The Political Influence of Older Americans

This essay explores the future prospects for the political influence of older Americans. Some analysts contend that the next fifty years will bring a marked increase in the political influence of the elderly. Others argue that the aged are unlikely to become a significant political influence at any time in the forseeable future. We review the relevant evidence and conclude that it is not entirely consistent with either of these positions. Our analysis suggests a third alternative, that there will be a marked increase in the political resources of the elderly, which will not necessarily translate into an increase in political influence

Decomposing diversification effect: evidence from the U.S. property-liability insurance industry

Prior literature suggests that diversified property-liability (P/L) insurers underperform their focused counterparts. While most studies focus on insurers’ overall performance, there is an absence of evidence regarding whether the underperformance is driven by underwriting or investment profitability. The authors develop and test hypotheses of diversification’s separate effect on underwriting and investing in the U.S. property-liability (P/L) insurance industry. It is found that diversified insurers outperform their focused counterparts in terms of investment return, but that they underperform in terms of underwriting profitability. The results are robust to corrections for endogeneity bias and a matched sample analysis

Age structure, dispersion and diet of a population of stoats (Mustela erminea) in southern Fiordland during the decline phase of the beechmast cycle

The dispersion, age structure and diet of stoats (Mustela erminea) in beech forest in the Borland and Grebe Valleys, Fiordland National Park, were examined during December and January 2000/01, 20 months after a heavy seed-fall in 1999. Thirty trap stations were set along a 38-km transect through almost continuous beech forest, at least 1 km apart. Mice were very scarce (nights, C/100TN) along two standard index lines placed at either end of the transect, compared with November 1999 (>60/100TN), but mice were detected (from footprints in stoat tunnels) along an 8 km central section of the transect (stations 14-22). Live trapping with one trap per station (total 317.5 trap nights) in December 2000 caught 2 female and 23 male stoats, of which 10 (including both females) were radio collared. The minimum range lengths of the two females along the transect represented by the trap line were 2.2 and 6.0 km; those of eight radio-tracked males averaged 2.9 ± 1.7 km. Stations 14-22 tended to be visited more often, by more marked individual stoats, than the other 21 stations. Fenn trapping at the same 30 sites, but with multiple traps per station (1333.5 trap nights), in late January 2001 collected carcasses of 35 males and 28 females (including 12 of the marked live-trapped ones). Another two marked males were recovered dead. The stoat population showed no sign of chronic nutritional stress (average fat reserve index = 2.8 on a scale of 1-4 where 4 = highest fat content); and only one of 63 guts analysed was empty. Nevertheless, all 76 stoats handled were adults with 1-3 cementum annuli in their teeth, showing that reproduction had failed that season. Prey categories recorded in descending frequency of occurrence were birds, carabid beetle (ground beetle), weta, possum, rat, and mouse. The frequencies of occurrence of mice and birds in the diet of these stoats (10% and 48%, respectively) were quite different from those in stoats collected in Pig Creek, a tributary of the Borland River (87%, 5%), 12 months previously when mice were still abundant. Five of the six stoat guts containing mice were collected within 1 km of stations 14-22

Satisfaction with democracy and voter turnout

Numerous studies conclude that countries in which citizens express higher levels of satisfaction with democracy also tend to display higher levels of voter turnout in national elections. Yet it is difficult to draw causal inferences from this positive cross-sectional relationship, because democracies feature many historical, cultural, and institutional differences that are not easily controlled for in cross-sectional comparisons. We apply an alternative, temporal approach to this issue by asking the question: Are over-time declines (increases) in aggregate levels of satisfaction within democracies associated with increases (declines) in levels of voter turnout within these democracies? Our temporal analysis of this relationship in 12 democracies over the period 1976–2011 reveals a pattern that is the opposite of that suggested by previous cross-sectional studies: namely, we find that over-time increases in citizens’ satisfaction with democracy are associated with significant decreases in voter turnout in national elections in these countries. </jats:p

A mixed methods multiple case study of implementation as usual in children’s social service organizations: study protocol

Background Improving quality in children’s mental health and social service settings will require implementation strategies capable of moving effective treatments and other innovations (e.g., assessment tools) into routine care. It is likely that efforts to identify, develop, and refine implementation strategies will be more successful if they are informed by relevant stakeholders and are responsive to the strengths and limitations of the contexts and implementation processes identified in usual care settings. This study will describe: the types of implementation strategies used; how organizational leaders make decisions about what to implement and how to approach the implementation process; organizational stakeholders’ perceptions of different implementation strategies; and the potential influence of organizational culture and climate on implementation strategy selection, implementation decision-making, and stakeholders’ perceptions of implementation strategies. Methods/design This study is a mixed methods multiple case study of seven children’s social service organizations in one Midwestern city in the United States that compose the control group of a larger randomized controlled trial. Qualitative data will include semi-structured interviews with organizational leaders (e.g., CEOs/directors, clinical directors, program managers) and a review of documents (e.g., implementation and quality improvement plans, program manuals, etc.) that will shed light on implementation decision-making and specific implementation strategies that are used to implement new programs and practices. Additionally, focus groups with clinicians will explore their perceptions of a range of implementation strategies. This qualitative work will inform the development of a Web-based survey that will assess the perceived effectiveness, relative importance, acceptability, feasibility, and appropriateness of implementation strategies from the perspective of both clinicians and organizational leaders. Finally, the Organizational Social Context measure will be used to assess organizational culture and climate. Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods data will be analyzed and interpreted at the case level as well as across cases in order to highlight meaningful similarities, differences, and site-specific experiences. Discussion This study is designed to inform efforts to develop more effective implementation strategies by fully describing the implementation experiences of a sample of community-based organizations that provide mental health services to youth in one Midwestern city

Connectionist natural language parsing

The key developments of two decades of connectionist parsing are reviewed. Connectionist parsers are assessed according to their ability to learn to represent syntactic structures from examples automatically, without being presented with symbolic grammar rules. This review also considers the extent to which connectionist parsers offer computational models of human sentence processing and provide plausible accounts of psycholinguistic data. In considering these issues, special attention is paid to the level of realism, the nature of the modularity, and the type of processing that is to be found in a wide range of parsers

Genome landscapes and bacteriophage codon usage

Across all kingdoms of biological life, protein-coding genes exhibit unequal usage of synonmous codons. Although alternative theories abound, translational selection has been accepted as an important mechanism that shapes the patterns of codon usage in prokaryotes and simple eukaryotes. Here we analyze patterns of codon usage across 74 diverse bacteriophages that infect E. coli, P. aeruginosa and L. lactis as their primary host. We introduce the concept of a `genome landscape,' which helps reveal non-trivial, long-range patterns in codon usage across a genome. We develop a series of randomization tests that allow us to interrogate the significance of one aspect of codon usage, such a GC content, while controlling for another aspect, such as adaptation to host-preferred codons. We find that 33 phage genomes exhibit highly non-random patterns in their GC3-content, use of host-preferred codons, or both. We show that the head and tail proteins of these phages exhibit significant bias towards host-preferred codons, relative to the non-structural phage proteins. Our results support the hypothesis of translational selection on viral genes for host-preferred codons, over a broad range of bacteriophages.Comment: 9 Color Figures, 5 Tables, 53 Reference

Spatial and temporal scales of coral reef fish ecological research and management: a systematic map protocol

This is the final version. Available on open access from BMC via the DOI in this recordBackground Coral reefs are rapidly changing in response to local and global stressors. Research to better understand and inform the management of these stressors is burgeoning. However, in situ studies of coral reef ecology are constrained by complex logistics and limited resources. Many reef studies are also hampered by the scale-dependent nature of ecological patterns, and inferences made on causal relationships within coral reef systems are limited by the scales of observation. This is because most socio-ecological studies are conducted at scales relevant to the phenomenon of interest. However, management often occurs across a significantly broader, often geopolitical, range of scales. While there is a critical need for incisive coral reef management actions at relevant spatial and temporal scales, it remains unclear to what extent the scales of empirical study overlap with the scales at which management inferences and recommendations are made. This systematic map protocol will evaluate this potential scale mismatch with the goal of raising awareness about the significance of effectively addressing and reporting the scales at which researchers collect data and make assumptions. Methods We will use the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence (CEE) systematic mapping guidelines to identify relevant studies using a framework-based synthesis to summarise the spatial and temporal scales of coral reef fish ecology research and the scales at which management inferences or recommendations are made. Using tested predefined terms, we will search for relevant published academic and grey literature, including bibliographic databases, web-based search engines, and organisational websites. Inclusion criteria for the evidence map are empirical studies that focus on coral reef fish ecological organisation and processes, those informing management interventions and policy decisions, and management documents that cite coral reef research for management decision-making. Study results will be displayed graphically using data matrices and heat maps. This is the first attempt to systematically assess and compare the scales of socio-ecological research conducted on coral reef systems with their management.NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Progra

Preparation, structured deliberate practice and decision making in elite level football: The case study of Gary Neville (Manchester United FC and England)

Decision making in elite level sporting competition is often regarded as distinguishing success from failure. As an intricate brain-based process it is unlike other physical processes because it is invisible and is typically only evidenced after the event. This case study shows how an individual achieved great success in elite level professional football through consistent positive decision making on and off the field of play. Through prolonged interviewing, Gary Neville, a player from Manchester United Football Club, explored personal behaviours, the structure and activities of deliberate practice and his professional choices in match preparation. His career-long devotion to purposeful organised practice was focused on cognition, physical preparation, context-relative physical action and refined repetition to optimise his mental comfort while enhancing his match day performances. This approach was underpinned by diligent personal and collective organisation and by concerted action. Results provide an insight into the categorical nature of his deliberate practice, sport-specific information processing and match-based decision making. At the operational level, his process was mediated by a complex mental representation of ongoing and anticipated game situations; these representations were continuously updated during each match. Allowing for the limitations of the design, implications are provided for developmental and educational coaching, match preparation, deliberate practice activity and improved use of the performance analysis software packages in professional football

Operationalizing the ‘pragmatic’ measures construct using a stakeholder feedback and a multi-method approach

Abstract Context Implementation science measures are rarely used by stakeholders to inform and enhance clinical program change. Little is known about what makes implementation measures pragmatic (i.e., practical) for use in community settings; thus, the present study’s objective was to generate a clinical stakeholder-driven operationalization of a pragmatic measures construct. Evidence acquisition The pragmatic measures construct was defined using: 1) a systematic literature review to identify dimensions of the construct using PsycINFO and PubMed databases, and 2) interviews with an international stakeholder panel (N = 7) who were asked about their perspectives of pragmatic measures. Evidence synthesis Combined results from the systematic literature review and stakeholder interviews revealed a final list of 47 short statements (e.g., feasible, low cost, brief) describing pragmatic measures, which will allow for the development of a rigorous, stakeholder-driven conceptualization of the pragmatic measures construct. Conclusions Results revealed significant overlap between terms related to the pragmatic construct in the existing literature and stakeholder interviews. However, a number of terms were unique to each methodology. This underscores the importance of understanding stakeholder perspectives of criteria measuring the pragmatic construct. These results will be used to inform future phases of the project where stakeholders will determine the relative importance and clarity of each dimension of the pragmatic construct, as well as their priorities for the pragmatic dimensions. Taken together, these results will be incorporated into a pragmatic rating system for existing implementation science measures to support implementation science and practice