U.S. stock market interaction network as learned by the Boltzmann Machine

We study historical dynamics of joint equilibrium distribution of stock returns in the U.S. stock market using the Boltzmann distribution model being parametrized by external fields and pairwise couplings. Within Boltzmann learning framework for statistical inference, we analyze historical behavior of the parameters inferred using exact and approximate learning algorithms. Since the model and inference methods require use of binary variables, effect of this mapping of continuous returns to the discrete domain is studied. The presented analysis shows that binarization preserves market correlation structure. Properties of distributions of external fields and couplings as well as industry sector clustering structure are studied for different historical dates and moving window sizes. We found that a heavy positive tail in the distribution of couplings is responsible for the sparse market clustering structure. We also show that discrepancies between the model parameters might be used as a precursor of financial instabilities.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figures, 1 tabl

Dietary Fiber and Saturated Fat Intake Associations with Cardiovascular Disease Differ by Sex in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to examine associations between intake of macronutrients and dietary fiber and incident ischemic cardiovascular disease (iCVD) in men and women. METHODS: We used data from 8,139 male and 12,535 female participants (aged 44-73 y) of the Swedish population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. The participants were without history of CVD and diabetes mellitus, and had reported stable dietary habits in the study questionnaire. Diet was assessed by a validated modified diet history method, combining a 7-d registration of cooked meals and cold beverages, a 168-item food questionnaire (covering other foods and meal patterns), and a 1-hour diet interview. Sociodemographic and lifestyle data were collected by questionnaire. iCVD cases, which included coronary events (myocardial infarctions or deaths from chronic ischemic heart disease) and ischemic strokes, were ascertained via national and local registries. Nutrient-disease associations were examined by multivariate Cox regressions. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, we identified 1,089 male and 687 female iCVD cases. High fiber intakes were associated with lower incidence rates of iCVD in women and of ischemic stroke in men. In post-hoc analysis, we discovered statistically significant interactions between intake of fiber and saturated fat; these interactions also differed between men and women (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this well-defined population, a high fiber intake was associated with lower risk of iCVD, but there were no robust associations between other macronutrients and iCVD risk. Judging from this study, gender-specific nutrient analysis may be preferable in epidemiology

Evaluation of serum CEA, CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of colorectal cancer using longitudinal preclinical samples

Blood-borne biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) could markedly increase screening uptake. The aim of this study was to evaluate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), CYFRA21-1 and CA125 for the early detection of CRC in an asymptomatic cohort

Asymmetry through time dependency

Given a single network of interactions, asymmetry arises when the links are directed. For example, if protein A upregulates protein B and protein B upregulates protein C, then (in the absence of any further relationships between them) A may affect C but not vice versa. This type of imbalance is reflected in the associated adjacency matrix, which will lack symmetry. A different type of imbalance can arise when interactions appear and disappear over time. If A meets B today and B meets C tomorrow, then (in the absence of any further relationships between them) A may pass a message or disease to C, but not vice versa. Hence, even when each interaction is a two-way exchange, the effect of time ordering can introduce asymmetry. This observation is very closely related to the fact that matrix multiplication is not commutative. In this work, we describe a method that has been designed to reveal asymmetry in static networks and show how it may be combined with a measure that summarizes the potential information flow between nodes in the temporal case. This results in a new method that quantifies the asymmetry arising through time ordering. We show by example that the new tool can be used to visualize and quantify the amount of asymmetry caused by the arrow of time

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in erythropoietic protoporphyria

Background Vitamin D, produced by the action of sunlight on skin, is an important hormone for calcium homeostasis and has been implicated as tumour-protective agent. Some previous studies of photosensitive patients who actively avoid sunlight have failed to show convincing evidence of vitamin D insufficiency. Objectives The aim of this study was to characterize the vitamin D status of a large cohort of patients with erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP). Methods U.K. patients with EPP were recruited prospectively and seen locally by a single study investigator. A blood sample was taken for vitamin D assay. All blood analyses were performed in the same laboratory. Results A cohort of 201 patients with known EPP was seen over a 7-month period between January and July. Thirty-four patients (17%) were deficient in vitamin D and 126 (63%) had insufficient vitamin D. Both insufficiency and deficiency were significantly associated with the total erythrocyte protoporphyrin concentration and inversely with the time in minutes to the onset of symptoms following sunlight exposure. Conclusions This is the first report of significant levels of vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency in a large cohort of patients with a photodermatosis. Such individuals are at risk of associated adverse events. In future, clinicians should consider monitoring 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and instigating oral supplementation or dietary advice if appropriate

Erythropoiesis and iron metabolism in dominant erythropoietic protoporphyria

Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) results from deficiency of ferrochelatase (FECH). Accumulation of protoporphyrin IX causes life-long acute photosensitivity. Microcytic anemia occurs in 20% to 60% of patients. We investigated 178 patients with dominant EPP confirmed by molecular analysis. Erythropoiesis was impaired in all patients; all had a downward shift in hemoglobin (Hb), and the mean decreased in males by 12 g/L (1.2 g/dL). By World Health Organization criteria, 48% of women and 33% of men were anemic. Iron stores, assessed by serum ferritin (sFn), were decreased by two-thirds, but normal serum soluble transferrin receptor-1 and iron concentrations suggested that erythropoiesis was not limited by iron supply. FECH deficiency in EPP appears to lead to a steady state in which decreased erythropoiesis is matched by reduced iron absorption and supply. This response may in part be mediated by protoporphyrin, but we found no correlation between erythrocyte protoporphyrin and Hb, sFn, total iron-binding capacity, or transferrin saturation

Molecular epidemiology of erythropoietic protoporphyria in the U.K.

Background: Erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is a cutaneous porphyria caused by mutations in the ferrochelatase (FECH) or, less frequently, the delta-aminolaevulinate synthase 2 (ALAS2) gene. Predictive genetic counselling requires accurate molecular diagnosis and knowledge of patterns of inheritance. Objectives: To investigate the molecular epidemiology of EPP in the U.K. Methods: DNA samples from 191 unrelated patients resident in the U.K. were analysed for mutations in the FECH and ALAS2 genes and for the FECH IVS3-48 dimorphism. Results: Mutations were identified in 179 (94%) patients. Most (169; 94%) had a FECH mutation on one allele and were classified as having pseudodominant EPP (psdEPP); seven (4%) patients had FECH mutations on both alleles (autosomal recessive EPP) and three (2%) patients had ALAS2 mutations (X-linked dominant protoporphyria). The FECH IVS3-48C allele was strongly associated with psdEPP and with the absence of mutations at the FECH or ALAS2 loci. Fifty-six FECH mutations were identified, 19 being previously unreported. Missense mutations were predominant in autosomal recessive EPP (82%) but not in psdEPP (32%). One mutation (c.314 + 2T>G) was present in 41 (24%) of EPP families, most of whom appeared to be descended from a common ancestor resident in the north of England. Conclusions: These data define the prevalence and molecular epidemiology of each type of EPP in the U.K