Advancing the study of driving forces of landscape change

Over the past 25 years, the study of driving forces of landscape change has developed into a central theme in land change science by contributing to theory development, promoting the analysis of causation of change and gaining insights into how landscape development could be steered into a societally more desirable direction. Based on this progress, we designate important research avenues, reviewing critical challenges forming the base for advancing the study of driving forces of landscape change and addressing the question on how the study of driving forces can contribute to system transformative research. For each of the research avenues, we describe the current dominant approach and provide some specific ways of advancing both the conceptualization and the research methods. Together, advancing on these research avenues will promote a more social-ecological systems perspective to the study of driving forces of landscape change.ISSN:1747-4248ISSN:1747-423

Safety and efficacy of subcutaneous tanezumab in patients with knee or hip osteoarthritis

Background/objective: The objective of this study was to investigate the safety and efficacy of subcutaneous (SC) and intravenous (IV) tanezumab administration in osteoarthritis (OA) patients. Materials and methods: Study 1027 (NCT01089725), a placebo-controlled trial, evaluated the efficacy of SC tanezumab (ie, 2.5, 5, and 10 mg) and the therapeutic equivalence of 10 mg tanezumab given subcutaneously versus intravenously every 8 weeks in the symptomatic treatment of OA. Coprimary endpoints were: change from baseline in Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis index (WOMAC) Pain and Physical Function indices, and Patient\u27s Global Assessment (PGA) of OA. Study 1043 (NCT00994890) was a long-term, noncontrolled safety study of tanezumab (ie, 2.5, 5, and 10 mg) subcutaneously administered every 8 weeks. Both studies were discontinued prematurely due to a US Food and Drug Administration partial clinical hold. Results: Due to the clinical hold, Study 1027 was underpowered, and no statistical analyses were performed. Mean (standard error [SE]) change from baseline to week 8 in WOMAC Pain in tanezumab groups ranged from -3.59 (0.26) to -3.89 (0.32), versus -2.74 (0.25) with placebo. Mean (SE) change from baseline to week 8 in WOMAC Physical Function ranged from -3.13 (0.25) to -3.51 (0.28) with tanezumab and was -2.26 (0.24) with placebo. PGA mean (SE) change from baseline to week 8 ranged from -0.90 (0.11) to -1.08 (0.12) with tanezumab and was -0.78 (0.10) with placebo. Similar effectiveness was associated with tanezumab in Study 1043. Few patients in either study (1.4%-5.2%) discontinued due to adverse events. Five patients required total joint replacements in Study 1027 (placebo, n=2 [2.8%]; tanezumab 2.5 mg, n=3 [4.1%]) and 34 patients in Study 1043 (tanezumab 2.5 mg, n=11 [4.8%]; tanezumab 5 mg, n=8 [3.6%]; tanezumab 10 mg, n=15 [6.6%]). Conclusion: Preliminary results show similar efficacy and safety for both SC and IV administration of tanezumab based on the direct comparisons reported here and indirect comparisons with published results, confirming pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling predictions

Differential responsiveness to immunoablative therapy in refractory rheumatoid arthritis is associated with level and avidity of anti-cyclic citrullinated protein autoantibodies: a case study

In order to identify pathogenic correlates of refractory rheumatoid arthritis (RA), antibodies against anti-cyclic citrullinated protein (ACPAs) were investigated in RA patients in whom the dysregulated immune system had been ablated by high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) and autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Six patients with refractory RA were extensively characterized in terms of levels of total immunoglobulins, RA-specific autoantibodies (ACPAs and rheumatoid factor) and antibodies against rubella, tetanus toxoid (TT) and phosphorylcholine before and after HDC plus HSCT. Additionally, the avidity of ACPAs was measured before and after treatment and compared with the avidity of TT antibodies following repeated immunizations. Synovial biopsies were obtained by arthroscopy before HDC plus HSCT, and analyzed by immunohistochemistry. In the three patients with clinically long-lasting responses to HDC plus HSCT (median 423 days), significant reductions in ACPA-IgG levels after therapy were observed (median level dropped from 215 to 34 arbitrary units/ml; P = 0.05). In contrast, stable ACPA-IgG levels were observed in three patients who relapsed shortly after HDC plus HSCT (median of 67 days). Clinical responders had ACPA-IgG of lower avidity (r = 0.75; P = 0.08) and higher degree of inflammation histologically (r = 0.73; P = 0.09). Relapse (after 38 to 530 days) in all patients was preceded by rising levels of low avidity ACPA-IgG (after 30 to 388 days), in contrast to the stable titres of high avidity TT antibodies. In conclusion, humoral autoimmune responses were differentially modulated by immunoablative therapy in patients with synovial inflammation and low avidity ACPA-IgG autoantibodies as compared with patients with high levels of high avidity ACPA-IgG. The distinct clinical disease course after immunoablative therapy based on levels and avidity of ACPA-IgG indicates that refractory RA is not a single disease entity

The Role of Organizational Control Systems in Employees’ Organizational Trust and Performance Outcomes

This study examined how organizational control is related to employees’ organizational trust. We specifically focus on how different forms of control (process, outcome, and normative) relate to employees’ trust in their employing organizations and examine whether such trust in turn relates positively to employee job performance (task performance and organizational citizenship behavior). In addition, and in response to the recommendations of past research, we examined these relationships in a high control and compliance-based cultural context. Using data from 105 employee–supervisor dyads from professional services firms in Singapore, we find support for our hypothesized model. The implications of the results for theory and practice, and directions for future research, are discussed.Economics of Technology and Innovatio

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Predicting Long-term Disease-free Survival after Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma:A Nationwide Cohort Study

Objective: To develop a prediction model for long-term (≥5 years) disease-free survival (DFS) after the resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Background: Despite high recurrence rates, 10% of patients have long-term DFS after PDAC resection. A model to predict long-term DFS may aid individualized prognostication and shared decision-making. Methods: This nationwide cohort study included all consecutive patients who underwent PDAC resection in the Netherlands (2014-2016). The best-performing prognostic model was selected by Cox-proportional hazard analysis and Akaike's Information Criterion, presented by hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Internal validation was performed, and discrimination and calibration indices were assessed. Results: In all, 836 patients with a median follow-up of 67 months (interquartile range 51-79) were analyzed. Long-term DFS was seen in 118 patients (14%). Factors predictive of long-term DFS were low preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (logarithmic; HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.32), no vascular resection (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.12-1.58), T1 or T2 tumor stage (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04, and HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.98-1.39, respectively), well/moderate tumor differentiation (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.22-1.68), absence of perineural and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.42; 95% CI 1.11-1.81 and HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.96-1.36, respectively), N0 or N1 nodal status (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.54-2.40, and HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.11-1.60, respectively), R0 resection margin status (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.07-1.46), no major complications (HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.97-1.35) and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.47-2.06). Moderate performance (concordance index 0.68) with adequate calibration (slope 0.99) was achieved. Conclusions: The developed prediction model, readily available at www.pancreascalculator.com, can be used to estimate the probability of long-term DFS after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.</p

Normalisation to Blood Activity Is Required for the Accurate Quantification of Na/I Symporter Ectopic Expression by SPECT/CT in Individual Subjects

The utilisation of the Na/I symporter (NIS) and associated radiotracers as a reporter system for imaging gene expression is now reaching the clinical setting in cancer gene therapy applications. However, a formal assessment of the methodology in terms of normalisation of the data still remains to be performed, particularly in the context of the assessment of activities in individual subjects in longitudinal studies. In this context, we administered to mice a recombinant, replication-incompetent adenovirus encoding rat NIS, or a human colorectal carcinoma cell line (HT29) encoding mouse NIS. We used 99mTc pertechnetate as a radiotracer for SPECT/CT imaging to determine the pattern of ectopic NIS expression in longitudinal kinetic studies. Some animals of the cohort were culled and NIS expression was measured by quantitative RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. The radioactive content of some liver biopsies was also measured ex vivo. Our results show that in longitudinal studies involving datasets taken from individual mice, the presentation of non-normalised data (activity expressed as %ID/g or %ID/cc) leads to ‘noisy’, and sometimes incoherent, results. This variability is due to the fact that the blood pertechnetate concentration can vary up to three-fold from day to day. Normalisation of these data with blood activities corrects for these inconsistencies. We advocate that, blood pertechnetate activity should be determined and used to normalise the activity measured in the organ/region of interest that expresses NIS ectopically. Considering that NIS imaging has already reached the clinical setting in the context of cancer gene therapy, this normalisation may be essential in order to obtain accurate and predictive information in future longitudinal clinical studies in biotherapy

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)