A comprehensive assessment of RCP4.5 projections and bias-correction techniques in a complex coastal karstic aquifer in the Mediterranean

This study aims to assess the projected precipitation and temperature changes at the coastal karstic aquifer of Salento (Apulia, Southern Italy) under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP4.5. For this purpose, an ensemble of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected. Eight bias-correction (BC) methods were applied at daily time steps, and their results were assessed on monthly and annual time steps, using daily records from 19 and 11 precipitation and temperature (minimum and maximum) stations, respectively, for the period 1960–2005. Missing data in the observed dataset were filled-in applying the best performing techniques out of the 5 that were employed and tested. The Linear Scaling and the Power Transformation were found to be the most effective methods for precipitation BC at the case study, while all methods performed equally well in correcting air temperature datasets. Results of future climate projections show a decrease in precipitation of about 6% and an increase in temperature of 2°C until the end of this century, compared to the historical period (1971–2005). This study forms the first comprehensive attempt to test the scientific literature’s most widely used bias-correction methods over the study area. The case study may be considered a benchmark for circum-Mediterranean regions because of its high geomorphological and structural complexity, regional size, surface water scarcity, and significant water withdrawals for human activities

Rainfall–runoff simulations to assess the potential of SuDS for mitigating flooding in highly urbanized catchments

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) constitute an alternative to conventional drainage when managing stormwater in cities, reducing the impact of urbanization by decreasing the amount of runoff generated by a rainfall event. This paper shows the potential benefits of installing different types of SuDS in preventing flooding in comparison with the common urban drainage strategies consisting of sewer networks of manholes and pipes. The impact of these systems on urban water was studied using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which are useful tools when both delineating catchments and parameterizing the elements that define a stormwater drainage system. Taking these GIS-based data as inputs, a series of rainfall–runoff simulations were run in a real catchment located in the city of Donostia (Northern Spain) using stormwater computer models, in order to compare the flow rates and depths produced by a design storm before and after installing SuDS. The proposed methodology overcomes the lack of precision found in former GIS-based stormwater approaches when dealing with the modeling of highly urbanized catchments, while the results demonstrated the usefulness of these systems in reducing the volume of water generated after a rainfall event and their ability to prevent localized flooding and surcharges along the sewer network

Performance assessment of nitrate leaching models for highly vulnerable soils used in low-input farming based on lysimeter data

[EN] The agricultural sector faces the challenge of ensuring food security without an excessive burden on the environment. Simulationmodels provide excellent instruments for researchers to gainmore insight into relevant processes and best agricultural practices and provide tools for planners for decision making support. The extent to which models are capable of reliable extrapolation and prediction is important for exploring new farming systems or assessing the impacts of future land and climate changes. A performance assessmentwas conducted by testing six detailed state-of-the-artmodels for simulation of nitrate leaching (ARMOSA, COUPMODEL, DAISY, EPIC, SIMWASER/STOTRASIM, SWAP/ANIMO) for lysimeter data of the Wagna experimental field station in Eastern Austria, where the soil is highly vulnerable to nitrate leaching. Three consecutive phases were distinguished to gain insight in the predictive power of themodels: 1) a blind test for 2005 2008 in which only soil hydraulic characteristics, meteorological data and information about the agricultural management were accessible; 2) a calibration for the same period in which essential information on field observations was additionally available to the modellers; and 3) a validation for 2009 2011 with the corresponding type of data available as for the blind test. A set of statistical metrics (mean absolute error, root mean squared error, index of agreement,model efficiency, root relative squared error, Pearson's linear correlation coefficient) was applied for testing the results and comparing the models. None of the models performed good for all of the statistical metrics. Models designed for nitrate leaching in high-input farming systems had difficulties in accurately predicting leaching in low-input farming systems that are strongly influenced by the retention of nitrogen in catch crops and nitrogen fixation by legumes. An accurate calibration does not guarantee a good predictive power of the model. Nevertheless all models were able to identify years and crops with high- and low-leaching rates.This research was made possible by the GENESIS project of the EU 7th Framework Programme (Project No. 226536; FP7-ENV-2008-1). We are grateful for the experimental data provided by Joanneum Raum (Graz, Austria). The modelling team of Democritus University of Thrace would like to thank Per-Erik Jansson (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden) for his valuable help during the application of Coup Model.Groenendijk, P.; Heinen, M.; Klammler, G.; Fank, J.; Kupfersberger, H.; Pisinaras, V.; Gemitzi, A.... (2014). Performance assessment of nitrate leaching models for highly vulnerable soils used in low-input farming based on lysimeter data. Science of the Total Environment. 499:463-480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.002S46348049

COSMOS-Europe : a European network of cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture sensors

We thank TERENO (Terrestrial Environmental Observatories), funded by the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft for the financing and maintenance of CRNS stations. We acknowledge financial support by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) of the research unit FOR 2694 Cosmic Sense (grant no. 357874777) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education of the Research BioökonomieREVIER, Digitales Geosystem – Rheinisches Revier project (grant no. 031B0918A). COSMOS-UK has been supported financially by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/R016429/1). The Olocau experimental watershed is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research project TETISCHANGE (grant no. RTI2018-093717-BI00). The Calderona experimental site is partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research projects CEHYRFO-MED (grant no. CGL2017-86839- C3-2-R) and SILVADAPT.NET (grant no. RED2018-102719-T) and the LIFE project RESILIENT FORESTS (grant no. LIFE17 CCA/ES/000063). The University of Bristol’s Sheepdrove sites have been supported by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council through a number of projects (grant nos. NE/M003086/1, NE/R004897/1, and NE/T005645/1) and by the International Atomic Energy Agency of the United Nations (grant no. CRP D12014). Acknowledgements. We thank Peter Strauss and Gerhab Rab from the Institute for Land and Water Management Research, Federal Agency for Water Management Austria, Petzenkirchen, Austria. We thank Trenton Franz from the School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States. We also thank Carmen Zengerle, Mandy Kasner, Felix Pohl, and Solveig Landmark, UFZ Leipzig, for supporting field calibration, lab analysis, and data processing. We furthermore thank Daniel Dolfus, Marius Schmidt, Ansgar Weuthen, and Bernd Schilling, Forschungszentrum Jülich, Germany. The COSMOS-UK project team is thanked for making its data available to COSMOS-Europe. Luca Stevanato is thanked for the technical details about the Finapp sensor. The stations at Cunnersdorf, Lindenberg, and Harzgerode have been supported by Falk Böttcher, Frank Beyrich, and Petra Fude, German Weather Service (DWD). The Zerbst site has been supported by Getec Green Energy GmbH and Jörg Kachelmann (Meteologix AG). The CESBIO sites have been supported by the CNES TOSCA program. The ERA5-Land data are provided by ECMWF (Muñoz Sabater, 2021). The Jena dataset was retrieved at the site of The Jena Experiment, operated by DFG research unit FOR 1451.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Investigating the Effects of Agricultural Water Management in a Mediterranean Coastal Aquifer under Current and Projected Climate Conditions

Coastal delta plains are areas with high agricultural potential for the Mediterranean region because of their high soil fertility, but they also constitute fragile systems in terms of water resources management because of the interaction of underlying aquifers with the sea. Such a case is the Pinios River delta plain located in central Greece, which also constitutes a significant ecosystem. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and SEAWAT models were combined in order to simulate the impact of current water resources management practices in main groundwater budget components and groundwater salinization of the shallow aquifer developed in the area. Moreover, potential climate change impact was investigated using climate data from Regional Climate Model for two projected periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and two sea level rise scenarios (increase by 0.5 and 1 m). Modeling results are providing significant insight: although the contribution of the river to groundwater inflows is significant, direct groundwater recharge from precipitation was found to be higher, while capillary rise constitutes a major part of groundwater outflows from the aquifer. Moreover, during the simulation period, groundwater flow from the aquifer to the sea were found to be higher than the inflows of seawater to the aquifer. Regarding climate change impact assessment, the results indicate that the variability in groundwater recharge posed by the high variability of precipitation during the projected periods is increasing the aquifer’s deterioration potential of both its quantity and quality status, the latter expressed by the increased groundwater Cl− concentration. This evidence becomes more significant because of the limited groundwater storage capacity of the aquifer. Concerning sea level rise, it was found to be less significant in terms of groundwater salinization impact compared to the decrease in groundwater recharge and increase in crop water needs

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Need and Groundwater Resources in Pinios Basin

Initially an area-differentiated modelling of groundwater recharge in River Pinios Basin (Greece) was carried out for the reference period 1971–2000 based on the mGROWA model. Subsequently, the model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and irrigation need. For this purpose one bias-corrected RCM–GCM combination from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of climate models for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) have been used as input data for the projected periods 2011–2040 and 2040–2070 and 2700–2100. Results of the mGROWA model runs for the projected periods and the two emission scenarios indicate a different evolution of groundwater recharge and a general increase in irrigation need, however with different degrees of intensity

ESTABLISHING A HYDROLOGIC OBSERVATORY TO SUPPORT THE DETERMINATION OF THE LONG-TERM AVAILABLE (GROUND-) WATER RESOURCES IN THESSALY BASIN (CENTRAL GREECE)

In order to maintain agriculture as a key economic sector in Thessaly basin it is mandatory to adapt the regional (ground-)water management to the renewable (ground-)water resources. The obstacles impeding the implementation of regionally adapted and efficient (ground-)water management strategies are manifold. Due to lack of reliable time series from meteorological and runoff monitoring networks the available renewable groundwater resources cannot be quantified with high accuracy. The lack of vegetation specific parameters additionally impedes the model-based determination of actual evapotranspiration rates. Thus, even the possibilities to determine the total available renewable water resources (total runoff) is limited. Against the background that in situ groundwater recharge generation contributes only to a small extent to the available groundwater resources in Thessaly basin, it is also part of the overall research strategy of a Greek – German cooperation project to determine the lateral groundwater inflow from adjacent mountainous aquifers into the Thessaly basin. For this purpose state-of-the-art devices to quantify hydrologic fluxes in detail have been installed in a test site located in the transition zone of the basin and adjacent mountains (Agia observatory): (a) 2 fully equipped precipitation and climate stations, (b) A wireless sensor network for measuring spatial soil water content variability as a data basis for determining vegetation specific evapotranspiration parameters, and (c) A groundwater observation network and pumping wells for determining hydraulic parameters and seasonal patterns of groundwater velocity in the transition zone. The derived parameters and lateral groundwater flow rates will then additionally be used to support the implementation and adaptation of the water balance model mGROWA (Herrmann et al. 2015) in the entire Thessaly basin, especially with regard to the model-based assessment of the sustainably available groundwater resources

Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources’ quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021–2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981–2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM–GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021–2100 was about − 80 mm, ranging between − 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB