisher matrix bound. We produce a CMB power spectrum combining all existing experiments, and using it for a "MAP versus world" comparison next month will provide a powerful test of how realistic the error estimates have been in the cosmology community.Comment: Added references and Fisher error discussion. Combined CMB data, window and covariance matrix for January "MAP vs World" contest at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~max/cmblsslens.html or from [email protected]

Seasonal drought limits tree species across the Neotropics

Within the tropics, the species richness of tree communities is strongly and positively associated with precipitation. Previous research has suggested that this macroecological pattern is driven by the negative effect of water-stress on the physiological processes of most tree species. This process implies that the range limits of taxa are defined by their ability to occur under dry conditions, and thus in terms of species distributions it predicts a nested pattern of taxa distribution from wet to dry areas. However, this ‘dry-tolerance’ hypothesis has yet to be adequately tested at large spatial and taxonomic scales. Here, using a dataset of 531 inventory plots of closed canopy forest distributed across the Western Neotropics we investigated how precipitation, evaluated both as mean annual precipitation and as the maximum climatological water deficit, influences the distribution of tropical tree species, genera and families. We find that the distributions of tree taxa are indeed nested along precipitation gradients in the western Neotropics. Taxa tolerant to seasonal drought are disproportionally widespread across the precipitation gradient, with most reaching even the wettest climates sampled; however, most taxa analysed are restricted to wet areas. Our results suggest that the ‘dry tolerance’ hypothesis has broad applicability in the world's most species-rich forests. In addition, the large number of species restricted to wetter conditions strongly indicates that an increased frequency of drought could severely threaten biodiversity in this region. Overall, this study establishes a baseline for exploring how tropical forest tree composition may change in response to current and future environmental changes in this region

Geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 clades in the WHO European Region, January to June 2020

We show the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three available genomic nomenclature systems for SARS-CoV-2 to all sequence data from the WHO European Region available during the COVID-19 pandemic until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation. We provide a comparison of the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.Peer reviewe

The AURORA Study: a longitudinal, multimodal library of brain biology and function after traumatic stress exposure

Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) are common among civilian trauma survivors and military veterans. These APNS, as traditionally classified, include posttraumatic stress, postconcussion syndrome, depression, and regional or widespread pain. Traditional classifications have come to hamper scientific progress because they artificially fragment APNS into siloed, syndromic diagnoses unmoored to discrete components of brain functioning and studied in isolation. These limitations in classification and ontology slow the discovery of pathophysiologic mechanisms, biobehavioral markers, risk prediction tools, and preventive/treatment interventions. Progress in overcoming these limitations has been challenging because such progress would require studies that both evaluate a broad spectrum of posttraumatic sequelae (to overcome fragmentation) and also perform in-depth biobehavioral evaluation (to index sequelae to domains of brain function). This article summarizes the methods of the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA (AURORA) Study. AURORA conducts a large-scale (n = 5000 target sample) in-depth assessment of APNS development using a state-of-the-art battery of self-report, neurocognitive, physiologic, digital phenotyping, psychophysical, neuroimaging, and genomic assessments, beginning in the early aftermath of trauma and continuing for 1 year. The goals of AURORA are to achieve improved phenotypes, prediction tools, and understanding of molecular mechanisms to inform the future development and testing of preventive and treatment interventions

Riociguat treatment in patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: Final safety data from the EXPERT registry

Objective: The soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator riociguat is approved for the treatment of adult patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable or persistent/recurrent chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) following Phase

Para-infectious brain injury in COVID-19 persists at follow-up despite attenuated cytokine and autoantibody responses

To understand neurological complications of COVID-19 better both acutely and for recovery, we measured markers of brain injury, inflammatory mediators, and autoantibodies in 203 hospitalised participants; 111 with acute sera (1–11 days post-admission) and 92 convalescent sera (56 with COVID-19-associated neurological diagnoses). Here we show that compared to 60 uninfected controls, tTau, GFAP, NfL, and UCH-L1 are increased with COVID-19 infection at acute timepoints and NfL and GFAP are significantly higher in participants with neurological complications. Inflammatory mediators (IL-6, IL-12p40, HGF, M-CSF, CCL2, and IL-1RA) are associated with both altered consciousness and markers of brain injury. Autoantibodies are more common in COVID-19 than controls and some (including against MYL7, UCH-L1, and GRIN3B) are more frequent with altered consciousness. Additionally, convalescent participants with neurological complications show elevated GFAP and NfL, unrelated to attenuated systemic inflammatory mediators and to autoantibody responses. Overall, neurological complications of COVID-19 are associated with evidence of neuroglial injury in both acute and late disease and these correlate with dysregulated innate and adaptive immune responses acutely