Supplemental Information 4: Text for supplementary tables and files

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

International audienc

High-throughput caveolar proteomic signature profile for maternal binge alcohol consumption

Currently, no single marker is sensitive and specific enough to be considered a reliable biomarker for prenatal alcohol exposure. To identify a proteomic signature profile for maternal alcohol consumption, we performed high throughput proteomics on maternal endothelial caveolae exposed to moderate binge-like alcohol conditions. In these specialized lipid ordered microdomains which contain a rich assembly of proteins, we demonstrate that moderate binge-like alcohol resulted in a distinctive maternal caveolar proteomic signature with important proteins being dramatically decreased/knocked out in the alcoholic profile. These proteins span from histones and basic structural proteins like tubulin α to proteins involved in trafficking, deubiquitination, cell signaling, and cell-cell adhesion. The profile also suggests an important role for the mother and the utero-placental compartment in the pathogenesis of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD). These data demonstrate that the caveolar proteomic signature created by alcohol shows a promising direction for early detection of FASD

The mid- distance dispersal optimum, evidence from a mixed- model climate vulnerability analysis of an edaphic endemic shrub

Aim: Predicting accurate species responses to climate change in fragmented land-scapes is challenging in conservation biogeography. We assessed the role of dispersal, including long- distance dispersal (LDD), for the long- term persistence of a rare plant species (Vella pseudocytisus subsp. paui) under current climate conditions and four fu-ture climate scenarios; and analysed the effect of competition for its regional survival. Location: Ester Iberian system, Aragón, Spain. Methods: We used BioMove, a linked modelling platform that integrates demographic, dispersal and competition features with biogeographic predictions of range dynamics, and whose results can inform risk assessments and conservation planning. We linked Vella’s population dynamics and habitat suitability models with its well- documented life history traits and ecological characteristics to enhance our understanding of its inherent vulnerability to dispersal, competitive interactions and climate change. Results: We found thresholds in the effect of long dispersal distances on population persistence, suggesting a mid- distance optimum, which reduces mortality risk associ-ated with the increasing proportion of LDD seeds. Moreover, increasing the propor-tion of LDD propagules reduces Vella’s ability to compete in currently occupied and nearby unoccupied habitats by reducing the number of local recruitments. Main conclusions: Whereas LDD ability is generally assumed to be beneficial for the long- term persistence of plant species in fragmented landscapes, our results suggest that moderate to high distances between new colonization increase the species’ dispersal- related mortality. Higher numbers of LDD events reduce the number of local propagules in established populations, reducing regional survival for Vella. Moreover, associated range shifts of potentially better climate- adapted competitors could pre-vent Vella individuals from colonizing new climatically suitable habitats. These findings can support development of more efficient conservation management strategies for establishing new population patches to mitigate population losses due to climate change. Our findings may also apply as a framework for other narrowly distributed endemic shrub species, particularly edaphic endemics