Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).Comment: Latex document of 22 pages including 6 ps figures, in press in PNA

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors have proven efficacy in the treatment of panic disorder, obsessive–compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and social anxiety disorder. Accumulating data shows that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment can also be efficacious in patients with generalized anxiety disorder. This review summarizes the findings of randomized controlled trials of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment for generalized anxiety disorder, examines the strengths and weaknesses of other therapeutic approaches and considers potential new treatments for patients with this chronic and disabling anxiety disorder

Novel flaviviruses from mosquitoes: Mosquito-specific evolutionary lineages within the phylogenetic group of mosquito-borne flaviviruses

Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The attached file is the published version of the article

The Distances of the Magellanic Clouds

The present status of our knowledge of the distances to the Magellanic Clouds is evaluated from a post-Hipparcos perspective. After a brief summary of the effects of structure, reddening, age and metallicity, the primary distance indicators for the Large Magellanic Cloud are reviewed: The SN 1987A ring, Cepheids, RR Lyraes, Mira variables, and Eclipsing Binaries. Distances derived via these methods are weighted and combined to produce final "best" estimates for the Magellanic Clouds distance moduli.Comment: Invited review article to appear in ``Post Hipparcos Cosmic Candles'', F. Caputo & A. Heck (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publ., Dordrecht, in pres

GeV Gamma-Ray Attenuation and the High-Redshift UV Background

We present new calculations of the evolving UV background out to the epoch of cosmological reionization and make predictions for the amount of GeV gamma-ray attenuation by electron-positron pair production. Our results are based on recent semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, which provide predictions of the dust-extinguished UV radiation field due to starlight, and empirical estimates of the contribution due to quasars. We account for the reprocessing of ionizing photons by the intergalactic medium. We test whether our models can reproduce estimates of the ionizing background at high redshift from flux decrement analysis and proximity effect measurements from quasar spectra, and identify a range of models that can satisfy these constraints. Pair-production against soft diffuse photons leads to a spectral cutoff feature for gamma rays observed between 10 and 100 GeV. This cutoff varies with redshift and the assumed star formation and quasar evolution models. We find only negligible amounts of absorption for gamma rays observed below 10 GeV for any emission redshift. With observations of high-redshift sources in sufficient numbers by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and new ground-based instruments it should be possible to constrain the extragalactic background light in the UV and optical portion of the spectrum.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS, this version includes minor correction

Bats Use Magnetite to Detect the Earth's Magnetic Field

While the role of magnetic cues for compass orientation has been confirmed in numerous animals, the mechanism of detection is still debated. Two hypotheses have been proposed, one based on a light dependent mechanism, apparently used by birds and another based on a “compass organelle” containing the iron oxide particles magnetite (Fe3O4). Bats have recently been shown to use magnetic cues for compass orientation but the method by which they detect the Earth's magnetic field remains unknown. Here we use the classic “Kalmijn-Blakemore” pulse re-magnetization experiment, whereby the polarity of cellular magnetite is reversed. The results demonstrate that the big brown bat Eptesicus fuscus uses single domain magnetite to detect the Earths magnetic field and the response indicates a polarity based receptor. Polarity detection is a prerequisite for the use of magnetite as a compass and suggests that big brown bats use magnetite to detect the magnetic field as a compass. Our results indicate the possibility that sensory cells in bats contain freely rotating magnetite particles, which appears not to be the case in birds. It is crucial that the ultrastructure of the magnetite containing magnetoreceptors is described for our understanding of magnetoreception in animals

Microlensing search towards M31

We present the first results of the analysis of data collected during the 1998-99 observational campaign at the 1.3 meter McGraw-Hill Telescope, towards the Andromeda galaxy (M31), aimed to the detection of gravitational microlensing effects as a probe of the presence of dark matter in our and in M31 halo. The analysis is performed using the pixel lensing technique, which consists in the study of flux variations of unresolved sources and has been proposed and implemented by the AGAPE collaboration. We carry out a shape analysis by demanding that the detected flux variations be achromatic and compatible with a Paczynski light curve. We apply the Durbin-Watson hypothesis test to the residuals. Furthermore, we consider the background of variables sources. Finally five candidate microlensing events emerge from our selection. Comparing with the predictions of a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming a standard spherical model for the M31 and Galactic haloes, and typical values for the MACHO mass, we find that our events are only marginally consistent with the distribution of observable parameters predicted by the simulation.Comment: 13 pages, To appear in A&

Survivability Is More Fundamental Than Evolvability

For a lineage to survive over long time periods, it must sometimes change. This has given rise to the term evolvability, meaning the tendency to produce adaptive variation. One lineage may be superior to another in terms of its current standing variation, or it may tend to produce more adaptive variation. However, evolutionary outcomes depend on more than standing variation and produced adaptive variation: deleterious variation also matters. Evolvability, as most commonly interpreted, is not predictive of evolutionary outcomes. Here, we define a predictive measure of the evolutionary success of a lineage that we call the k-survivability, defined as the probability that the lineage avoids extinction for k generations. We estimate the k-survivability using multiple experimental replicates. Because we measure evolutionary outcomes, the initial standing variation, the full spectrum of generated variation, and the heritability of that variation are all incorporated. Survivability also accounts for the decreased joint likelihood of extinction of sub-lineages when they 1) disperse in space, or 2) diversify in lifestyle. We illustrate measurement of survivability with in silico models, and suggest that it may also be measured in vivo using multiple longitudinal replicates. The k-survivability is a metric that enables the quantitative study of, for example, the evolution of 1) mutation rates, 2) dispersal mechanisms, 3) the genotype-phenotype map, and 4) sexual reproduction, in temporally and spatially fluctuating environments. Although these disparate phenomena evolve by well-understood microevolutionary rules, they are also subject to the macroevolutionary constraint of long-term survivability

Two chemically similar stellar overdensities on opposite sides of the plane of the Galaxy

Our Galaxy is thought to have undergone an active evolutionary history dominated by star formation, the accretion of cold gas, and, in particular, mergers up to 10 gigayear ago. The stellar halo reveals rich fossil evidence of these interactions in the form of stellar streams, substructures, and chemically distinct stellar components. The impact of dwarf galaxy mergers on the content and morphology of the Galactic disk is still being explored. Recent studies have identified kinematically distinct stellar substructures and moving groups, which may have extragalactic origin. However, there is mounting evidence that stellar overdensities at the outer disk/halo interface could have been caused by the interaction of a dwarf galaxy with the disk. Here we report detailed spectroscopic analysis of 14 stars drawn from two stellar overdensities, each lying about 5 kiloparsecs above and below the Galactic plane - locations suggestive of association with the stellar halo. However, we find that the chemical compositions of these stars are almost identical, both within and between these groups, and closely match the abundance patterns of the Milky Way disk stars. This study hence provides compelling evidence that these stars originate from the disk and the overdensities they are part of were created by tidal interactions of the disk with passing or merging dwarf galaxies.Comment: accepted for publication in Natur