A probabilistic paradigm for the parametric insurance of natural hazards.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.There is a pressing need for simple and reliable risk transfer mechanisms that can pay out quickly after natural disasters without delays caused by loss estimation, and the need for long historical claims records. One such approach, known as parametric insurance, pays out when a key hazard variable exceeds a predetermined threshold. However, this approach to catastrophe risk, based on making deterministic binary predictions of loss occurrence, is susceptible to basis risk (mismatch between payouts and realized losses). A more defensible approach is to issue probabilistic predictions of loss occurrence, which then allows uncertainty to be properly quantified, communicated, and evaluated. This study proposes a generic probabilistic framework for parametric trigger modeling based on logistic regression, and idealized modeling of potential damage given knowledge of a hazard variable. We also propose various novel methods for evaluating the quality and utility of such predictions as well as more traditional trigger indices. The methodology is demonstrated by application to flood-related disasters in Jamaica from 1998 to 2016 using gridded precipitation data as the hazard variable. A hydrologically motivated transformation is proposed for calculating potential damage from daily rainfall data. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the model has substantial skill at predicting the probability of occurrence of loss days as demonstrated by traditional goodness-of-fit measures (i.e., pseudo-R2 of 0.55) as well as probabilistic verification diagnostics such as receiver operating characteristics. Using conceptual models of decisionmaker expenses, we also demonstrate that the system can provide considerable utility to involved parties, e.g., insured parties, insurers, and risk managers.Benjamin Youngman’s research was supportedby the Willis Research Network

Involvement of Noradrenergic Neurotransmission in the Stress- but not Cocaine-Induced Reinstatement of Extinguished Cocaine-Induced Conditioned Place Preference in Mice: Role for β-2 Adrenergic Receptors

The responsiveness of central noradrenergic systems to stressors and cocaine poses norepinephrine as a potential common mechanism through which drug re-exposure and stressful stimuli promote relapse. This study investigated the role of noradrenergic systems in the reinstatement of extinguished cocaine-induced conditioned place preference by cocaine and stress in male C57BL/6 mice. Cocaine- (15 mg/kg, i.p.) induced conditioned place preference was extinguished by repeated exposure to the apparatus in the absence of drug and reestablished by a cocaine challenge (15 mg/kg), exposure to a stressor (6-min forced swim (FS); 20–25°C water), or administration of the α-2 adrenergic receptor (AR) antagonists yohimbine (2 mg/kg, i.p.) or BRL44408 (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.). To investigate the role of ARs, mice were administered the nonselective β-AR antagonist, propranolol (5, 10 mg/kg, i.p.), the α-1 AR antagonist, prazosin (1, 2 mg/kg, i.p.), or the α-2 AR agonist, clonidine (0.03, 0.3 mg/kg, i.p.) before reinstatement testing. Clonidine, prazosin, and propranolol failed to block cocaine-induced reinstatement. The low (0.03 mg/kg) but not high (0.3 mg/kg) clonidine dose fully blocked FS-induced reinstatement but not reinstatement by yohimbine. Propranolol, but not prazosin, blocked reinstatement by both yohimbine and FS, suggesting the involvement of β-ARs. The β-2 AR antagonist ICI-118551 (1 mg/kg, i.p.), but not the β-1 AR antagonist betaxolol (10 mg/kg, i.p.), also blocked FS-induced reinstatement. These findings suggest that stress-induced reinstatement requires noradrenergic signaling through β-2 ARs and that cocaine-induced reinstatement does not require AR activation, even though stimulation of central noradrenergic neurotransmission is sufficient to reinstate

Stress-Induced Reinstatement of Drug Seeking: 20 Years of Progress

In human addicts, drug relapse and craving are often provoked by stress. Since 1995, this clinical scenario has been studied using a rat model of stress-induced reinstatement of drug seeking. Here, we first discuss the generality of stress-induced reinstatement to different drugs of abuse, different stressors, and different behavioral procedures. We also discuss neuropharmacological mechanisms, and brain areas and circuits controlling stress-induced reinstatement of drug seeking. We conclude by discussing results from translational human laboratory studies and clinical trials that were inspired by results from rat studies on stress-induced reinstatement. Our main conclusions are (1) The phenomenon of stress-induced reinstatement, first shown with an intermittent footshock stressor in rats trained to self-administer heroin, generalizes to other abused drugs, including cocaine, methamphetamine, nicotine, and alcohol, and is also observed in the conditioned place preference model in rats and mice. This phenomenon, however, is stressor specific and not all stressors induce reinstatement of drug seeking. (2) Neuropharmacological studies indicate the involvement of corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF), noradrenaline, dopamine, glutamate, kappa/dynorphin, and several other peptide and neurotransmitter systems in stress-induced reinstatement. Neuropharmacology and circuitry studies indicate the involvement of CRF and noradrenaline transmission in bed nucleus of stria terminalis and central amygdala, and dopamine, CRF, kappa/dynorphin, and glutamate transmission in other components of the mesocorticolimbic dopamine system (ventral tegmental area, medial prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, and nucleus accumbens). (3) Translational human laboratory studies and a recent clinical trial study show the efficacy of alpha-2 adrenoceptor agonists in decreasing stress-induced drug craving and stress-induced initial heroin lapse

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come