Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data

We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the dataset alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time-series. A longer dataset may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson´s classical statistical paradox, in that straight-forward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful, but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act.Fil: Scheer, Jurgen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentin

Aerosols' influence on the interplay between condensation, evaporation and rain in warm cumulus cloud

International audienceA numerical cloud model is used to study the influence of aerosol on the microphysics and dynamics of moderate-sized, coastal, convective clouds that develop under the same meteorological conditions. The results show that polluted convective clouds start their precipitation later and precipitate less than clean clouds but produce larger rain drops. The evaporation process is more significant at the margins of the polluted clouds (compared to the clean cloud) due to a higher drop surface area to volume ratio and it is mostly from small drops. It was found that the formation of larger raindrops in the polluted cloud is due to a more efficient collection process

Limb sounders tracking topographic gravity wave activity from the stratosphere to the ionosphere around midlatitude Andes

Several studies have shown that the surroundings of the highest Andes mountains at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere exhibit gravity waves (GWs) generated by diverse sources which may traverse the troposphere and then penetrate the upper layers if conditions are favorable. There is a specific latitude band where that mountain range is nearly perfectly aligned with the north‐south direction, which favors the generation of wavefronts parallel to this orientation. This fact may allow an optimization of procedures to identify topographic GW in some of the observations. We analyze data per season to the east and west of these Andes latitudes to find possible significant differences in GW activity between both sectors. GW effects generated by topography and convection are expected essentially on the eastern side. We use satellite data from two different limb sounding methods: the Global Positioning System radio occultation (RO) technique and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument, which are complementary with respect to the height intervals, in order to study the effects of GW from the stratosphere to the ionosphere. Activity becomes quantified by the GW average potential energy in the stratosphere and mesosphere and by the electron density variance content in the ionosphere. Consistent larger GW activity on the eastern sector is observed from the stratosphere to the ionosphere (night values). However, this fact remains statistically significant at the 90% significance level only during winter, when GWs generated by topography dominate the eastern sector. On the contrary, it is usually assumed that orographic GWs have nearly zero horizontal phase speed and will therefore probably be filtered at some height in the neutral atmosphere. However, this scheme relies on the assumption that the wind is uniform and constant. Our results also suggest that it is advisable to separate night and day cases to study GWs in the ionosphere, as it is more difficult to find significant statistical differences during daytime. This may happen because perturbations induced by GWs during daytime are more likely to occur in a disturbed environment that may hinder the identification of the waves.Fil: Alexander, Pedro Manfredo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: de la Torre, Alejandro. Universidad Austral. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Schmidt, T.. German Research Centre for Geosciences; AlemaniaFil: Llamedo Soria, Pablo Martin. Universidad Austral. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Hierro, Rodrigo Federico. Universidad Austral. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Z boson production in p+Pb collisions at sNN√=5.02 TeV measured with the ATLAS detector

The ATLAS Collaboration has measured the inclusive production of Z bosons via their decays into electron and muon pairs in p+Pb collisions at √ sNN = 5.02 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. The measurements are made using data corresponding to integrated luminosities of 29.4 nb−1 and 28.1 nb−1 for Z → ee and Z → µµ, respectively. The results from the two channels are consistent and combined to obtain a cross section times the Z → `` branching ratio, integrated over the rapidity region |y ∗ Z | < 3.5, of 139.8 ± 4.8 (stat.) ± 6.2 (syst.) ± 3.8 (lumi.) nb. Differential cross sections are presented as functions of the Z boson rapidity and transverse momentum, and compared with models based on parton distributions both with and without nuclear corrections. The centrality dependence of Z boson production in p+Pb collisions is measured and analyzed within the framework of a standard Glauber model and the model’s extension for fluctuations of the underlying nucleon-nucleon scattering cross sectionFil: Aad, G.. Aix-Marseille Université; FranciaFil: Abbott, B.. Oklahoma State University; Estados UnidosFil: Abdallah, J.. Academia Sinica; ChinaFil: Abdinov, O.. Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences; AzerbaiyánFil: Aben, R.. University of Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Alconada Verzini, María Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Alonso, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Arduh, Francisco Anuar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Dova, Maria Teresa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Monticelli, Fernando Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Wahlberg, Hernan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Otero y Garzon, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Piegaia, Ricardo Nestor. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Reisin, Hernan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Sacerdoti, Sabrina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Zieminska, D.. Indiana University; Estados UnidosFil: Zimine, N. I.. Joint Institute for Nuclear Research ; RusiaFil: Zimmermann, C.. Universität Mainz; AlemaniaFil: Zimmermann, S.. Albert-Ludwigs-Universität; AlemaniaFil: Zinonos, Z.. Georg-August-Universität; AlemaniaFil: Zinser, M.. Universität Mainz; AlemaniaFil: Ziolkowski, M.. Universität Siegen ; AlemaniaFil: Živković, L.. University of Belgrade; SerbiaFil: Zobernig, G.. University of Wisconsin; Estados UnidosFil: Zoccoli, A.. Università di Bologna; ItaliaFil: Nedden, M. zur. Humboldt University; AlemaniaFil: Zurzolo, G.. Università di Napoli; ItaliaFil: Zwalinski, L.. Cern - European Organization For Nuclear Research; SuizaFil: The ATLAS Collaboration. No especifica

Use of CRISTA mesopause region temperatures for the intercalibration of gound-based instruments

Most available ground-based (GB) techniques for measuring temperatures in the upper mesosphere to lower thermosphere (or mesopause region) have systematic errors that are comparable to those of orbiting instruments. Determining these unknown biasses would normally require colocated observations that are only seldom feasible. Satellite measurements can be used as a ‘‘transfer standard’’ between GB observations that are not colocated. In this context, even with a reproducible or known bias in the satellite data, the comparison is still meaningful. Since Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) temperatures cover the mesopause region with very good accuracy (statistical errors do not exceed 1.5 K and systematic uncertainties range from about 3–7.5 K), they are quite suitable for this purpose. Because of the nearly constant precision over the height range of interest, also rotational temperatures of airglow emissions from different altitudes like the OH and O2 bands (or the OI 558 nm line) can be successfully compared with each other. In spite of the limited number of overpasses during the relatively short CRISTA missions, the feasibility of such an intercalibration is demonstrated for widely separated GB sites. Here, the results obtained for GB measurements at eight different sites, using CRISTA-1 and CRISTA-2 data, are presented. For OH temperatures, the standard deviation between the different instruments is only 5.4 K, confirming previous estimates.Fil: Scheer, Jurgen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Gusev, O. A.. University of Wuppertal; AlemaniaFil: French, W. J. R.. Australian Antarctic Division; AustraliaFil: Hernandez, G.. University of Washington; Estados UnidosFil: Huppi, R.. State University Of Utah; Estados UnidosFil: Ammosov, P.. Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy; RusiaFil: Gavrilyeva, G. A.. Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy; RusiaFil: Offermann, D.. University of Wuppertal; Alemani

Measurement of the parity-violating asymmetry parameter αb and the helicity amplitudes for the decay Λ0b→J/ψ+Λ0 with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the parity-violating decay asymmetry parameter, αb, and the helicity amplitudes for the decay Λb0→J/ψ(μ+μ-)Λ0(pπ-) is reported. The analysis is based on 1400 Λb0 and Λ¯b0 baryons selected in 4.6  fb-1 of proton-proton collision data with a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. By combining the Λb0 and Λ¯b0 samples under the assumption of CP conservation, the value of αb is measured to be 0.30±0.16(stat)±0.06(syst). This measurement provides a test of theoretical models based on perturbative QCD or heavy-quark effective theory.Fil: F. Monticelli.Fil: Atlas Collaboration

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb^-1 of pp collision data at sqrt(s)=7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96 +0.26 -0.30 at Q^2=1.9 GeV^2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio sigma(W^+ + bar{c})/sigma(W^- + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s-bar{s} quark asymmetry.Fil: ATLAS Collaboration, G. AAd, F. Monticelli, et al. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Física La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Física La Plata; Argentina. Cern - European Organization For Nuclear Research; Suiz

International Guillain-Barré Syndrome Outcome Study (IGOS): protocol of a prospective observational cohort study on clinical and biological predictors of disease course and outcome in Guillain-Barré syndrome

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute polyradiculoneuropathy with a highly variable clinical presentation, course, and outcome. The factors that determine the clinical variation of GBS are poorly understood which complicates the care and treatment of individual patients. The protocol of the ongoing International GBS Outcome Study (IGOS), a prospective, observational, multi-centre cohort study that aims to identify the clinical and biological determinants and predictors of disease onset, subtype, course and outcome of GBS is presented here. Patients fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for GBS, regardless of age, disease severity, variant forms, or treatment, can participate if included within two weeks after onset of weakness. Information about demography, preceding infections, clinical features, diagnostic findings, treatment, course and outcome is collected. In addition, cerebrospinal fluid and serial blood samples for serum and DNA is collected at standard time points. The original aim was to include at least 1000 patients with a follow-up of 1-3 years. Data are collected via a web-based data entry system and stored anonymously. IGOS started in May 2012 and by January 2017 included more than 1400 participants from 143 active centres in 19 countries across 5 continents. The IGOS data/biobank is available for research projects conducted by expertise groups focusing on specific topics including epidemiology, diagnostic criteria, clinimetrics, electrophysiology, antecedent events, antibodies, genetics, prognostic modelling, treatment effects and long-term outcome of GBS. The IGOS will help to standardize the international collection of data and biosamples for future research of GBS. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01582763

LEADER-4

Objective: As glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists lower blood pressure (BP) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we examined BP control in relation to targets set by international bodies prior to randomization in the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of cardiovascular outcome Results (LEADER) trial. Methods: We analyzed baseline data from LEADER (NCT01179048), an ongoing phase 3B, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcomes trial examining the cardiovascular safety of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist liraglutide in 9340 people with T2DM from 32 countries [age (all mean +/- SD) 64 +/- 7.2 years, BMI 32.5 +/- 6.3 kg/m2, duration of diabetes 12.7 +/- 8.0 years], all of whom were at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results: A total of 81% (n = 7592) of participants had prior CVD and 90% (n = 8408) had a prior history of hypertension. Despite prescription of multiple antihypertensive agents at baseline, only 51% were treated to a target BP of less than 140/85 mmHg and only 26% to the recommended baseline BP target of less than 130/80 mmHg. In univariate analyses, those with prior CVD were prescribed more agents (P &lt; 0.001) and had lower BP than those without (137 +/- 18.8/78 +/- 10.6 mmHg versus 140 +/- 17.7/80 +/- 9.9 mmHg; P &lt; 0.001). In logistic regression analyses, residency in North America (64% treated to &lt;140/85 mmHg; 38% treated to &lt;130/80 mmHg) was the strongest predictor of BP control. Conclusion: These contemporary data confirm that BP remains insufficiently controlled in a large proportion of individuals with T2DM at high cardiovascular risk, particularly outside North America. Longitudinal data from the LEADER trial may provide further insights into BP control in relation to cardiovascular outcomes in this condition

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + +c¯¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯¯¯ quark asymmetry