Projected marine heatwaves in the 21st century and the potential for ecological impact

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of “anthropogenic emergence,” with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.This research was supported by the Australian Research Council grants CE170100023 and FT170100106, Natural Environment Research Council International Opportunity Fund NE/N00678X/1, National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255, and Brian Mason (Impacts of an unprecedented marine heatwave). This project was partially supported through funding from the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Mortality Burden of Heatwaves in Sydney, Australia Is Exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island and Climate Change: Can Tree Cover Help Mitigate the Health Impacts?

Heatwaves are associated with increased mortality and are exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Thus, to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation, we quantified the mortality burden of historical heatwave days in Sydney, Australia, assessed the contribution of the UHI effect and used climate change projection data to estimate future health impacts. We also assessed the potential for tree cover to mitigate against the UHI effect. Mortality (2006–2018) records were linked with census population data, weather observations (1997–2016) and climate change projections to 2100. Heatwave-attributable excess deaths were calculated based on risk estimates from a published heatwave study of Sydney. High resolution satellite observations of UHI air temperature excesses and green cover were used to determine associated effects on heat-related mortality. These data show that >90% of heatwave days would not breach heatwave thresholds in Sydney if there were no UHI effect and that numbers of heatwave days could increase fourfold under the most extreme climate change scenario. We found that tree canopy reduces urban heat, and that widespread tree planting could offset the increases in heat-attributable deaths as climate warming progresses.Timothy B. Chaston, Richard A. Broome, Nathan Cooper, Gerard Duck, Christy Geromboux, Yuming Guo, Fei Ji, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Ying Zhang, Gnanadarsha S. Dissanayake, Geoffrey G. Morgan, and Ivan C. Haniga

Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sen Gupta, A., Thomsen, M., Benthuysen, J. A., Hobday, A. J., Oliver, E., Alexander, L. V., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., Holbrook, N. J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Moore, P. J., Rodrigues, R. R., Scannell, H. A., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Wernberg, T., & Smale, D. A. Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19359. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75445-3.Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.Concepts and analyses were developed during three workshops organized by an international working group on marine heatwaves (https://www.marineheatwaves.org) funded by a University of Western Australia Research Collaboration Award and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) International Opportunity Fund (NE/N00678X/1). D.A.S. is supported by a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/S032827/1). The Australian Research Council supported T.W. (FT110100174 and DP170100023) and A.S.T. (FT160100495). N.J.H. and L.V.A. are supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). M.S.T was supported by the Brian Mason Trust. P.J.M. is supported by a Marie Curie Career Integration Grant (PCIG10-GA-2011–303685) and a Natural Environment Research Council (UK) Grant (NE/J024082/1). E.C.J.O. was supported by National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant RGPIN-2018-05255 and Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR) project 1-02-02-059.1. C.C.U. acknowledges financial support through the Early Career Scientist Endowed Fund, George E. Thibault Early Career Scientist Fund, and The Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation at WHOI. M.G.D. received funding by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 grant reference RYC-2017-22964. NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heat waves across central United States

International audienceThe severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socioeconomic and ecological disaster over North America's Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the widespread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves

As part of a special issue on natural hazards, this paper reviews the current state of scientific knowledge of Australian heatwaves. Over recent years, progress has been made in understanding both the causes of and changes to heatwaves. Relationships between atmospheric heatwaves and large-scale and synoptic variability have been identified, with increasing trends in heatwave intensity, frequency and duration projected to continue throughout the 21st century. However, more research is required to further our understanding of the dynamical interactions of atmospheric heatwaves, particularly with the land surface. Research into marine heatwaves is still in its infancy, with little known about driving mechanisms, and observed and future changes. In order to address these knowledge gaps, recommendations include: focusing on a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric heatwave dynamics; understanding links with droughts; working towards a unified measurement framework; and investigating observed and future trends in marine heatwaves. Such work requires comprehensive and long-term collaboration activities. However, benefits will extend to the international community, thus addressing global grand challenges surrounding these extreme events

Genomic Structure of and Genome-Wide Recombination in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae S288C Progenitor Isolate EM93

The diploid isolate EM93 is the main ancestor to the widely used Saccharomyces cerevisiae haploid laboratory strain, S288C. In this study, we generate a high-resolution overview of the genetic differences between EM93 and S288C. We show that EM93 is heterozygous for >45,000 polymorphisms, including large sequence polymorphisms, such as deletions and a Saccharomyces paradoxus introgression. We also find that many large sequence polymorphisms (LSPs) are associated with Ty-elements and sub-telomeric regions. We identified 2,965 genetic markers, which we then used to genotype 120 EM93 tetrads. In addition to deducing the structures of all EM93 chromosomes, we estimate that the average EM93 meiosis produces 144 detectable recombination events, consisting of 87 crossover and 31 non-crossover gene conversion events. Of the 50 polymorphisms showing the highest levels of non-crossover gene conversions, only three deviated from parity, all of which were near heterozygous LSPs. We find that non-telomeric heterozygous LSPs significantly reduce meiotic recombination in adjacent intervals, while sub-telomeric LSPs have no discernable effect on recombination. We identified 203 recombination hotspots, relatively few of which are hot for both non-crossover gene conversions and crossovers. Strikingly, we find that recombination hotspots show limited conservation. Some novel hotspots are found adjacent to heterozygous LSPs that eliminate other hotspots, suggesting that hotspots may appear and disappear relatively rapidly

Blood Parasites in Owls with Conservation Implications for the Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis)

The three subspecies of Spotted Owl (Northern, Strix occidentalis caurina; California, S. o. occidentalis; and Mexican, S. o. lucida) are all threatened by habitat loss and range expansion of the Barred Owl (S. varia). An unaddressed threat is whether Barred Owls could be a source of novel strains of disease such as avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.) or other blood parasites potentially harmful for Spotted Owls. Although Barred Owls commonly harbor Plasmodium infections, these parasites have not been documented in the Spotted Owl. We screened 111 Spotted Owls, 44 Barred Owls, and 387 owls of nine other species for haemosporidian parasites (Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium, and Haemoproteus spp.). California Spotted Owls had the greatest number of simultaneous multi-species infections (44%). Additionally, sequencing results revealed that the Northern and California Spotted Owl subspecies together had the highest number of Leucocytozoon parasite lineages (n = 17) and unique lineages (n = 12). This high level of sequence diversity is significant because only one Leucocytozoon species (L. danilewskyi) has been accepted as valid among all owls, suggesting that L. danilewskyi is a cryptic species. Furthermore, a Plasmodium parasite was documented in a Northern Spotted Owl for the first time. West Coast Barred Owls had a lower prevalence of infection (15%) when compared to sympatric Spotted Owls (S. o. caurina 52%, S. o. occidentalis 79%) and Barred Owls from the historic range (61%). Consequently, Barred Owls on the West Coast may have a competitive advantage over the potentially immune compromised Spotted Owls

Pelvic trauma : WSES classification and guidelines

Complex pelvic injuries are among the most dangerous and deadly trauma related lesions. Different classification systems exist, some are based on the mechanism of injury, some on anatomic patterns and some are focusing on the resulting instability requiring operative fixation. The optimal treatment strategy, however, should keep into consideration the hemodynamic status, the anatomic impairment of pelvic ring function and the associated injuries. The management of pelvic trauma patients aims definitively to restore the homeostasis and the normal physiopathology associated to the mechanical stability of the pelvic ring. Thus the management of pelvic trauma must be multidisciplinary and should be ultimately based on the physiology of the patient and the anatomy of the injury. This paper presents the World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) classification of pelvic trauma and the management Guidelines.Peer reviewe