Crises financeiras: desta vez não é diferente

Este artículo presenta una discusión sobre las principales características teóricas de las diferentes tipologías de crisis financieras. Para ello, se hace una explicación detallada del funcionamiento del sistema financiero moderno, la historia reciente de la macroeconomía y las propiedades conceptuales y empíricas de las crisis financieras. Se concluye que un banco central está limitado para actuar contra burbujas de crédito y que los modelos macroeconómicos actuales no pueden explicar correctamente las interacciones dentro los mercados financieros. Asimismo, se deduce la posibilidad de que las economías emergentes en el ámbito mundial sufran crisis financieras en los tiempos próximos.Este artigo apresenta uma discussão sobre as principais características teóricas dos diferentes tipos de crises financeiras. Com esse objetivo em mente, uma explicação detalhada é dada sobre o funcionamento do sistema financeiro moderno, a história recente da macroeconomia e as propriedades conceituais e empíricas das crises financeiras. Dessa forma, conclui-se que um banco central é limitado a agir contra as bolhas de crédito e que os modelos macroeconômicos atuais não conseguem explicar corretamente as interações dentro dos mercados financeiros. Além disso, deduz-se que economias emergentes em todo o mundo sofram crise financeira nos próximos meses.This article discusses the main theoretical characteristics of several types of financial crises. With this objective in mind, it presents a detailed explanation of the functioning of the modern financial system, recent history of macroeconomics, and the conceptual and empirical properties of financial crises. It concludes that a central bank is limited to act against credit bubbles and that current macroeconomic models cannot explain correctly interactions in financial markets. In addition, it deduces the possibility that emerging economies worldwide will experience financial crisis in the coming months

Desigualdad, crecimiento y desarrollo económico en América Latina

Considering the above context, the objective of the article is to identify the causal relationships between income inequality, levels of democracy and economic growth in Latin America from 1996 to 2014. With this objective in mind, fixed and random effects models are estimated with a periodicity of growth episodes of two, five and ten years to analyze the impact of the variables of interest in different time horizons. The countries in the sample are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela. The results indicate that increments in the levels of democracy have a negative effect on the growth of GDP per capita in the two-year growth episodes, to later become positive in the fifth year and reach its maximum effect ten years later. This highlights the importance of the stability of political regimes for a country to reach a state of stationary growth. The results of the Gini variable show that higher levels of income inequality lead to lower economic growth. Its negative impact reaches its maximum five years after the shock that triggered the increase in inequality.Considerando el contexto anterior, el objetivo del artículo es identificar las relaciones causales entre la desigualdad de ingresos, los niveles de democracia y el crecimiento económico en América Latina de 1996 a 2014. Con este objetivo en mente, se estiman modelos de efectos fijos y aleatorios con una periodicidad de episodios de crecimiento de dos, cinco y diez años para analizar el impacto de las variables de interés en diferentes horizontes temporales. Los países de la muestra son Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, República Dominicana, Ecuador, El Salvador, Jamaica, México, Panamá, Perú y Venezuela. Los resultados indican que los incrementos en los niveles de democracia tienen un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento del PIB per cápita en los episodios de crecimiento de dos años, para luego volverse positivo en el quinto año y alcanzar su efecto máximo diez años después. Esto resalta  la importancia de la  estabilidad de los regímenes políticos para que un país alcance un estado de crecimiento estacionario. Los resultados de la variable Gini muestran que niveles más altos de desigualdad de ingresos conducen a un menor crecimiento económico. Su impacto negativo alcanza su máximo cinco años después del choque que desencadenó el aumento de la desigualdad.&nbsp

A complex toolbox for the 21st century economist

La gran recesión mostró los límites de los modelos utilizados en política económica, especialmente los modelos de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico (EGDE) y de equilibrio general computable (EGC). Este documento presenta un debate sobre los límites que los modelos EDGE y EGC tienen en la formulación de políticas económicas; también muestra las ventajas que el marco teórico y metodológico de la economia de la complejidad podrían traer al análisis macroeconómico. Este documento se divide en tres secciones. La primera hace un análisis crítico de los modelos EDGE y EGC. La segunda sección se centra en los fundamentos de la economia de la complejidad y en el proceso de aprendizaje en entornos complejos. En la última sección, se discuten las ventajas que la economia de la complejidad podría traer al diseño de políticas públicas y la necesidad de explorar nuevas metodologías que permitan a los diseñadores de políticas alcanzar sus objetivos. The Great Recession showed the limits of the models used to make economic policy, especially those of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This paper presents a discussion of the limits that DSEG or CGE models have in the design of economic policies; it also shows the advantages that the theoretical and methodological framework of complexity economics could bring to macroeconomic analysis. This paper is divided in three sections. The first does a critical analysis of the DSGE and CGE models used in policymaking. The second section is focused in the fundamentals of complexity economics and the learning process in complex environments. In the last section, it will be discussed the advantages that complexity economics can bring to the design of public policies and the need to explore new methodologies that give policy designers greater freedom to achieve their objectives

Inferencia estadística módulo de regresión lineal simple

La utilización del modelo de regresión lineal en los procesos relacionados con el análisis de datos demanda el conocimiento objetivo e instrumentación de la relación funcional de variables, el coeficiente de determinación y de correlación y la prueba de hipótesis como pilares fundamentales para verificar e interpretar su significancia estadística en el intervalo de confianza determinado. La presentación específica de los temas relacionados con el modelo de regresión lineal, el análisis de regresión, el uso de la ecuación de regresión como instrumento para estimar y predecir y la consideración del análisis de residuales ha sido realizada tomando como referente el estudio de problemas reales definidos en los entornos de la economía, la administración y la salud, utilizando como plataforma de apoyo la hoja de cálculo Excel®

Global food systems: addressing malnutrition through sustainable system pathways

Addressing malnutrition (in all its forms) whilst developing a global food system compatible with environmental sustainability remains one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. The current framing of our food systems fails to fully capture the inequities in production, distribution, efficiency and sufficiency of all components necessary to end malnutrition. This research presents a holistic, scalable and replicable framework to model food system pathways (across all essential nutritional components, including macronutrients, micronutrients and amino acids), providing quantification of production, losses, allocation and conversions at all stages of the value chain. Furthermore, this framework attempts to translate current food metrics—often presented in tonnage or absolute terms—into daily per capita figures to provide important context for how this translates into food security and nutrition. This framework can be applied at global, regional and national levels. Here, this model is first presented at a global level and then focuses on India as a national-level example. Results highlight that, at a global level, we produce the equivalent of 5800 kilocalories and 170 grams of protein per person per day through crops alone. However, major system inefficiencies mean that less than half of crop calories and protein are delivered (or converted) for final food supply. Pathway inefficiencies are even more acute for micronutrients; more than 60% of all essential micronutrients assessed in this study are lost between production and consumer-available phases of the food supply system. Globally we find very large inequalities in per capita levels of food production, ranging from 19,000 kilocalories (729 grams of protein) per person per day in North America to 3300 kilocalories (80 grams of protein) in Africa. Large variations are also seen in terms of food system efficiency, ranging from 15-20% in North America to 80-90% in Africa. Understanding regional inefficiencies, inequalities and trade imbalances will be crucial to meet the needs of a growing global population. This case is exemplified in India-specific framework results. India’s domestic production capacity would result in severe malnutrition across a large proportion (>60%) of the population (even under ambitious yield and waste reduction scenarios) in 2030/50. This shortfall will have to be addressed through optimised intervention and trade developments. This work also explores a number of solutions which couple improved nutritional outcomes with sustainability. Analyses of global and national nutritional guidelines conclude that most are incompatible with climate targets; the recommended USA or Australian diet provides minimal emissions savings relative to the business-as-usual diet in 2050. Low-cost, high-quality protein will remain a crucial element in developing an effective and sustainable food system. This research explores the potential of two sources. Results find that meat substitute products have significant health and emission benefits, but are strongly sensitive to both price and consumer acceptability. The environmental impact of aquaculture is strongly species-dependent. This study provides the first quantification of global greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture, estimated to be 227±61 MtCO2e (approximately 3-4% of total livestock emissions). This is projected to increase to 365±99MtCO2e by 2030

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{$6\times 10^{19}$eV}. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than $3.1^\circ$ from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron $12^{\rm th}$ catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is $(38^{+7}_{-6})$, compared with $21$ expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of $(69^{+11}_{-13})$. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201

The exposure of the hybrid detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It consists of a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level and a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The "hybrid" detection mode combines the information from the two subsystems. We describe the determination of the hybrid exposure for events observed by the fluorescence telescopes in coincidence with at least one water-Cherenkov detector of the surface array. A detailed knowledge of the time dependence of the detection operations is crucial for an accurate evaluation of the exposure. We discuss the relevance of monitoring data collected during operations, such as the status of the fluorescence detector, background light and atmospheric conditions, that are used in both simulation and reconstruction.Comment: Paper accepted by Astroparticle Physic

The Pierre Auger Observatory III: Other Astrophysical Observations

Astrophysical observations of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays with the Pierre Auger ObservatoryComment: Contributions to the 32nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Beijing, China, August 201

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation